Sergey Cheban, RTA
The closer Moldova is to the parliamentary elections, the more acute is the struggle. No one doubted that this election would be special, but it seems we do not realize the extent. Experts familiar with our local realities say with one voice that dark clouds are gathering over the leader of the election race – the Party of Socialists.
The ‘European order’ that has developed in recent years in the captured state suggests that there are already enough heavy folders with the justification of claims to the PSRM and its leader President Dodon. How the Plahotniuc’s regime will use them is another point, but even now there are talks about the removal of socialists from the elections.
Here is the chronology of the attack:
- On January 16, the Communist Party demanded to cancel the registration of the PSRM in the parliamentary elections;
- On February 4, the Liberal Party demanded to exclude the PSRM from the election race due to funding from abroad;
- On February 5, the Shor Party demanded the CEC to punish the PSRM for receiving indirect support from abroad;
- On February 7, the Head of the Congress of Moldovan Diasporas in Russia Alexander Kalinin told that Igor Dodon returned to Moldova by plane of Russian Gazprom and brought from Moscow $20 million for the election campaign of the socialist party, and promised to request the Prosecutor General to investigate the PSRM financing from abroad.
The purposes and trends of such actions are clear. Should the most popular party of Moldova, supported by the President, be afraid of such a tough scenario?
There are reasons to believe that the ‘coordinator’ has prepared a much more sophisticated test of strength for the Party of Socialists. Just to ‘ban’ the socialists like Our Party of Renato Usatii is overkill even for Plahotniuc. They have been messing with democracy in Moldova for several years, but still tried to justify it somehow. To remove socialists from the election race is possible, but it will be a gesture of fear and despair, a challenge to international partners. This is a too weak and risky position.
There is another, more sophisticated way – to create such conditions for the PSRM to find itself in a dead-end situation and choose between two bad options. Plahotniuc may try to play the Party of Socialists off against their leader Dodon and maximally involve the President in the review of the old basket with a heap of dirty political laundry – damaging information – which obviously will cast a shadow on the whole party.
Most likely, Plahotniuc now pursues a simple and understandable purpose – to fiercely bargain in advance with the main opponents on the composition of the Parliament and the Government and to make his life easier in the future. The leader of the Democratic Party would prefer to minimize the use of judicial and administrative pressure in the counting of votes and determining the winners. Therefore, Plahotniuc is looking for a formula that will allow to maintain power hardly shedding any blood and keep leadership in making decisions about the future of the country.
On the right flank, through his kum (godfather of his child), Speaker of Parliament Andrian Candu, the oligarch kindly invited ACUM leaders Sandu and Nastase in the coalition. If they are in power, Plahotniuc’s relations with Europe will get better.
On the Russian track, the coordinator is following the path of threats. Hints at the removal of the socialist party from the race for the formal reason of external “interference” in the elections can be considered a simple blackmail. Plahotniuc offers Moscow a choice between the loss of all its investments in the Dodon and the PSRM and some kind of compromise solution according to which the socialists will become part of the power structure that will eventually be controlled by the PDM.
The defining moment for Igor Dodon starts somewhere here. Socialists, who confidently lead the election race, are offered a classic choice between war and dishonour. To agree to a compromise is tantamount to weakness, and if the PSRM concedes its position to the Democrats at a critical moment, neither the voters nor the oligarchs from the Democratic Party will forgive them. In this case the fate of Usatii awaits Dodon and his party. The President, apparently, understands it, and gradually prepares the ground for protests.
Three years ago, Dodon made a tactical maneuver and stopped popular protests against the Filip government for the President’s office. Now his election, legitimacy in the eyes of the population – is the main trump card, which cannot be bartered for anything. This means that the President needs to go to the end: by and large, he has no other options to win. The only question is whether the will and determination of his supporters will be enough to resist the honeypot and threats of Plahotniuc. Now all resources, from Ilan Shor to fake pro-Russian forces like the Party of Regions, will be concentrated on the PSRM. The coordinator has prepared a tough obstacle course for the socialists, at each stage of which the PDM emissaries will offer to ‘negotiate’.
However, there is no alternative, and the Party of Socialists must go all the way, realizing that Plahotniuc has already placed real wolf holes on all the bypass paths. I want to believe that Igor Dodon understands this.
