Expert: Overthrow of Poroshenko May Promote Settlement in Donbas, Kosovo and Transdniestria

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According to Sergey Cheban, Brussels and Moscow are preparing a ‘package’ of big deals on conflicts in Europe. Petro Poroshenko’s departure was the main condition for the ‘reset’, the expert believes, as the conflict in the East of Ukraine is the most acute and unpredictable. Cooling and delimitation Cheban points out that until 2014 the overall situation around the frozen conflicts in Europe developed quite positively, and perhaps some success on the Dniester and in Serbia would have been achieved much earlier. “By that time, five years have passed since the last aggravation of the ‘frozen conflicts’ problem, talking about the situation in South Ossetia. The 2008 events had several peculiar features: Saakashvili’s actions were a clear provocation, and it quickly became clear that none of Georgia’s allies were in a hurry to rescue the future Governor of Odessa. Karma was not on the side of Tbilisi, and relations between Europe and Russia were unlike the current – Brussels had hopes for a progressive and liberal Medvedev. As a result, everyone forgot about the Caucasus after 5 years,” the expert recalls. According to the author, debates may last forever about who’s interested in once emerged and still simmering conflicts in Europe, however in reality they “rather hinder, than bring political dividends”. “The example of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is very telling: the war began again there 15 years later, which almost ruined relations between Brussels and Moscow in 2008. Everything settled down back then, but the political elites in Europe and Russia understood that they need to do something with the problem of unrecognized states,” says Cheban. According to the expert, the next in the list of problem regions was the unrecognized Transdniestria, where the authoritarian regime of the first leader of the so-called ‘TMR’ Igor Smirnov changed. “There was clear progress in Transdniestria in 2011-2013 such as the launch of the railway, reset of the 5+2 format and what the media called ‘small actions tactics’.  However, in 2014 there was the Crimea, Donbas, and progress on Transdniestria was thrown away for several years,” the expert explains. Now, according to the analyst, the search for a solution to the frozen conflicts begins with renewed vigour amid an acute shortage of good news in EU – Russia relations. Replacement of toxic and corrupt Petro Poroshenko with people’s favorite Zelensky was a key step in this process, the expert believes. Write Donbas, keep 2 in mind Sergey Cheban is sure that progress on Donbas can become a strong impetus to the settlement in Kosovo and Transdniestria. The idea is simple: if it has worked where were shootings yesterday, then it will work where everything has been under control for many years, he says. “We have long seen that Kosovo and Transdniestria are already bargaining and discussing possible formats that will suit both Moscow and the European Union. But it is illogical, reckless and cynical from all points of view to take on the settlement of these conflicts now, when military actions have not actually stopped in Donbas. That is why for the EU the change of power in Ukraine was a matter of principle: if Poroshenko had retained power, the settlement in Donbas would have been delayed for another five years. It is no coincidence that peace in the East is the main promise of Zelensky, and apparently, his ‘sacred mission’ for Europe. Zelensky can and should become a symbol of national reconciliation and launch the peace process in the East. After that, they can proceed to other regions,” the expert says. According to Cheban, the decision of Russian President Vladimir Putin on a simplified procedure for issuing Russian passports to residents of Luhansk and Donetsk regions clearly showed significance of the deal on Donbas. “Putin makes the first move to get the maximum profit from the future settlement. In particular, in the form of a powerful Russian diaspora in the East of Ukraine,” he stresses. At the same time, the analyst is sure that the future models of settlement in Donbas, Transdniestria and Kosovo “have more in common than it seems at first glance”. “Kosovo has long been independent and recognized in the EU and the US. Unrecognized Transdniestria is reluctant to return to Moldova, about the same as the Russian troops do not hurry to leave this territory. Official Chisinau is trying to change the situation and force Russia out of the Left Bank of the Dniester, but foreign partners are not particularly in a hurry to stir up another conflict in Europe itself. Ideas on how to get rid of Transdniestria have been already articulated even in Bucharest. Donbas in the coming years is unlikely to painlessly return in Ukraine in the same status since too many people died. The conflicting parties will have to look for some third way to consolidate the status quo and divide powers in order to avoid new conflicts,” Cheban notes. “In all three cases, the international mediators represented by Moscow, Brussels, Berlin and Paris will have to come up with a formula that will help to resolve the conflict and at the same time save face. Some details of this formula may very soon be offered in Ukraine,” the expert concludes.