Bringing Serbia and Kosovo to Peace. Mutual Recognition Coming Soon?

Sergei Isaenko Relations between Serbia and Kosovo have experienced different states: from mutual extermination to a very lean peace. Today, it seems that the situation in the Balkans is being pushed to the end to get rid of this painful problem on the European continent for a long time. If at the beginning of the year it seemed that Belgrade and Pristina will try to agree in comprehensive and compromise-based way, now it is clear that the external ‘handlers’ of the region intend to resolve the conflict right along in the shortest possible time. It became clear after the recent escalation in the region that a civilized ‘bargaining’ in Kosovo and Serbia will not work. The situation is not over yet: on June 10, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General Zahir Tanin said that the Kosovo authorities violated the immunity of Mikhail Krasnoshchekov, a Russian diplomat, member of the UN mission in Kosovo. Both UN staff members, one of whom was Krasnoshchekov, were officially sent to monitor the situation when they were detained by the police. According to the official, the immunities of UN staff from arrest and detention were violated. The Russian Foreign Ministry, in its turn, demanded an apology from the Kosovo administration for beating the Russian diplomat. The case of the Russian UN official vividly depicts the situation. Attempts by Russian and Serbian diplomacy to cast a shadow on the Kosovo authorities, appealing to international law, are unlikely to succeed. The processes surrounding the Kosovo conflict have become irreversible, and it is already clear that much is allowed to Kosovo Albanians under the close care of Washington. Provocations are no exception: the main thing is to ‘stimulate’ the Serbian elite to sign the comprehensive peace agreement sooner. Meanwhile Belgrade and Pristina maintain a distance. In the end, a suspended conflict is one thing, when both sides are securely watched over by the international players. In this environment, it is convenient for the elites of both parties to gain political points through conflict rhetoric and simulate negotiations. Another thing is a realistic solution, therefore, the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo only share banal declarations on the situation, which change fundamentally from strong to compromise ones, optimistic and peaceful. Such instability of the settlement process, especially at the finish line, hardly suits the geopolitical players, who just now have seen a window of opportunity to end the long-term Serbian-Kosovo confrontation. That is why a ‘shout’ was not long in coming. On 11 June, the smoldering state of the Serbian-Kosovo settlement was affected by the White House administration, which made a statement on the 20th anniversary of the completion of NATO’s military operation against Serbia. According to Washington, the only way to a better future is a dialogue between neighbors aimed at normalizing relations and paving a path to ensure that both Serbia and Kosovo take their rightful place in the Euro-Atlantic community, as this is the only way to achieve real independence. At the same time, the US authorities called on the parties, as a sign of respect for the victims, to recommit to a peaceful and prosperous future for all of their citizens, to put aside extremist rhetoric and historical revisionism, to redouble efforts to work toward a comprehensive agreement centered on mutual recognition and immediately remove barriers to progress. Since the active search for a formula for a final political settlement of the conflict began, Washington has for the first time openly and officially declared its position. The United States is confident that the main goal of the comprehensive agreement everyone has been talking about for six months is the final separation of the parties and the establishment of inter-state relations. Earlier, experts noted that the meeting of the leadership of the conflicting parties scheduled for July 1 on the initiative of France and Germany ‘hung in the air’. This happened after the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo made mutually exclusive declarations that deprive the summit of any chances. Therefore, such an explicit position of the United States with corresponding accents can be considered an ‘instruction’ to Belgrade and Pristina to set a course for the compromise – mutual recognition and elimination of artificial barriers. In fact, Washington has made it clear that today everyone is interested in an early settlement in principle, without regard to the parochial interests of Pristina and Belgrade. The reference to artificial barriers is a direct allusion to the 100% protective duty on Serbian goods. Apparently, the Kosovo leadership, which will have to moderate its ambitions for a while, will also be pushed towards a quick settlement. Serbia will have to accept the objective reality and actually meet the main requirement of Pristina – to recognize the independence of Kosovo and abandon claims to its historical territory. Ultimately, the settlement will not be an easy decision for either side, but the goal of ‘agreement’ is already set, and Belgrade and Pristina will have to reach it very soon.