Opinion: Sandu and Zelensky Will Hit Hard on Donbas and Transdniestria

RTA expert Vladimir Rotar: Kyiv and Chisinau spoke for the first time at the highest level after the change of power in both countries. Vladimir Rotar, RTA: Kyiv became the third destination in a series of foreign trips of the new Prime Minister of Moldova after Bucharest and Brussels. Maia Sandu as expected makes a familiarization tour to the key capitals for Chisinau, adjusting the established ties and centering them on the new government. The visit to Kyiv was perhaps one of the most intriguing. After the fall of the Plahotniuc’s regime, many observers expressed concerns about the future of Ukrainian-Moldovan relations, previously based on the partnership of the two ruling oligarchs. In addition, Chisinau has become more restrained in relations with Russia, which the neighboring country could easily regard as a betrayal in the current circumstances. The recent vote in PACE for the return of Russia’s right to vote, where two members of the Moldovan delegation, including its head, ACUM Co-Chairman Andrei Nastase, unexpectedly voted in favor, added fuel to the controversy. Judging by the first reports in the media and a briefing of Sandu and Zelensky, there were no frank sensations. The meeting was rather symbolic, where absolutely all the issues of interest to Kyiv and Chisinau at the moment were thrown on the negotiating table. Hence, a wide range of topics: from the order of crossing the state border and construction of hydroelectric power stations on the Dniester to the integration of the energy systems of Moldova and Ukraine with Europe. It is clear that all this is only a start for the future – the real work on the designated issues will not begin before there is a new government in Kyiv, more loyal to the President. At the same time, there is reason to believe that at least one issue on the bilateral agenda was discussed more thoroughly by Maia Sandu and Volodymyr Zelensky. We are talking about the common ‘headache’ of Moldova and Ukraine in the form of uncontrolled territories. As it was repeatedly noted on the RTA, one of the goals of the European Union in the process of changing the oligarchic regimes in Chisinau and Kyiv was just a change in the situation around Transdniestria and Donbas. Brussels has long intended to modernize approaches to the settlement of these frozen conflicts, making them more or less stable. Now seems to be the right time for that. Both Volodymyr Zelensky and Maia Sandu and her coalition allies are suitable candidates for the performers and conductors of these new approaches. They are united by the common glory of ‘deoligarchization’ in their countries and have the broad support of the international community. In addition, they also enjoy a huge domestic legitimacy, which allows them to feel more relaxed in comparison with their predecessors. There is another important point: the new authorities of Moldova and Ukraine today are entirely dependent on European funding and will be much more obedient and predictable partners than the wayward oligarchs Poroshenko and Plahotniuc. The fact that Zelensky and Sandu’s conversation focused on the resolution of territorial conflicts is partly proved by the first telephone conversation of the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, which took place on the day of the visit of the Moldovan Prime Minister, and was initiated by the Ukrainian side. Zelensky and Putin discussed the situation in Eastern Ukraine and the resumption of contacts in the Normandy format. In this context, the most benevolent tone of the visit of the Moldovan Prime Minister to the Ukrainian capital is not surprising at all. The parties tactfully smoothed things over, including the notorious vote in PACE, and Zelensky did not ‘set up’ Sandu with excessive anti-Russian rhetoric – there were only banal statements on mutual support for the territorial integrity of the two countries and the wishes of the withdrawal of Russian troops. Both Kyiv and Chisinau are well aware that now is not the time for resentment and mutual claims – they have a clear mandate from the international community to achieve a fundamentally new dynamic around the settlement of frozen conflicts, for which now there is favorable external environment. Therefore, in the near future we can expect the intensification of negotiations in international formats on Donbas and Transdniestria.