Expert: Moldova May Be Required to Step Up Integration into NATO

Vladimir ROTAR The Black Sea is troubled again - despite the epidemic, large-scale NATO naval exercises are held there as planned. In response, Russia initiated its own training in the Crimea and the peninsula area. The situation in the region is gradually running high, and this will directly affect Moldova’s Euro-Atlantic integration The Balkan and Black Sea regions in strategic terms are traditionally one of the most important in the European space, especially after 2014. Therefore, the United States and Russia keep strong focus on them. The latter is actively developing relations with Serbia (last year it even redeployed military equipment there), and the United States is expanding the circle of its allies within the North Atlantic Alliance: North Macedonia acceded to NATO this week, although this event passed almost unnoticed and without much fanfare due to the pandemic. However, even the coronavirus couldn't hamper NATO’s planned exercises in the Black Sea.  At first glance, it is strange enough to conduct them in the midst of an epidemic, when ship crews are in a particularly vulnerable position (it’s enough to remember how many US sailors were infected with COVID-19). But for Washington, after the Crimean case, the Black Sea region remains a zone of increased rates and interests, where the long game has long been started. Here we can highlight several fundamental points. First, in recent years, the Alliance has dramatically increased its presence in the Black Sea: it's almost constantly patrolling, and the intensity of aerial reconnaissance along Russian territory has also increased. Secondly, the practice of  large-scale naval exercises (the largest in the eastern theater) is well-managed. This year, more than a dozen ships from Romania, Italy, Turkey, Bulgaria and other countries take part in them. According to the Romanian Navy, “the ships perform the tasks of monitoring the marine, air and underwater conditions, practice the actions of ship groups, aviation, radio-electronic warfare and radiation, chemical, biological defense forces.” However, the real goals of these exercises are quite obvious: to practice in theory actions in a hypothetical conflict and test the possibilities of Moscow’s prompt response. No one is really trying to conceal them: for example, last October, a pair of B-52H Stratofortress strategic bombers simulated the bombing of Crimea, as was openly announced by the Pentagon. Of course, Moscow reacts negatively to NATO activity at its side, and actions of its army and navy make it clear that the "guests" in the Black Sea are not welcome. Therefore, simultaneously with the Atlantic bloc exercises, training flights of Russian aviation were intensified to practice "defeating the ships of a hypothetical enemy and repelling an air attack." In addition, the ships of the Alliance are closely monitored by Russian naval strike groups and missile systems in the Crimea. Mutual “playing with muscles” cannot but cause concern, since it creates a favorable field for provocations and all kinds of incidents, the consequences of which are difficult to predict. However, it is easy to guess that the explosive development of the situation can be used as an excuse to increase involvement of all NATO allies and partners in the confrontation between Russia and the United States in the region, including Moldova, which has long been implementing an individual action plan for cooperation with the Alliance. However, even if the most radical scenarios will be discarded, there is no doubt that the military buildup of the region and preparations for a hypothetical clash will continue. Along with this, any threats to NATO in the region will be calculated, and methods to neutralize them will be found. Moldova with its Russian troops on the left bank will not stand aside, as evidenced by the Alliance’s activity in the Republic of Moldova. Work is carried out in several directions. First of all, the National Army continues to turn actually into the US armed forces branch: the army is trained according to NATO standards, including regular exercises, military infrastructure with American funds is being modernized, NATO missions in Chisinau are opened. In addition, steps are being made to prepare the ground for constant military presence of the organization’s contingent in Moldova: it was not for nothing that last year RAND identified Giurgiulesti as one of the goals of the Russian landing. The coronavirus pandemic is likely to exacerbate the confrontation between the two powers, which, in addition, will distract the people's attention from the internal difficult economic situation. The problem is compounded by the escalating conflict in the energy market, which is important both for the United States and, especially, for Russia. Washington has long been fighting against Russia's gas infrastructure expansion (in particular, Nord Stream-2), and Russia has unleashed an oil war, where it is seeking to destruct US shale oil production in the struggle for a global redistribution of the black gold market. Therefore, one should not be surprised that even during the pandemic, the United States and its allies in the military bloc do not abandon plans in the Black Sea and only raise rates, creating the threat of an unintended direct clash in the region. In these conditions, Washington may demand more rapid integration from NATO associates, as is already seen in the example of Moldova. Its authorities, apparently, have to step up cooperation with the Alliance. In addition to establishing regular communication with the leadership of the bloc through the Romanian deputy secretary general of the organization, a signal moment can be considered the parliament’s rejection of the bill on the country's permanent neutrality. With a strong long-standing position in Moldova, the North Atlantic Alliance is persistently and methodically reforming the military sphere to ensure that the country is kept in its zone of influence. Whether Chisinau will be able to balance the military vector and actually implement the concept of neutrality and balanced foreign policy is not an idle question. It is important to understand that this will require almost titanic efforts from the current leadership of the country, and any attempt to at least partially get out of the custody of the United States and its faithful ally Romania, which is actively supervising  Moldova with far-reaching plans, will be met with hostility. The upcoming events amid the pandemic crisis will show insofar can Chisinau withstand the expected wave of Western military-political support and whether the concept of neutrality so beloved by the Moldovan president will suffocate in NATO's fraternal embrace.