Coronavirus Chronicle in Moldova: Crisis after Epidemic

Marina DRAGALIN Countries around the world loosen quarantine measures trying to normalize the situation. Moldova joined the main channel: high incidence rates are no longer a deterrent when facing the impending economic crisis Almost 3.6 million people worldwide became infected with new coronavirus infection and 250 thousand people died. In Moldova, COVID-19 infection was officially confirmed for more than 4200 citizens, although 40 thousand people continue to be under the supervision of doctors with suspected virus. Given the examples of Italy, Spain and the USA, Moldova overcame it quite easily. The number of deaths from coronavirus reached 132 people. So, according to Prime Minister Ion Chicu citizens should not panic for this reason, since the republic has one of the lowest mortality rates from COVID-19. “The mortality rate in the Republic of Moldova from coronavirus is 3%, the global figure is 7%. The Republic of Moldova shows one of the lowest rates. In Romania, it is 5.7%,” the prime minister emphasized. However, if you look closely at statistics, not everything is so rosy. Unfortunately, the issue of medical personnel safety remains acute throughout the epidemic. A quarter of those affected are health workers. Doctors, being a rarity in the country even in "peacetime", nowadays fall ill and die. Hospitals continue to be sources of infection. The coronavirus outbreak was recorded in the Clinical Hospital in Balti city, and the Ministry of Health decided not to quarantine it as it served patients throughout the north of Moldova, including those requiring urgent medical and surgical care. And this, according to the head of the Health Department, Feodora Rodiucova, is “the hospital administration’s mistake”: “When it all started, it was necessary to close the hospital. Today it’s too late to talk about it.” No fewer disturbing reports are received from employees of the Republican Clinical Hospital, in particular that doctors in specialized departments do not receive special clothing and safety glasses. “We do have a mask and a surgical gown, but no glasses and overalls. The mask and the dressing gown are put into bags after use and sent for re-sterilization,” one of the doctors anonymously said. Despite the growing incidence of COVID-19, the Moldovan authorities are gradually weakening quarantine. The first measures were taken a week ago. A few more steps on the path meant for returning to normal life were made yesterday: public transport partially resumed operation, government officials returned to their jobs and retail trade was restored. Moreover, according to Ion Chicu, the state of emergency will end after May 15. Obviously, the country is tired of being afraid of coronavirus. The fear of getting sick fades before harsh reality realization: the epidemic has not come alone - the economic crisis is ahead and the consequences of crop failure. Quarantine cost Moldova a lot. According to experts, the global economic crisis provoked by the pandemic will cause a fall in Moldova's GDP this year by 3%, exports and imports - by 3.8 and 7.6%. Drought and frost are also to contribute to. At the current stage, republic’s macroeconomic indicators are not critical but economic life has stopped. Revenues to the budget got sharply reduced. The government estimated the budget revenues loss this year at 7.5 billion lei. Given the expected increase in spending, the budget deficit will increase by 2 times - up to 16 billion lei. The Moldovan authorities traditionally intend to cover it by external loans. Adrian Lupusor, Executive Director of the independent analytical center Expert-Grup believes that the government has poorly assessed the potential for internal reserves, low domestic debt and good capitalization of banks that could more actively lend to the state and support the business. “If we now quickly and on vastly support citizens and business the crisis will not be so acute, this will help maintain demand and prevent the economy from sinking to the bottom,” Adrian Lupusor emphasizes. According to a survey conducted in mid-April ordered by business associations, most companies fell in demand, there were difficulties with raw materials and delivery, thus productivity decreased significantly. Companies of the HoReCa sector, travel agencies and sewing industries suffered the most. 84% of entrepreneurs believe that in the next 2-5 months they will face an acute shortage of working capital and therefore declare a reduction in staff costs. “I would divide the Moldovan business during the pandemic into two categories: those who were forced to close but could transfer some of the sales online and those who continue to work. At the same time, incomes decreased for both of them,” Mila Malairau, head of the American business association AmCham stated. Calculating how many people have lost their source of income due to quarantine and epidemic is difficult. Experts say it is about 50-150 thousand people. According to the Employment Agency, more than 7.7 thousand people applied for support and out of them half received the right to unemployment benefits. At the end of April, the number of unemployed amounted to more than 25 thousand. Do not forget that to the country returned (and continue to return) labor migrants. Of course, some of them, after the situation in Europe normalizes will return to their interrupted work but a significant percentage will remain in the country and there is no viable solution for their integration into the economy yet. Obviously, the trials series for Moldova and its authorities will not end with the ebb of coronavirus wave. It is already being replaced by economic recession, which closer to the fall is to be spurred by crop failure consequences. Moldova’s population cannot get used to economic crises but quarantine has pretty much depleted the already scarce stocks of citizens. In these conditions, business and community support programs announced by Moldova’s international partners seem like a good life buoy. One can only hope that the Moldavian establishment political ambitions will not push away the so necessary helping hand for the country and population.