Expert: Moldova Is to Face a New Political Crisis Round

Sergiu CEBAN By removing the early elections threat and internal instability PDM pave the way for radical rearrangements in the ruling coalition in Moldova The atmosphere of Moldovan domestic political life is becoming every day more and more “warmed up” and the only factor that seems to keep a stable state situation is apparently, the quarantine. Many experts try to predict the further events development as the state of emergency ends and the country gradually returns to its usual rhythm of life. Nevertheless, most indicators, including the upcoming presidential election indicate that a difficult period of socio-political arrhythmia can be expected for the republic, a period caused by both: pandemic consequences and the fierce struggle of the main political forces. In the past few months, Igor Dodon and the Socialists Party came in for harsh talks and attacks arranged by the pro-European opposition and part of the diplomatic corps, who tried to accuse them of all pressing problems and plight of state. The president is forced to bring his undeclared election campaign facing not the best pre-electoral position, while his parliamentary associates are mostly engaged in chaotic defensive actions. In addition, the internal Democratic Party state, being a serious challenge for the ruling coalition causes increasing concern. The many-hour meeting of the PDM faction on May 4, only overshadowed the existing discord among the Democrats. Therefore, there is no certainty that the situation within this political formation will allow it remaining in the current format until the presidential election. As the practice of recent days shows, centrifugal processes within leadership only strengthen the further systemic disintegration of the party and the gradual migration, including those from regional deputy groups to the Pro Moldova parliamentary movement. Active positioning of the odious mayor of Balti, Renato Usatii continues and he, as one may see, is planned to be involved as one of the aggressive protest’s leaders against the current president and his political associates. His complicate relations with Moscow and Russian law enforcement officers, apparently, prompted Usatii to cooperate with the Moldovan opposition against the common opponent. It is most likely that in the near future the Balti mayor supplying with compromising materials will continue and when the quarantine restrictions end one may expect the first trial demonstrations under his leadership. The so expected on May 7, Constitutional Court decisions may also become milestones for Moldovan politicians and for the country as a whole. Nevertheless, even despite the court’s decision, it’s obvious that the pre-election potential of Russian financial assistance at the moment is almost completely offset by opposition attacks and external forces behind them. The humanitarian aid of neighboring Romania, which, despite its incomparable volumes, receives the most positive socio-political effect being in a stark contrast with this. The recent expert discussions’ main topic is the likelihood of early parliamentary elections. According to experts, since the parliament can be dissolved no later than six months before the presidential election, the deadline for the current government to resign and launch the relevant constitutional mechanisms is May 8. If by this date no significant political changes take place in the country, then the main task of the president and socialists before the elections will be to ensure the functionality of the parliamentary coalition. At the same time, after May 8, the head of state will lose one of the main frightening arguments in the dialogue with the PDM - early elections. In turn, the Democratic deputies will receive more than six months of immunity from such risks and therefore it is during this period that more active and decisive action of the opposition forces and international actors involved can be expected to reconfigure the parliamentary coalition and remove the socialists from power - and subsequently the current head of state.