What Is Kiev and Chisinau to Expect from Russian-German Interaction

Sergiu CEBAN The Russian Presidential Administration deputy head Dmitry Kozak’ s operational blitz visit to Germany signals about the joint work of Moscow and Berlin continuation to resolve territorial conflicts in Eastern Europe On May 13, invited by the German side Dmitry Kozak, deputy head of the Russian presidential administration paid a working visit to Berlin. Some journalists have already christened this voyage “half-secret”, expecting the most unpredictable consequences from it. The main visit topic was the situation in eastern Ukraine discussion. In addition, according to some information, during this visit, a personal contact was also arranged with Angela Merkel’s assistant. Following the meeting, reporters were in a duty way informed on the constructive and business spirit path of communication. In addition, the consultants agreed on further joint actions to solve difficult problems in the Ukrainian direction. Not announcing the forthcoming trip or meeting arranging between authorized representatives in person despite sanction and quarantine restrictions, suggests that the need for such a bilateral contact arose for a number of urgent and pressing circumstances. The reason Berlin and Moscow decided to synchronize their watches on topical issues may become known in the very near future. It is no secret that for several years within the European Union there have been difficult internal discussions on the future relations with the Russian Federation format. European business has long been signaling to European officials about its expectations to ease the policy towards Russia, whose market is of particular interest to both investors and manufacturers from the EU. According to some European experts, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Brussels to maintain its “sanctioned unity” with respect to Moscow every year, and that is why the EU needs to rethink and reformulate its position as to its eastern neighbor. Thus, one can pay attention to the “Peace in Ukraine: the European War” report published at the end of April this year and prepared by the International Crisis Group (ICG), which caused great resonance in the socio-political discourse of the European Union, Russia and Ukraine. In their recommendations, the center’s experts suggest that the West initiate a strategic dialogue with the Russian side regarding security on the European continent revise the EU sanctions policy towards greater flexibility, which could stimulate the Kremlin to practical communication with a focus on concrete results. In addition, in their report experts emphasize that the Russian authorities perceive the situation in eastern Ukraine resolution and other unresolved conflicts in the post-Soviet space not as the basis for cooperation in the field of European security but as one of the confrontation elements with the West. Moreover, according to the Kremlin, the aim is to restrain, weaken and eventually force Moscow to unfavorable conditions for further coexistence. As it is known, recently Dmitry Kozak, who returned to the high Kremlin orbits, is considered being the curator of the post-Soviet countries bordering on the European Union - Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova. For Kozak the Ukrainian dossier is in many ways a new topic, and vice versa the Russian official has for a long time and deeply been familiar with the Moldovan direction which can hardly be considered apart from the Ukrainian agenda. Moreover, the current crisis processes in Moldova actualize the Moldovan issue for Moscow and Berlin. Despite the objective differences in approaches to conflict resolution these two capitals have enough experience and motivation to build a sustainable regional security model based on a balanced and spheres of influence distribution. In fact, the principles underlying the 2010 Mezeberg Initiative are well kept within the Russian-German agenda. In this sense, there is sufficient reason to believe that in Berlin interlocutors also exchanged views on the Transdniestrian settlement issue, since both conflicts are inextricably linked with the wide context of relations between the West and Russia. It should be noted that for Moscow, the current relations of Chisinau and Tiraspol and the whole situation in Moldova are unlikely to develop according to the predicted scenario, where the president being loyal to the big eastern partner remains under increasing pressure from the pro-Western opposition. In these conditions, his re-election for a second term is not an easy task. But it was with him that Moscow had high hopes for testing a balanced format of cooperation with the West on the example of this small country divided by a 30-year-old conflict. At the same time, also stalled the settlement in eastern Ukraine where breakthrough decisions were expected at the beginning of this year, in particular the formation of a negotiation mechanism, which for the first time involved direct communication between the center and the rebel regions. Due to the pandemic, these plans were postponed and it is not clear whether they will be implemented even after the end of quarantine restrictions. Which, obviously, also does not cause optimism among their creators. At the same time, in Berlin and Moscow, they are clearly aware that the unfavorable situation in the world and the dependence of many developing economies on Germany and Russia are at the same time a good chance to try drawing contours of possible solutions to urgent issues of strategic interaction, the implementation of which can help overcoming socio-economic crisis in Europe. It remains only to understand whether the Russian and German politicians’ resources are sufficient for achieving the tasks set, which, apparently, the parties have already begun to concretize.