Anton SHVETS
The Transdniestrian settlement is a “mine field” for the nowadays Moldova where only the most qualified sapper is capable of clearing it, and even he has little chances to reach the edge of this field
The almost thirty-year period of the development of sovereign Moldova is more than enough to understand the reasons for the internal instability of this post-Soviet state, shaken for years by resonant scandals and protracted domestic political crises. For many years, the country’s political elites and citizens have failed to form an integral homogeneous Moldovan political nation. In many respects, those who state that there was no hard working about, will have a point. Apparently, everyone was busy with more important and interesting things – some of them actively channelized resources and controlled schemes within the country, others raised their livelihoods beyond its borders with sweat of their faces.
Nevertheless, there is a number of objective reasons for the country being in a state of permanent “torn” Moldovan identity that is corroding its integrity for three decades. Offhand, you can highlight such factors as the significant influence of the neighboring “elder sister” Romania which is the non-healing rift of Transdniestrian separatism; then perceiving the country as an application effort means within geopolitical confrontation between Washington, Brussels and Moscow. As a result, it turns out that Moldova occupying a very modest geostrategic position, has long been in one of the regional “whirlpools”, therefore it is no wonder that the local elites and the population constantly have the head spinning.
Perhaps namely such a way of living years after gave rise to a special Moldovan form of passive-parasitic behavior, in which the causes of all the country's ills in a twinkling of the eye are explained by the geopolitical factor. The most talented, bright and sparkling such an educational program with the long-suffering population the elite is carrying out during electoral periods. At the same time, people also have a simple explanation that the country's salvation should come from abroad - the fraternal support of an older comrade (everyone can enter any capital here), IMF loans, macro-financial assistance, etc. etc. And the task of Moldovan politicians is to only traditionally expose their thieving predecessors, more successfully negotiate for money with development partners and distribute them correctly, preferably with the appearance of social support for the population. It remains the traditional wheel of life crumbling the country.
Time goes by. Political speculations that have fallen on edge, all kinds of coalition somersaults, campaign promises and pretentious, pro-political labels like Pro Moldova do not stitch together the long-torn fabric of Moldavian identity into one canvas. Moreover, the fault lines are expanding markedly and there is no understanding of what Moldova is and where is it going to.
In this regard, let us turn the attention to the above-mentioned problem of Transdniestrian separatism. One would say that so many years have passed so what prevents closing the question. If we are a single Moldavian people - let's unite as soon as possible. Together in a modern world shaken by wars, crises and pandemics, it is clearly easier to survive. We’ve lived separately - that's enough. According to our president, Transdniestria does not have an independent future - either with Moldova or with Ukraine. Well, who needs these pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine, who is already torn by its own conflicts? There is a unique chance for Chisinau: let's think about it and use it. Maybe the return of Transdniestria will become the very long-awaited Moldova’s identity assemblage point?
To be noted that the left-bank side will immediately recall that Moldova was the first to leave the Union Republic (MSSR) and recognizing in June 1990 the primacy of Moldovan laws over the Union ones. At the same time, the local legislator, who had sharply gained national identity, officially declared the act of creating the MSSR illegal and all the consequences of signing the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact were legally null and void. The reasons for these decisions, taken with an ambitious aim for the future are clear enough towards Southern Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina. However, in a hurry, together with political water the parliamentarians tossed the Transdniestrian “baby”, because unlike the above-mentioned territories the left bank of the Dniester in Bessarabia never existed.
Decades have passed, and somehow the return of the ancestral territories issue do not work very well between Bucharest and Chisinau. However, at the same time, country’s the authorities in their hasty attempts to patch the Transdniestrian “scar” made so many stupid and even fatal mistakes that today the left bank in all senses “set off” even further and the Moldovan population itself has long been not interested in this in principle.
What do we have today? The current configuration of the Moldavian state is unstable. Society is polarized. The winners of the ominous toxic oligarch actively share power and mate regularly in artsy coalition poses. Shor and Candu, who are close to Plahotniuc joyfully rub their hands, add fuel into the political bonfire and rightfully count on revenge. International actors ostentatiously promise and even give out a little financial assistance to the country (though not everyone has the privilege to help) and hatch their cunning plans. Actually, it is for a long time that ensuring effective manageability of the country is not successful.
Will it still be possible in this unstable period to make a breakthrough in the Transdniestrian settlement? Will the Moldovan Bolivar carry also the left-bank rider with its Russian mental majority, military warehouses and OGRF bases together with huge debts and depressive economies that exist only due to Russia’s goodwill?
Everything is to be determined by the Moldovan elites’ moment subtleties degree understanding. Today there is really an opportunity but the limit of errors has long been exhausted. A new failure in this particular issue may be the last one to bury the concept of a “united Moldova”.
Any serious decision of the current shaky government and President Igor Dodon himself in the Transdniestrian direction will be expectedly criticized by the opposition with accusations of unconstitutionality, “surrender” to Moscow, strengthening separatist tendencies, the notorious “Transdniestrianization” of the country, etc. Recently, the Moldovan internal political process has been purposefully involving the armed conflict on the Dniester’s veterans and that creates an additional level of complexity (separatists are their long-standing wound literally and figuratively). This requires authorities’ thoughtful actions to avoid aggravation of the protest reaction.
The country's leadership is trying to find a safe passage in the Transdniestrian "minefield" but without much success so far. This explains the frequent change of Chisinau’s political representatives in the “5 + 2” format. It seems that the coalition members are happy to transfer this post to each other hoping to avoid dangerous mistakes and get out of criticism’s sight.
The pandemic period did not add optimism and negatively affected the negotiation process that resulted in a series of scandals and mutual accusations between Chisinau and Tiraspol that has little to do with effective approaches to the final settlement. Previously, in such a traditional way, the parties to the conflict managed to drag out time, maintaining the status quo for decades. But now, as we understand it the country simply does not have this invaluable resource.
The glimpse of a conscious approach to the settlement can be considered yesterday’s telephone conversation between the president and the leader of Transdniestria as a result of which it was possible to simplify the regime of crossing the administrative line for the left-bank residents from the Dubossary district villages. Such concern for the Republic of Moldova citizens is unlikely to cause criticism of opponents and at the same time creates a space for further compromises search.
Will Moldova be able to take a verified course in the Transdniestrian issue in current circumstances, avoiding the fatal explosion of the Molotov-Ribbentrop cocktail of the Transdniestrian spill directly depends on its holistic identity gaining and on its clear understanding of who we are and where are we going to.