Moldova: Crisis Is Inevitable

Sergiu CHEBAN Opinion: the Republic of Moldova is going to witness several months of internal political instability, which could be settled through electoral reset of all the major administrative and political state institutions The events of the past week have decisively drawn a line under the so-called individual rule of Igor Dodon and the Socialist Party, who decided to take the country into their own hands last November. A year after the “silent revolution”, Moldova again plunged into another, apparently protracted, domestic political crisis. Two attempts by PSRM and PDM to convene parliament for the next meeting resulted in the lack of a quorum, which, in fact, recorded the collapse of the parliamentary majority. Further existence of a socialist-democratic coalition has lost its point. The two parties are now in fact connected only by the government. However, having lost parliamentary support, it has at its disposal only the procedure for accepting responsibility for amendments to current legislation, for example, to the state budget for 2020. The opposition, apparently, is not ready to work with the cabinet in this format and requires either its resignation or strict adherence to parliamentary procedures. However, neither the president, nor the prime minister obviously wants to become dependent on opposition deputies; moreover, they don’t see ACUM bloc’s involvement in social support of the population. In addition, Mr. Chicu’s persistence in his desire to take the government’s responsibility for adopting a number of frankly populist bills is alarming. According to experts and the opposition itself, this approach looks like a clear reluctance to seek a compromise on an important package of social initiatives. In addition, it is also a handy excuse to resign under the pretext of non-constructiveness of political opponents. The conflicting views among the ruling team, the president’s public calls to agree on a new coalition and government, and attempts to dump all the sins on the current cabinet are also adding to the conflict potential of current situation. In this context, a possible open conflict between Ion Chicu and Igor Dodon cannot be ruled out. There has long been a certain discrepancy between them over the pandemic and socio-economic crisis management. According to experts familiar with the internal mood in the government, the current prime minister is not going to lose self-esteem and, despite difficult professional challenges, plans to leave the game with dignity. Indeed, blaming the Chicu government for everything would not be entirely fair. Most of the criticism from the opposition is based on the Cabinet’s connection with its political leaders and loyalty to specific political parties. According to experts, an objective view of the situation does not allow demanding more from the current Moldovan government than they inherited. The blame for what is happening in the same healthcare system obviously rests with the political predecessors to a considerable degree. The political situation in the country may receive a new impetus as early as July 7th. The Constitutional Court of the Republic is preparing an opinion on the possibility for the presidential and parliamentary elections to be held simultaneously in the fall. By the way, the head of state has already called for an early renewal of the parliament. Constitutional law experts are inclined to believe that the court will give a negative conclusion, but there is still an option for an unexpected move by the higher court, which is becoming increasingly involved in domestic political processes. However, no matter what decision is taken by the high court, it is unlikely to stabilize the situation in the state. A powerful effect can be produced by the very resignation of the government, which will force major political stakeholders to reconsider their current positions. In this context, tactical flirting even between the most irreconcilable opponents is highly possible. The same Democratic Party will clearly face a choice either to participate in the formation of a new government with former Pro-Moldova colleagues, prolonging the political life of the party, or to commit suicide by agreeing to early parliamentary elections. The results of opinion polls published last week convincingly show that most of the current pro-Western forces have very weak chances to enter the next parliament. This motivates the pro-European opposition to temporarily unite efforts in order to join the election campaign with more promising electoral indicators. Obviously, the difficult domestic political situation will continue to rock Chisinau in the next few months, seemingly having no limit or end. There are different opinions among experts regarding certain plot lines and turning points. On the whole, however, it is safe to say that Moldovan politics has come to its logical conclusion, and to ensure deep cleaning of the state system it would be wise to conduct an electoral reset of all the main administrative and political institutions: the parliament, the president and the government.