According to the updated forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this year will see the economy of Moldova rise by 4.5%.
The IMF’s forecast is more pessimistic than that of the government, which expects an increase of about 6% this year, mold-street.com reports.
In 2022, the IMF expects economic growth at 4.0%, and by 2026 it will remain at 4.2%. Inflation in 2021 will be 3%, up from 3.5% in 2020, and inflation forecast will rise to 5% in 2022.
Moreover, the IMF notes that the trend of population decline will continue in Moldova: from about 2.63 million inhabitants in 2020 to just 2.36 million in 2026.
According to the IMF report, the highest economic growth in the region will be in Montenegro – about 9%, followed by Romania and Turkey at 6% each. In fact, Romania will be the second fastest growing in the European Union this year after Spain (+ 6.4%).
For Ukraine, the IMF forecasts growth by 4%, for Russia – by 3.8%, and for Belarus – by 0.4%.
The euro area economy is projected to grow by 4.4%, below the 5.2% growth expected in October, as expectations for a recovery in the region’s major economies have weakened. The IMF lowered its growth forecasts for Germany (-0.6 percentage points, from 4.2% to 3.6%), Italy (-1 percentage points, to 4.2%), Spain (-0.8 percentage points and France (-0.2 p.p.).
On the other hand, the global economy is expected to recover at a faster pace after strong performance in the second half of last year and will be supported by massive financial stimulus packages, especially in the US, as well as the expansion of vaccination campaigns.
Thus, the IMF estimates the growth of the US economy at 6.4%, China – 8.4%, India – 12.5%.
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