The Meeting of Putin and Biden: Is there a Chance for Any Intermediate "Reset"?

Sergiu CEBAN The upcoming meeting of the presidents of the United States and Russia will also help to understand the prospects for cooperation or, conversely, the intensification of confrontation on the perimeter of regional players like Moldova and Ukraine. On April 13, during a telephone conversation, US President Joe Biden invited his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to hold a personal meeting in the coming months and discuss the entire list of pressing issues within Russian-American relations. According to information actively leaking into the press, the summit of the heads of the two states might take place in mid-June in one of the European capitals. However, everything will of course, depend on how quickly the diplomats and other departments involved in will be able to prepare everything necessary for their leaders’ meeting. Key conditions for Putin and Biden meeting were apparently determined during yesterday's talks between US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Reykjavik, where both diplomats went to attend a meeting of the Arctic Council. The main task for Blinken and Lavrov, according to experts, was to agree on a common agenda that would help to as soon as possible start the stage of communication preparing at the highest level on the designated topics. Key elements in communication between Washington and Moscow are the continuing degradation of bilateral relations and the provision of strategic stability on a global scale. Therefore, it should be expected that the main emphasis in the framework of the talks will be placed on security issues in the broadest sense, where the Kremlin has perhaps, sufficient potential that would allow holding discussions with the White House practically on an equal footing. One way or another, a personal meeting between the two presidents is a good opportunity to try change the existing nature of the relationship and to give them more balance and predictability. At the same time, the depth of the contradictions is so great that one can hardly expect serious breakthroughs and reason in terms of Obama-Medvedev "reset". Today, there is practically no reason to believe that relations with Moscow will become a strategic task for the White House in the coming years. Most likely, we are talking about a forced tactical maneuver for US foreign policy, as well as about the existing need to determine the basic principles of interaction with Russia in the short term. Globally, the main target for the American administration is China and the threats it poses to US dominance. Therefore, the predictive nature of relations with the Kremlin is quite consistent with the line pursued by Washington towards Beijing. For Russia and Vladimir Putin, who is rapidly approaching a difficult phase in the transition of power, reaching an interim agreement that could lead to stabilization of relations with the United States and to establishing long-term pragmatic cooperation would be a significant success. Such an alignment would remove from the Kremlin the heavy burden of many years of confrontation with the collective West and would allow to launch pinpoint processes of internal transformation and political reset of the Russian system in a slightly more comfortable external environment. Despite the fact that the parties have not yet completed the stage of agreeing on the basic components of the future meeting, the demonstrative strengthening of their positions on the main topics is in full swing. Moscow is stepping up the issue of withdrawing from the open skies agreement and declares the United States to be an unfriendly state along with the Czech Republic, while Washington, in turn, complicates the position of the pro-Russian group of politicians in Ukraine. Thus, the stakes are vigorously increasing and are complicating the state of things within the main bilateral relations cases. Meanwhile, the White House is sending positive signals to the Kremlin through the press. In particular, it expressed its readiness to refrain from sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 operator and replace them with formal introduction of measures against the vessels involved in the facility construction. Along with, the Federal Office for Shipping and Hydrography of the Federal Republic of Germany allowed the gas pipeline construction to continue, a thing that could hardly have happened without additional coordination at the level of Washington and Berlin. It is quite expected that a lot of attention will be riveted to the upcoming meeting, including from states that are aimed at preserving the regime of confrontation with the Kremlin and, consequently, disrupting communication between the leaders of the United States and Russia. Quite symbolic in this regard was last week’s appearance of the report by the British Institute of International Relations "Chatham House" on the prospects for relations with Russia. The main message of the document is that the West will not be able to find a common language with Moscow, therefore timid attempts to reach warming with Russian partners do not bode well for either the United States or their main Euro-Atlantic allies. On the whole, expectations among expert community cannot be called overestimated. Experts in US-Russian relations are predominantly disposed towards the fact that Washington and Moscow will strive to as a minimum maintain the current status quo, and will also carefully try to interrupt the inertia of further deterioration in relations in order to reduce the degree of tension between the two countries, which gets projected on certain regional and global processes. It is obvious that unlike Ukraine, Moldova will not be singled out as a separate item on the agenda of Biden's communication with Putin, despite the fact that this week from the representatives of the American establishment and the Russian leadership certain comments were voiced, including quite specific assessments of prospects for our country. That is why it is critically important for Chisinau to understand exactly what is the angle the White House and the Kremlin plan to exchange views with regard to Moldova. Maia Sandu, who is likely to become one of Washington's pivotal politicians in the region for the coming years, has already voiced some introductory theses in Berlin yesterday. Thus, she said that Moldova, in her opinion, should contribute to the creation of a stable and conflict-free environment in the region, which will help Chisinau build normal relations with the European Union and Russia, as well as focus on the internal development of the country. The coming months will make it possible to understand was this just a balanced pre-election statement, or is the American administration seriously hinting to its Russian partners about possible compromises within our Moldovan perimeter.