Foreign Policy Perplexity for Moldova

Participation in the first Crimean Platform summit is a challenge for Moldova, which, whatever the outcome, will spoil its relations either with Ukraine or with Russia.

Vladimir ROTAR, RTA: Less than a month is left before start of one of the main events in the Ukrainian foreign policy calendar, i.e. the first summit of the Crimean Platform. The development of this, as they say in Kiev, “international consultative and communication mechanism” was initiated last year by the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky. The announced goal is to work out specific steps with the country's foreign partners to return the peninsula under the Ukrainian jurisdiction. The Ukrainian leadership is now paying special attention to the Crimean Platform, and this is not a surprise. Lack of social and economic success, corruption scandals and a deadlock in the Donbass settlement, which, moreover, is increasingly discussed without Ukraine, shapes a negative social and political background that rapidly drops the rating of the president and his party. Therefore, Zelenskiy now more than ever needs a positive project that has sufficient potential to “be sold” to the population, as well as can improve the tarnished image of the Ukrainian leader. In addition, it allows the official PR machine to make comparisons pleasant to the current head of state with his predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, who “did nothing” to de-occupy Crimea. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has been working hard all this year, planning to attract as many states as possible to participate in the Crimean Platform and to achieve their representatives, preferably at the highest level, at the summit on August 23. The list of agreed states is still classified, but, as we know, it already includes 28 countries and international organizations, including the US, EU, Turkey, Poland, etc. Thus, Kiev wants to seriously increase international pressure on Moscow regarding return of the peninsula, which, as known, actually dropped out of the real world agenda. As a matter of course, Ukraine also expects to see Moldova at the August event, and, most likely, Maia Sandu, as the main face of modern Moldovan politics. The proposal to join the Crimean Platform was announced back in December last year by the Foreign Minister of the neighboring country Dmitry Kuleba. Despite the lack of relevant information in official press releases, Sandu's participation was most likely spoken out at her meetings with Vladimir Zelensky in January and July of this year. In addition, during a recent telephone conversation, Zelenskiy again invited his Moldovan counterpart to the summit. For Chisinau, this is undoubtedly a very difficult issue. Restoring relations with neighbors, which had been badly damaged in recent years, was one of the main priorities in the foreign policy part of Maia Sandu's electoral program. And this process is already underway: recently, we have observed, for example, a dynamic Moldovan-Ukrainian cooperation in terms of European integration, the development of which has already been expressed in the Associated Trio. There are other important points of contact, such as the implementation of large infrastructure projects and the Transdniestrian settlement. At the same time, our colleagues have already noted that the parties often have fundamentally different positions regarding the priorities of interstate cooperation. And if Kiev primarily seeks to focus on regional security and joint counteraction to Russian regional influence, then Chisinau is interested in more mundane practical issues like the Dniester ecology. The Crimean Platform clearly demonstrates the difference in approaches and, in general, is a very inconvenient moment for Chisinau, which, however, cannot be ignored. Obviously, many resources have been invested in this project, its implementation will be promoted as a great victory for Zelensky, who was able to move the Crimean issue off the ground for the first time in seven years. Moreover, there is no doubt that, using it, Ukrainian politicians and media will subsequently identify countries that have accepted or refused to participate as friends or ill-wishers of Ukraine. At the same time, attending summit by Maia Sandu will inevitably have a negative impact on relations between Russia and Moldova. Vladimir Zelensky himself said that his guests risked ruining relations with Russia. Dmitry Kuleba said that Moscow has been putting pressure on potential participants in the Crimean Platform right from the start, logically considering the whole event as an encroachment on its territorial integrity. Moreover, Ukraine plans to adopt a political declaration at the end of the summit, which will fix the Russia’s status as an aggressor, approve the policy of non-recognition of the Crimea annexation and its de-occupation, and also describe in a negative way the consequences of the transition of the peninsula to Russia. The new Moldovan leadership, barely recovering from long internal political battles, would probably prefer to avoid addressing such difficult dilemmas almost at the very beginning of its rule. Now the republic does not need upheavals on the outer perimeter, such as a strong discord in relations with Moscow. Kremlin has already shown extremely wary reception of the convincing victory in the last elections of the pro-Western forces which took control over all key government bodies. Therefore, the first messages from the PAS leadership regarding the future of relations with Russia were voiced in a conciliatory and soothing manner. However, even then it was clear that it would be incredibly difficult to maintain a foreign policy balance, which we now see on the example of the Crimean Platform, where there is practically no opportunity to “please everyone”. Refusal of participation or a symbolic level of representation shall mean a blow to the dialogue with Kiev that has just started its restoration. Accepting an invitation, signing the Crimean Charter or any other document following the summit means getting directly involved in some activity to return the peninsula to Ukraine, and thereby getting a powerful poisonous element in relations with Russia, which will certainly try to “punish” all the participants to the event scheduled on August 23. It will be very interesting to watch how Chisinau can get out of this difficult situation. However, it seems that Chisinau will not be able to get out of the Crimean Platform given the clear support for the Ukrainian initiative from the EU and the US, as well as the expected presence of many national leaders from the Eastern Europe.