Transdniestria Announces a Transport Blockade. What Happened?

Today, as expected, Ukraine has blocked the movement of vehicles from the Transdniestrian region across its territory. However, there is reason to think that this is not the end of the story

Sergey CHEBAN, RTA: Starting today, Ukraine has banned the access of the Transdniestrian vehicles into its territory. As it was reported, in accordance with the decision of the Cabinet of Ministers and the note of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, from September 1, only those vehicles from the Transdniestrian region will be allowed to participate in the international traffic which have registration plates of an approved sample, the so-called neutral numbers. It is curious that a few hours earlier the Reintegration Bureau published its own press release reading that the issue of the Transdniestrian cars' access to the international road traffic was discussed at a separate meeting with representatives of diplomatic missions accredited in Moldova, where foreign representatives were informed in advance about the change in the situation from  September1. Notably, given that only about 5% of the left-bank car owners have obtained the neutral numbers and operators providing freight and passenger transportation do not have yet access to receiving them, the Moldovan authorities appealed to Kiev with a request to maintain the existing procedure for crossing the Moldovan-Ukrainian state border for the Transdniestrian transport until January 10, 2022. Such an unusual and controversial press release containing information about a kind of "awareness-raising" meeting with foreign diplomats, as well as an unexpected appeal to Ukraine with a request to once again move the deadline for the ban received completely different interpretations in the Moldovan expert community. Someone saw this as a manifestation of weakness and political indecision on the part of Chisinau, others noticed the first indicators that the new government had already established "contacts" with the left-bank administration and was ready for certain compromises with Tiraspol, as well as to take into account its interests in relations with Kiev. Judging by the last few weeks' lull, Tiraspol was expecting a more positive outcome and therefore perceived the launched transport restrictions predictably negatively, placing all the responsibility on Chisinau and Kiev. Yet, they seem to be still hopeful of turning the situation back and achieving a status quo extension. It should be said that the "transport issue" has a fairly long history, but it became more acute after 2014. Back then, the Ukrainian authorities announced their fundamental intention to significantly change their stance on the Transdniestrian settlement, including everything related to the left-bank region, primarily cars. The changed circumstances and the "time-out" granted by Kiev of its own free will forced both banks of the Dniester to concentrate all their energies on the search for a mutually acceptable solution, which was found in 2018. The poorly functioning mechanism of joint re-registration of cars in Tiraspol and Rybnitsa issuing neutral documents and license plates has actually become a kind of alternative for the left-bank residents, and a reason for Ukraine to return to implement its plans this year. Chisinau and Tiraspol, of course, interpret the 2018 agreements and the current state of affairs at joint registration offices differently. The only document that claims to be objective and close to the real situation in this matter is a document prepared by the OSCE Mission last fall, to which the left bank regularly appeals. Not surprisingly that in the current situation Chisinau had no choice but to declare its intention to intensify efforts in the very near future to improve the functioning of the VROs in Tiraspol and Rybnitsa, as well as to speed up the handling of technical issues to minimize negative implications for the Transdniestrian citizens and economic agents. According to political analysts, it is too early to say unequivocally that the road transport topic has already been brought to a close. Based on the comments of the local representatives, the highest-level officials in Chisinau, Kiev and Moscow were involved in the negotiations. Since the issue was not tackled on the negotiation process platforms, it is likely that this particular issue might have turned into a bargaining chip, primarily between Kiev and Moscow, where Chisinau acted as a mediator. It should also be noted that the demonstratively displayed firmness and adherence to principles on the part of Kiev in relation to the self-proclaimed Transdniestria, which is the center of Moscow's regional interests, fits well into the context of today's visit of Ukrainian President Volodymy Zelensky to Washington. Despite the disapproval expressed by the Transdniestrian administration, its overall reaction was rather moderate, without any threats to introduce retaliatory measures against Chisinau, as was the case in the winter period of 2020. This may indicate that the situation around the Transdniestrian road transport was in fact deliberately driven into crisis - first of all, due to Kiev's desire to significantly increase the rates. Therefore, one way or another, there is reason to state that politically the issue remains open and, most likely, will be further developed.