Doesn’t Moldova Show Solidarity with the West?

Sergiu CEBAN

Authorities are trying not to attract too much attention to Moldova in order not to drag the country into the vortex of the Ukrainian crisis

Some signs of de-escalation in eastern Ukraine were replaced by an unexpectedly sharp escalation at the end of last week. In a matter of hours, fighting intensified on the line of contact between the self-proclaimed entities and the Ukrainian armed forces, triggering the mass evacuation of the population in some areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions to the Russian territory. After yesterday’s telephone conversation, French President Emmanuel Macaron and Vladimir Putin agreed to step up diplomatic efforts with the ultimate goal to define a new peace and security architecture in Europe. After that, Macron called Volodymyr Zelensky: both leaders pointed to the need to convene a trilateral contact group and immediately introduce a regime of silence in the Donbass. So far, all the results of these international phone calls look, to put it mildly, not encouraging. Russia seems to be going to keep its forces near the borders with Ukraine until it gets at least something worthwhile. Until then, it will create tension to force Western countries to negotiate and make appropriate concessions. It is worth noting that the aggravation in the Donbass occurred literally immediately after the Ukrainian leadership called the Minsk agreements “poorly drafted” and not subject to implementation, although a few days earlier the German Chancellor conveyed Kyiv’s readiness to submit draft documents on the implementation of the Minsk accords. If we analyze statements by high-ranking officials in the leading capitals, then Washington, Berlin, Paris and Moscow seem to have already arrived at a fundamental understanding that the issue of Ukraine’s accession to NATO should be postponed for at least 10 years. And then smoothly engage in talks on strategic stability and security on the European continent. Apparently, the risk of an armed conflict and a potential invasion of the territory of Ukraine provokes not only an acute pre-war state, but also creates “favourable” environment to finally sit down and negotiate, because of the failure to do that in peaceful conditions. It is important to understand that the West cannot simply accept Moscow’s demands, close the NATO doors and concede to commitments not to expand the bloc. Moreover, the critical state in security terms provides the Western capitals with additional arguments to put pressure on Kyiv to force it to implement Minsk agreements which in turn open the way to Ukraine’s decentralization and (re)formalization of its non-block status. Such a hidden international consensus puts Kyiv in an extremely difficult position. Uniting against the Kremlin is one thing, being alone against everyone is quite another. Realizing that attempts are made to drive Ukraine into a hopeless situation and even use it in negotiations with Moscow, Volodymyr Zelensky began to openly air grievances against the West about the hypertrophied threat of Russia’s attack. According to him, a hybrid information war is going on against Kyiv, and if someone is willing to help Ukraine, then they should reinforce the army and economy and invest in strengthening Ukrainian statehood. Even despite Washington’s discontent, in order to “be seen”, Zelensky went to the Munich Security Conference, where he attacked mainly Western partners with claims and demands. According to the Ukrainian president, Ukraine deserves an honest answer on the prospects of its accession to the EU and NATO. Besides, it is critical for Kiev that no negotiations are conducted behind its back. He called on the West to create a recovery fund and develop a lend-lease program. In his opinion, sanctions against Moscow should be applied now, because they will not be needed when Ukraine “loses its territories and economy.” The media hysteria escalation still really has a detrimental effect on neighboring Ukraine’s economic situation. In recent days, a number of states have joined the process of curtailing or transferring their diplomatic missions, urging their citizens to leave the territory of Ukraine. Our authorities tried to hold off, but just yesterday the Foreign Ministry also appealed to our fellow citizens in connection with the development of the situation around Ukraine. It was recommended to refrain from traveling to the neighboring country, and those staying there were suggested to assess the need for further stay on Ukrainian territory. A few days earlier, Nicu Popescu noted that an attack on Ukraine from the Transdniestrian region appears unlikely. According to the minister, military preparations have not yet been observed on the territory not controlled by Chisinau. At the same time, realizing the remaining risks, he expressed hope that the tension between Ukraine and Russia will not turn into a hot phase of confrontation, and our country will be able to maintain its neutrality status. Traditionally, he also mentioned the withdrawal of Russian troops – one of the priorities of Moldovan diplomacy. Unlike the Foreign Minister, Maia Sandu tried not to show up on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. The President spoke at the migration and international security section, telling about its consequences for our country and the region as a whole. According to her, corruption and poor governance have driven people out of Moldova, weakening the country and creating security problems. Many experts accused the president of continuing to balance, ignoring the international situation, as well as Moscow’s attempts to destabilize the entire regional space. While the entire democratic world is mobilizing and trying to adhere to a unified position, our top leadership prefers avoiding harsh language against the Kremlin, as well as speaking about how current situation will affect Moldova. Even though some of our representatives, at the peak of the general line, do not refrain from calling for joining the “Free World” against Russia. In a sense, such a desire not to attract too much attention, so as not to drag our country into the Ukrainian mess, is justified. On the other hand, the refusal to show solidarity with the collective West will certainly will boomerang back.