Expert: Our Economic Model Consists in Exporting Moldovans and Importing Goods

Moldova’s economy is in a state of slowdown, with forecasts showing modest growth of 2 percent by the end of this year. Economist Victor Ciobanu expressed this opinion, highlighting that a slight economic growth would be registered due to agricultural production, as the harvest period has already begun, ipn.md reports. In the expert’s opinion, Moldova’s economic model is loss-making, as the country “exports” its citizens and imports products. Ciobanu says that Moldova’s economy is in the midst of a recession, i.e. there is a production decrease, fewer investments, and a general economic activity decline. “Officially, we are in a recession. We have had negative economic growth for several consecutive quarters. So far we have had justifying excuses - the pandemic, last year we only talked about the war. Still, in 2023 we see that the EU countries are recovering and enjoying economic growth.” “Our situation is paradoxical. According to statistics, in the first quarter, we had a decline of 2.4 percent. Some experts from the Ministry of Economy said that the second quarter’s dynamic was also negative. All the forecasts, including the IMF’s, say that we will reach +2 by the end of the year,” expert Victor Ciorbanu said on the program “Puncte de Reflecție” on the TV channel Vocea Basarabiei. In the expert’s opinion, Moldova’s economy will register a slight recovery this autumn, as farmers started harvesting and their products are to be sold. Besides, the money sent home by diaspora citizens keeps the country’s economy afloat. “Traditionally, the harvest period comes and we overcome the economic deadlock, bring the economy up to a very modest growth. But even here, the outlook is not very optimistic. Farmers report that the harvest is good, but prices are low. The bad thing is that we consume much more than we produce.” The latest data show that over the last five months, we had a trade deficit of almost two billion dollars. We produce little, exports fell 8 percent. Our economic model comes down to exporting Moldovans and importing goods. We have a diaspora of about a million people who send money, which allows the Moldovan economy to stay afloat. “Remittances of 2 billion dollars come to the country. If we divide this sum by the population of 2 million people, we get 1000 dollars a year, less than 100 dollars a month per person, and this is only money for expenses,” Victor Ciobanu added. International Monetary Fund experts forecast that Moldova’s economy will register a modest growth of 2 percent in 2023, while in 2024 the economic growth will be 4.3 percent. According to IMF forecasts, the average annual inflation in Moldova will be 13.8% in 2023 and 5% in 2024.