Moldova is Losing Allies in the West?

Anton SVET

The results and trends of election campaigns in key Western countries are certainly of concern to our leadership, as they can significantly affect the current support and process of European integration for Moldova in general

The ruling regime could reach closure after the June elections to the European Parliament, which mainly resulted in further standard party representation and the main EU course, even despite the distinctive strengthening of right-wing projects already forming a faction under the leadership of Hungary, the Czech Republic and Austria. Political appointments to key positions within the European Union, including the retention of Ursula von der Leyen as President of the European Commission, allow us to count on the most loyal attitude of Brussels to the actual leadership and Maia Sandu personally, including support for her re-election and a relatively predictable course of negotiations on EU membership. The new High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas, views Moldova in conjunction with Kyiv, “When we discussed candidate status for Ukraine, it was also granted to Moldova, because they go together.” She has also already visited Moldova and, being a representative of the former Soviet republic, will definitely support the two countries’ aspirations for European integration. At the same time, the recent TV debates in the United States turned out to be a disaster for the 46th US President Joe Biden: as a result, two-thirds of television viewers admitted his defeat. Sponsors of the election campaign, functionaries and voters of the Democratic Party, as well as the largest US media reacted blazing-fast with hysterical talks about replacing the Democratic Party candidate as the American leader. However, Joe Biden, his family, closest advisers and friends have expressed their intention to continue the fight. We should remember that our presidential elections, after returning to direct popular vote, in terms of dates are synchronized with the US election campaign. At the same time, Donald Trump’s leadership in 2016 largely helped Igor Dodon consolidate the anti-Western protest electorate and beat his rival in the second round. The revenge of the US political class in 2020 contributed to the success of Maia Sandu, who does not hide her liberal pro-American and pro-European views. The high probability of Trump returning to the White House could provoke cataclysms in all territories developed by Washington, due to guaranteed internal instability in the United States. Of course, lacking serious alternative candidate today allows Maia Sandu to feel comfortable, but Washington’s subsequent policies may disappoint many people in Chisinau. Top democrats, of course, hedged their bets in Moldova, six months before the elections, having a completely new management for its embassy. Kelly Adams-Smith and Daniela DiPierro are arriving in the country instead of Kent Logsdon and Laura Hruby. The United States will build a new diplomatic mission on the site of the republican stadium and intends to further controlling all processes in Moldova, convincing that this course will not change even in case of internal political upheavals. Meanwhile, the first round of early parliamentary elections took place in France on Sunday. The right-wing opposition, including the National Rally and the Republicans, took more than 33% of the votes (President Macron’s Ensemble took only 20% of the votes), immediately winning 76 mandates. Further forecasts of experts vary: some believe that following the results of the second round, the National Rally could take a majority in parliament and begin shaping a government led by Jordan Bardella, others believe that the right will ultimately remain opposed. Anyway, the vote in the fifth republic, among other things, confirmed the catastrophic failure of the expansionist and militaristic rhetoric of Emmanuel Macron, one of the closest friends of Moldova and Maia Sandu among Western leaders. Much of holding Bulboaca Summit of the European Political Community last year is owed to him. Contacting Vladimir Putin in 2022, the French president enjoyed a high level of public support. Threats to send troops to Ukraine and expand military support for Kyiv resulted in a rating collapse. Meanwhile, military community in Moldova and Romania still count on Paris’s support in a possible conflict with Moscow. Recently, the defense ministries of Moldova and France signed an agreement on military-technical cooperation with a secret protocol attached. Now the implementation of the instrument is in question. If the French right-wing opposition could form a government, then, even despite bureaucratic and international inertia, Marine Le Pen’s team will try to avoid escalation in relations with Russia and an increase in budget spending to NATO. Moreover, the Kremlin, as a bonus, can promise Paris to reduce activities in France’s former African colonies. But even with the final defeat of the right, the French authorities will have to adjust their policies in order to satisfy the needs of voters and prevent their further flow to ideological opponents. So, the Moldovan authorities should not rely too much on French military advisers, instructors and mercenaries in the future. Presidential elections will take place in Romania in September. There are no sensations expected in Chisinau, nor a revision of the general line in Moldovan-Romanian relations. Meanwhile, Bucharest has never invested in a single candidate in Moldova and has always worked with a wide range of political forces. In particular, today the Romanian authorities maintain contacts with the party project of Vlad Filat, with the mayor of Chisinau, Ion Ceban, and even with the European Social Democratic Party of Ion Sula, which many associate with Vlad Plahotniuc. One way or another, international trends actively influence the current regime, dependent on external financing and management. When the legitimacy of the ruling political structure in Chisinau is largely based on the support of partners in the West, any internal destabilization there can lead to prompt consequences in Moldova. Moreover, the rise of right-wing forces in EU countries, including key states, continues, due to the population’s disappointment with the actions of supranational institutions and the demand for a more sovereign domestic and foreign policy based on their own, rather than globalist interests. So far, such parties generally fail to achieve real power even if they win elections. But the trend is obvious, and it also threatens our republic in terms of slower entry into the EU and even the growth of community disintegrations.