“Beware of the Right-Wing Forces”. Do Unionists Disrupt Sandu’s Electoral Plans?

Sergiu CEBAN

The apparent discord in relations with the Unionist forces, which suddenly proclaimed the intention to nominate their own candidate for the presidential election and started to criticize the pro-EU referendum, may play a cruel joke on Maia Sandu in the second round, before which she expects to receive the support of the entire right wing

Brussels having opened the negotiations with our country has cast a big shadow on so to say the backup plan of joining the European Union through comprehensive integration with Romania. Of course, we cannot say that this option has been removed from the agenda altogether. It would be rather unwise to take such a step, given that there is still no certainty as to how international events will develop and how exactly they will affect the regional balance and, consequently, Moldova’s geopolitical fate. Nevertheless, unirea is almost off the table in the governmental and influential circles. Meanwhile, the prospects of Moldovan-Romanian relations were recently discussed in Moscow. An international scientific-practical conference with a fancy title was held there: “As part of Moldavia or Romania: will Moldova still be on the map in 2025?”. As usual, the Russian capital is very much concerned about the fate of Moldovan statehood and launches relevant political projects in our country to transmit narratives about the need to “save Moldova”. In response, Chisinau, together with its key partners, is sending the Kremlin another unambiguous military-political signal that “the enemy will be repelled”. From 5 to 23 August, we are holding the multinational exercise “Fiery Shield-2024”, which involves Moldovan, Romanian and American military. The objective is traditionally defined as “developing operational capabilities and enhancing interoperability”. Apart from the military, Moldova and Romania are also aligning other sectors, such as energy, as colleagues have repeatedly written about. Despite this, the pro-Romanian public has been suspiciously quiet over the past six months, as if it was deliberately muted by someone. And then the party Alliance for the Union of Romanians in Moldova (AUR) unexpectedly holds a press conference calling for the unification of Unionist forces to choose a single candidate for the presidential election. The chairman of the AUR Moldovan branch said that the political organization allegedly deliberately did not nominate a person from the party, but instead provided a “unifying platform” to jointly nominate the best candidate to represent the Unionist political vector in Moldova. One might have assumed that the Unionists were thus beginning to prepare for next year’s parliamentary elections. But the chairman of AUR in Moldova voiced the accusation in a frank manner that the Romanians of Bessarabia “have been hit right in the heart by this pro-European referendum. We are forced to abandon our love for Romania and vote for a lesser evil.” We will not go into what exactly was meant, but it is obvious that it was a “warm greeting” to the current government. It’s worth recalling that only in May, the AUR party, obviously with pressure from outside, signed the notorious For Europe pact and thus supported the referendum named after Maia Sandu. Now, just a few months later, the AUR Unionists have somehow stopped believing in such an option of Moldova’s European integration and have returned to their start point that the only way to enter the European family is to unite with Romania. Therefore, instead of joining the EU, they propose to put the issue of unirea to a national vote. Our Unionists apparently have no particular reason to favour the current political regime, which, by and large, exploits relations with Romania for its own internal political purposes, and uses Bucharest as a lobbyist for Moldova’s interests in Brussels. Besides, it can be assumed that Maia Sandu’s advisers promised something to the local supporters of the unionists, and this explains why they were not seen until now. Therefore, no one expected a surge of activity from the Unionists in the presidential elections, much less the nomination of their own candidate. To keep the “Unionist genie in the bottle” is a very challenging and at the same time important goal. After all, the representatives of this wing are able to break off a significant piece of Sandu’s rating, given that voters with Unionist views account for at least a third of the total number of her supporters. Both Igor Dodon’s withdrawal from the elections and the unexpected call of AUR to unite around a single Unionist candidate certainly breaks the strategy of Sandu’s campaign headquarters, finally demolishing all hopes for her election in the first round. In addition, the increasing skepticism among Unionists about the autumn referendum also indirectly hits the incumbent president’s position. The apparent discord in relations with the Unionist forces may play a cruel joke on Maia Sandu in the second round, before which she expects to receive the support of the entire right wing. Now it cannot be ruled out that if the referendum fails, the right-wing forces may call for a boycott of Sandu because she has not listened to their opinion. For example, she did not adjust the plebiscite in such a way that it would indirectly indicate people’s willingness to unite with Romania as an alternative to direct EU integration. Acting ahead of the curve in an attempt to play on the right, the presidency hastily launched another candidate, Octavian Ticu, from the regime-loyal political platform Vmeste (Together). He seems to be positioned as purely pro-European, but is known to the general public as a staunch Unionist. Having accepted the fact that the second round is inevitable and in order to neutralize the pre-election “Unionist threat” as much as possible, political consultants of Maia Sandu deploy the Ticu project with the following tactical tasks – to try to mobilize the maximum number of pro-Romanian voters in order to take as many votes as possible in this niche at the end of the first round. And just before the second round, Ticu will urge his supporters to vote for Sandu. To ensure that no one doubts the ruling party’s commitment to the ideals of inevitable integration with Romania, the party’s duty Unionist Vasile Soimaru was put on the stage. In his version, all the deputies from the Party of Action and Solidarity are staunch unionists and support the liquidation of Moldova’s statehood by joining Romania. In addition, Soimaru claims that PAS has allegedly done more for unirea during its three years in power than all other unionists who have ever sat in parliament. The overall discussion about the unification of Moldova and Romania, as before, has a complex and contradictory nature, in most cases being a banal occasion for political speculations. While in neighboring Romania the majority of people have a positive attitude to the idea of Moldova becoming part of the union, in our country only a little more than a third of citizens approve of the unionist project, while the rest of the population react rather peculiarly to such a prospect. It seems that throughout the year, someone in the President’s Office has been trying to remove the issue of unirea from the internal political and, consequently, from the electoral agenda. At the same time, supporters of Moldova’s Romanian future were consciously marginalized in favor of Maia Sandu as the main favorite of the presidential race. But, apparently, the situation is changing dramatically, and the Unionists are still bracing for their weighty word. Thus, in the near future, the topic of unirea will appear in the electoral field and in the debates between the candidates, and Sandu, one way or another, will have to speak out on this issue, from which she was so carefully shielded by her advisers.