Ionita on the Declining Exports: More than Half a Billion Dollars Lost in 18 Months

The expert noted that Moldova’s exports have been steadily declining over the past year and a half, starting from a peak of 4.34 billion dollars in 2022. By 2023, the value of exports decreased to 4.05 billion US dollars, and in July 2024 reached 3.77 billion US dollars, according to bani.md. According to an analysis by economist Veaceslav Ionita, the cumulative drop of $570 million is caused by four key factors. Namely, the loss of the hub’s role in trade with Ukraine. Exports to Ukraine fell from US$720 million in 2022 to just US$390 million in 2024 after Ukraine developed new logistics routes bypassing Moldova. Exports to the CIS countries reached a record low in 2024, accounting for only 2.5% of total exports, compared with 7.5% in 2023 and 70% in 1997. Populist and inconsistent trade policy – “restrictions imposed on sunflower imports reduced vegetable oil production capacity, and exports from this sector decreased by 60% in 2024,” Ionita said. According to the economist, the fourth reason for the decline in Moldovan exports is the setback in agricultural production: after a record harvest in 2021, Moldova faced a significant drop in agricultural production in 2023 and 2024, which will negatively affect agricultural exports. These factors continue to reduce Moldova’s trade competitive ability, and forecasts point to a further decline in exports in the coming months, starting in 2024.