Expert: Moldova Needs a Back-up Integration Project

Victor ENI

Nowadays trends require small countries to be more flexible and diversify their foreign policy in order not to be marginalized in global and regional processes

Yesterday, the high-level week of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly kicked off in New York. Some 130 heads of state and over 100 foreign ministers will spend five days discussing conflict prevention and resolution, combating the effects of climate change and other global issues of the day. In his opening speech, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres presented the Our Common Agenda programme, during which he outlined his views on the prospects for multilateral global cooperation. The Summit of the Future, planned back in 2022, was held for this purpose and resulted in the Pact for the Future, a common document of three agreements adopted by a majority of votes. The logic of the UN actions and goals are clear – to maintain international peace and security by all available means, ensuring the stable development of mankind. However, despite all good intentions, every year more and more calls are heard to reform the organization and the international system as a whole, which does not meet the realities of the day. While everyone speculates about a new UN configuration, including the Security Council, the world itself tends to become increasingly fragmented and bloc-based rather than united around universal goals. The further this trend continues, the more the world becomes divided into several centers of influence, the less connected and integrated it will become. The change in the structure of the world order will inevitably entail further erosion of interstate unions and international organizations, which are mainly dominated by the Global West. By and large, it is Western structures that now set, or at least try to set the tone for trade, economic and socio-political processes in the world, forming the list of world priorities. But, as frustrating as it may be for some, the “global order” that our current politicians strive so hard for is already a rapidly receding era. In fact, Moldova has always been at the crossroads of geopolitical platforms, which is why even today it looks rather fragmented. Not only at the level of the elites, but even in society we have not unambiguously decided on the foreign policy vision of our future. Judging by one of the most recent polls, there is a seemingly completely paradoxical picture in the preferences of the population. Thus, over 50% of respondents support joining the European Union, while just over 40% are ready to vote for rapprochement with the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. There is an explanation for this, and I would suggest that a significant number of citizens are in favor of cooperation with both. But let’s not speculate on where Moldova’s residents are more eager to go - we will get a more or less clear answer in just a few weeks, when the European referendum will be held. However, I couldn’t help but refer to the current state of affairs in the European Union, to which the ruling regime is so keen to bring Moldova. To avoid accusations of propaganda, I propose to refer to the findings of a recent report prepared by the former head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi. Without going into details, we can highlight the key idea: Europe needs to “wake up”, because in its current state it is losing to almost all global competitors in the long term. In fact, if we take a broader view of everything and do not listen only to the propagandists of the periphery, there are much more projects for the country’s development than it seems at first glance. Perhaps, there are no similar successful models like the European one in our environment, but it would be shortsighted to ignore the emerging blocs like BRICS. Such alliances are becoming an increasingly obvious point of attraction, even for states that have a long-standing cooperation with the Global West. If we consider the Black Sea region close to Moldova, Turkey stands out first of all, which, being a member of NATO and a candidate for EU membership, has applied to join BRICS. Although Ankara has not formally withdrawn from other key organizations, this transitory state is also an evidence of the weakening Western institutions that gradually yield to new formations. It is hard to ignore Georgia, which is actively safeguarding its foreign policy strategy, pushing Western influence out of its regional perimeter. Admittedly, Tbilisi has little choice, given its geographical location and the fact that Russia, China and Turkey, rather than the West, have more and more often had the final say in the Caucasus and Transcaucasia in recent years. As for now, any attempts to propose an alternative foreign policy course or even to mention the multi-vector principle of defending national interests will inevitably encounter fierce opposition from the current government. It is enough to look at the sharp reaction to the participation of some Moldovan athletes in the BRICS Summer Games in Kazan, when the athletes were threatened with sanctions from the relevant ministry and the patronizing federations. Nevertheless, some off-system political forces sometimes dare to voice considerations about cooperation with other interstate associations. So far they remain just thoughts and statements, without being enshrined in statutory documents. But if the public demand to establish contacts with the newly emerging block systems grows, we can expect our politicians to take a more decisive approach to this topic. Even if the referendum will be a success and the Constitution will be subsequently amended, Moldova will hardly be able to resist the natural international processes in any case. The trends of the new time require more flexibility from small countries, as well as prudence, ability to foresee and make the right choice. Although it is hard to believe that PAS and Maia Sandu will suddenly decide to look around to realize that the world is much more complex and multifaceted, and that focusing stubbornly only on EU integration can only harm the country. Any experienced politician or specialist will say with full conviction that in the current conditions any state should diversify its foreign policy in order not to be on the margins of global or regional processes. Albeit only at the level of closed diplomatic consultations, but Moldova should have a back-up foreign policy track, providing for a viable development project which can be launched at any moment.