Government Gears to Two Winter Scenarios, Including the Cessation of Gazprom Supplies

The government approved the Action Plan for preparation for the 2024-2025 heating season on Wednesday. The document notes that despite the fact that there is a current contract for supplies with Gazprom that go to the Transnistrian region, “there is a risk of unilateral cancellation of the contract by Gazprom”. There is also uncertainty about the continuation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine from 1 January 2025, infotag.md reported. In this regard, the plan assumes two basic scenarios for the winter: Gazprom continues to supply 5.7 million cubic meters per day to the left bank of the Dniester, including for electricity generation; Gazprom stops supplying natural gas starting from 1 January 2025. It is noted that “even in case of termination of natural gas supplies by Gazprom under the existing contract, no shortage of natural gas is expected for consumers on the right bank, given that all volumes of 5.7 million cubic meters per day have been supplied to the left bank since December 2022”. However, there are risks for consumers on the left bank. “If necessary, Energocom through Moldovagaz could meet the gas needs of protected/vulnerable categories of consumers in the Transnistrian region, subject to adequate prepayment of natural gas purchase and transportation costs by Tiraspoltransgaz. If necessary, MoldGRES could switch to alternative fuel for a short period of time, and the protected/vulnerable consumers from the left bank could be supplied with natural gas imported to the Republic of Moldova by Energocom through Moldovagaz and Tiraspoltransgaz, paying its full price. At the same time, Energocom through Moldovagaz could supply MoldGRES with natural gas as a source of electricity generation for the right bank, paying MoldGRES only the cost of its production,” the plan says. However, it is also assumed that in case of cessation of Russian gas supplies, “almost all electricity will have to be purchased from sources other than MoldGRES, which may pose certain risks to the stability of the Moldovan energy system (on the right bank), and there are also risks related to the capacity of import routes, given the situation in November 2022, after the Russian shelling”. “We are ready for any possible scenario,” Energy Minister Victor Parlicov emphasized.