Second Round Strategy: “anti-Moscow” VS “anti-Sandu”

Sergiu CEBAN

The electoral strategies of Maia Sandu and Alexandr Stoianoglo are likely to be modified before the second round of the presidential race

As we said a week ago, after 100% of the protocols were processed, Moldova woke up to a completely different political reality. It is still in a transit state, but it will not be the same, as the citizens have expressed their attitude to the referendum and, at the same time, to the ruling regime. The election headquarters of the candidates who made it to the second round do not have much time for preparations. And given that nothing is predetermined for anyone yet, both teams will have to work rather intensively. Let’s try to understand what components will make up the electoral models of Maia Sandu and Alexandr Stoianoglo. Let’s take yesterday’s briefings as a starting point, concentrating on the general sense of their electoral strategies. Maia Sandu expectedly stated that the majority of the people had chosen the European path, calling this result a victory in the first battle. Apparently, in order to justify the controversial result in the referendum, she once again mentioned the attempts of some external forces to buy 300 thousand votes. According to the president, the only way to defend democracy and prevent a catastrophe is a general mobilization and voting to repel “a massive attack on Moldova’s European path”. Most likely, that’s why Sandu’s main election slogan was rebranded - ‘Vote! Moldova votes!’. In addition, she invited Alexandr Stoianoglo to hold open debates, and appealed to supporters of Octavian Ticu, Ion Chicu, Tudor Ulianovschi and Renato Usatii for support in the second round. Last Sunday’s relatively strong result can be seen as a good starting point for re-election. However, for some reason neither Sandu herself nor her entourage are showing any serious enthusiasm and are somewhat depressed. The main reason for this is the emergency situation around the electoral booster, i.e. the referendum, on which the main bet was placed. The failure nationwide makes the plebiscite, if not politically toxic, then certainly highly controversial - it is unlikely to be relied upon much anymore. Some of the election tricks used before 20 October are unlikely to work in the second round. Therefore, for example, foreign visits, warm wishes from Brussels and other European capitals can be safely abandoned. If Maia Sandu’s headquarters is serious about winning, it will have to radically reconsider its overall strategy without the referendum factor and taking into account the risk of an extensive consolidation of opposition forces. The advisors and campaigners of the incumbent president will certainly not skimp on the number of spine-chillers that should induce pro-European voters to run to the polling stations. Most likely, the ruling regimeэs spokespersons will start actively presenting Stoianoglo as a disguised candidate of Moscow, whose victory will lead to a strengthening of the Kremlin’s influence, which, according to the logic of the current government, will inevitably imped an aggravation with Ukraine and the West. At the same time, the Moldovan electorate will be threatened with some “Georgian scenario”, which, together with the possible defeat of Maia Sandu, will lead to a freezing of relations with the European Union, a reduction in external financing, and almost cancellation of the visa-free regime with the EU. Another intimidating tool could be the narrative of an intensified Transnistrian settlement under Moscow’s auspices, which given the current fragile regional balance could easily spin the situation out of control. The situation is somewhat different in the camp opposite to Sandu’s. Speaking to the press, Alexandr Stoianoglo accused the head of state of discrediting and attempting to usurp the idea of the European vector of development, which “does not mean censorship, police terror and poverty, as well as the organization of propaganda referendums”. The former Prosecutor General called for finding a common basis for the consolidation of all political forces and society. Responding to Maia Sandu’s invitation to hold public debates, Stoianoglo proposed to organize them on a neutral platform with two moderators from each candidate. By and large, his electoral strategy should not change much. The main task will be to attract as many voters as possible for the candidates left out of the second round, as well as to mobilize the “anti-Sandu” sentiments and votes. Undoubtedly, Alexandr Stoianoglo has chances to unite various groups of the population around him, but it would be a big mistake to continue his campaign solely on the attacks on the current political regime. Therefore, from the very beginning of the preparations for the second round, we see how a unifying agenda is being sought in order to gather votes from all electoral niches. Much will depend on the statements made by the candidates who dropped out of the electoral race, as well as by opinion leaders. Unlike Alexandr Stoianoglo, who apparently does not rush voters to choose in his favor, Maia Sandu’s advisers have pushed her to ask for support in the second round as soon as possible. It should be recalled that earlier the president called other candidates “truthless” and refused to participate with them in electoral debates. So, this appeal of Sandu to her yesterday’s opponents, in many ways humiliating for her, proves the situation with the search for free votes critical. The situation is insecure for the recipients of the request. Given the lack of full confidence in her re-election and the upcoming parliamentary elections, Sandu is hardly ready to offer them anything concrete in exchange for votes. In turn, those who decide to lend her a hand before the second round may completely deprive themselves of chances in the next election campaign. According to the results of the first 24 hours, former Prime Minister Ion Chicu and Renato Usatii were among those who rejected Maia Sandu’s request. While the first one did it as markedly as possible, Usatii, who has a significant electoral potential, decided to accuse Sandu and Stoianoglo’s entourage of a dirty campaign against him, thus hinting that he is not going to favor anyone. Thus, the former mayor of Balti is likely to propose to his electorate to boycott the voting on 3 November and, having mobilized his electorate in the first round, he will be one of the first to start preparing for the battle for the parliament. Debates are one of the decisive factors that could, to some extent, redefine the results of the vote, which should help detail the perception of both Sandu and Stoianoglo. Meanwhile, there is reason to believe that the incumbent president’s team is bluffing and is in fact, as before, not ready to allow the head of state to “unarranged airing”. They were very carefully safeguarding Maia Sandu from the public and awkward questions. Therefore, let us believe that the debates will eventually be disrupted in such a way as to blame Stoianoglo. Apart from the plan for the next two weeks, both electoral headquarters are probably preparing for the post-election period, as it is not certain that the extension of Sandu’s term or the transfer of power to Stoianoglo will go smoothly. We can recall not only Vlad Plahotniuc’s prolonged 2019 dismissal, but also the president’s unequivocal statement that she is ready to take some fundamental decisions “in response to the attempts of criminal groups and external forces behind them to achieve political revenge in Moldova”.