Presidential Election Results Expose Moldova’s Huge Split

Segiu CEBAN

The legitimacy of the president who has lost domestic elections will be questionable, and the upcoming battle for parliament is likely to further divide Moldovan society

The presidential elections are finally over: after all the protocols were counted, Maia Sandu won with more than 55%. But if someone thought that it is possible to relax and return to the usual pace of life, it is a big mistake. As they say, “show must go on”, and literally today the election campaign for the parliamentary elections has unofficially started. The main conclusions of the completed electoral cycle: Maia Sandu lost in Moldova, like her referendum a fortnight ago, and was able to win only at the expense of the diaspora. Thus, the ruling regime received a double slap from the citizens who live directly in the republic and who have enjoyed the delights of governing the country for the last 4 years. Nevertheless, PAS has to some extent overcome the initial shock of the plebiscite results and enters the parliamentary race with so much needed psychological sense of victory. In general, it was one of the most intense election campaigns: we have not seen so much dirt and “low” technologies for a long time, as well as absolutely unacceptable episodes that demonstrated the sad underside of our society. Alas, but such a tough battle for the symbolic post of president only opened Pandora’s box and stirred up the socio-political moods in the country. Therefore, in the next 2025, Moldova is going to witness a constant and irreconcilable internal political struggle, perhaps even more aggressive than this year. Yet, there were chances that the elections would be held in a more moderate climate. However, after the authorities took unprecedented measures (forceful pressure on the opposition, banning of political organizations, closure of TV channels and media resources, including our website), it became clear that the political and electoral process in Moldova has lost the basic rules of play and there will be no pure competition within Moldova. From that moment on, the state plunged into electoral lawlessness and anarchy. Alexandr Stoianoglo indirectly admitted his defeat last night, calling on his supporters to calm down. Obviously, attempting to contest the elections through the street would hardly have added political points to him – most likely, it would have only weakened his rating on a national scale. The former prosecutor is definitely going to continue his political career, and is beginning preparations for the parliamentary elections in order to convert the electoral successes he has gained into parliamentary mandates. Did Stoianoglo have the potential to win? Probably, yes. The reasons for the lack of votes are yet to be analyzed by his staff. Maybe there was a need for more aggressive tactics towards Maia Sandu, a more substantial and convincing alternative programme, more confident attempts to reach center-right segments, and, after all, much more thorough control over voting in foreign polling stations, especially in the European Union. At her night briefing, Maia Sandu used unifying signals, speaking not of her victory, but of the “victory of Moldova”. Which, by the way, chose Alexandr Stoianoglo mostly. The paradox from her speechwriters. It is also obvious that she failed to repeat the 2020 triumph. From now on, Sandu is not the president of the whole country, but the leader of a group of citizens scattered both inside Moldova and abroad. And this inevitably calls into question her legitimacy as head of state. No matter how hard the ruling regime tries to pretend a good actor in a bad performance, the population living in the country has still negatively assessed the policies of Maia Sandu and the PAS party by voting. In fact, the real attitude of the people to what is happening became clear at last year’s local elections. Back then, the PAS loyalists explained that by emphasizing their minor importance. But the outcome of the two rounds of national voting, as well as the referendum, proved that the incumbent government is rapidly losing the trust and support of the citizens. As already mentioned, the completed presidential race is gradually turning into the parliamentary one. PAS, of course, has a starting electoral capital, which they will borrow from Maia Sandu. But there is no reason to talk about a convincing victory, as in 2021. The parliamentary elections do not have a second round, and the votes of the same diaspora will be dispersed among many political projects. By the way, the opposition has also developed quite well, tested new electoral technologies and will carefully prepare for this final battle with the hateworthy regime. Although, as per tradition, the presidential election should have been a contest of programmes and ideas, it turned to be more than ever absolutely geopolitical. The results show that the country is divided, including on the foreign policy criteria: one half supports a pro-Western leader in the person of Maia Sandu, while the other half favors a moderate politician close to Moscow. In addition, given Sandu’s and PAS ties to the Democratic Party, the prospects for a second mandate will depend heavily on who becomes the new U.S. president. No matter how confidently the pro-government expert guild declares that Moldova has made a “historic step” by legitimizing the European course, in the coming year the West will perceive our country as a state in a geopolitical grey zone. This will last at least until the results of the parliamentary elections and any specifics around the finalization of the war in Ukraine. The presidential elections have severely undermined the position of the regime that remains in power. To somehow stabilize the situation, the PAS will have to make certain “personnel sacrifices” and take more drastic measures against certain political opponents, as there is an increased demand for such actions among the supporters of the government. In addition, resources and support from Western partners are needed. But then the question will arise as to what external legitimacy the current elites have, and to what extent the key capitals are ready to help and place their main bets on the current ruling party, which, in fact, has discredited the European idea. And perhaps the key conclusion is the serious and dangerous split of our society, which, no matter what anyone says, is experiencing the most severe crisis in all three decades of independence. The neutralization of the vote of the left bank residents and the statements about the candidate of Gagauz origin showed that after 30 years, a significant part of the citizens and officials still have an unpleasing attitude towards Transnistria and Gagauzia, the most sensitive regions for the territorial integrity of the country. Current Moldovan elites, like their predecessors, are still not ready to incorporate these entities into the common political space and make them part of a unified state structure. Maia Sandu has already rushed to declare that she will be “president of all citizens”, but unfortunately there is no sense in this figure of speech. She has failed to offer any unifying ideas in the previous four years, and the upcoming, even more crucial election campaign, which will force Sandu to back the ruling party, will only further deepen Moldova’s social and electoral divide.