How Will the Sandu Regime Repay Western Support?

Anton ŠVEC

Western partners have invested heavily in the regime of Maia Sandu in recent years, financially, politically and diplomatically. Soon the time to pay the bills will come

Maia Sandu passed the referendum and the two rounds of presidential elections with pain and misery, but maintained and even strengthened her and her team’s position. Now the head of state can rule and stick to her own ideological line without regard to popular appeal, since the second mandate is the last according to the constitution. At the same time, the PAS parliamentary majority, following the results of the plebiscite, received additional powers to pass organic laws, which may turn the legislature into the “mad printer” in the next six months. Many experts comment on the election results, emphasizing the questionable legitimacy of Maia Sandu, while a number of parties plan to challenge the results in foreign polling stations. International observers, including those from the OSCE and the Council of Europe, as well as Moldovan non-governmental organizations, recorded a number of irregularities. But the facts remain - the CEC has recognized the election as valid, Sandu has surpassed her opponent by 10% of the vote, controls the capital and will not cede power. Meanwhile, her victory was ensured by the diaspora in Western European countries and North America. Romania, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada not only assisted in opening a huge number of polling stations on their territories and facilitated campaigning, including voting days and “election silence”, but also did not react in any way to the opposition’s allegations of numerous violations abroad. Some EU countries even deployed the Police to prevent the filming of video footage at polling stations on 3 November, which was aimed at capturing the low turnout. Moreover, European bureaucrats and politicians from Western countries helped Maia Sandu during the election campaign, holding regular meetings with her and declaring their financial and principled support for her course. When the team of the incumbent president “stumbled over the referendum”, the functionaries of the European Union with the USA and some heads of state who later joined them were the first to make complementary assessments of the allegedly historical choice of the Moldovan people. Following the results of the second round, the new and old president has already been congratulated by the president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and even the outgoing head of the White House Joe Biden. At the same time, the devastating assessments of international observation missions and the OSCE were ignored. The West has successfully protected its Moldovan asset and in the future will formalize and present a set of quite specific requests, which the regime will have to fulfil in order to confirm its loyalty. Perhaps, the need to ensure a successful performance of PAS in the parliamentary elections in 2025 will grant our country a reprieve, but the “day of reckoning” will definitely come. And the key point here is not only the debt pit in which Moldova is bogged down, having received over 2 billion euros in loans over the past three years. This money will have to be repaid anyway, both in the form of regular interest payments and by adjusting the monetary and economic policy in accordance with the recommendations of such structures as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. In fact, this will lead to raising the lending rate, cutting social spending and budget discipline. Generally, such manipulations in post-Soviet countries lead either to defaults or to the deterioration of the population’s situation. However, the set of demands of the Western masters will not be limited to financial obligations. There will be questions of imposing sanctions against Russia and other countries competing with the global hegemony of the USA, which will finally eliminate the trade and industrial potential of Moldova. They will continue to impose on Chisinau expensive purchases of electricity and gas from alternative suppliers to the current stock exchange, demanding stricter environmental standards, which will put a burden on production. The notorious issue of the sale of agricultural land will come to a head. This issue almost ruined the electoral campaign for the 20 October referendum, but in the medium-term Brussels will certainly raise it. And then the regime should not rely so much on the generosity of the European bureaucracy, which has lent a hand at the most opportune moment in terms of transitional periods and postponements. On the contrary, some EU countries are already elaborating an initiative to impose obligations on Moldova in the migration sphere, including the organization of camps and temporary accommodation centers for migrants from Asian and African countries who have not been infiltrated in the member states. It will not be possible to refuse, as Brussels will have financial and political leverage, and EU legislation should be incorporated into Moldovan legislation without exceptions and reservations. Moldova’s transit capabilities and logistical resources could be used by the West to supply Ukraine militarily. The authorities will be ready to assume the relevant risks, justifying the decision with international investments in infrastructure, although, in fact, they will simply have no choice. In fact, a bridgehead for military-strategic counteraction to Russia will be formed on Moldovan territory, which will require a multiple increase in the number of military exercises, expansion of the presence of EU and NATO structures, “adjustment” of normative documents and increased involvement in Western intelligence and peacekeeping operations around the world. These points are hardly a problem for the regime of Maia Sandu, many of whose representatives are ardent Western supporters. However, the price may become unbearable for the Moldovan population. Especially if Brussels and/or Washington need to drag us into an armed confrontation with Russia by unfreezing the conflict in the Transnistrian region.