Moldova Facing a New Cycle of Struggle

Sergiu CEBAN

Next year’s parliamentary elections could determine the country’s course for the next decade

While Maia Sandu is waiting for her inauguration, tension is simmering in the streets of Chisinau, despite all the pre-holiday festivities. Of course, it is not the same as in Georgia, where the population rejected the comprador part of the elite and opted in favor of nationally oriented politicians. If our recent elections had ended with a radically different result, it is possible that Sandu, like Salome Zourabichvili, would have refused to recognize their results and continued to sit stubbornly in her office. So far, the ruling regime has managed to resist the next wave of criticism and crisis tremors that are hitting its foundations harder and harder. If the problems in the energy sector cannot be resolved without serious consequences, the potential for pressure on the authorities will only grow. And next time, it is far from certain that the President’s Office will not resort to the hard decision to sacrifice the current prime minister. These two events, in fact, finalize the 2024 political season. We do not expect any dramatic turns in Moldovan politics before the end of the year, although we leave 10% for unexpected twists of fate. It is too early to summaries the results, but let us try to understand where the main political forces end this annual cycle, taking into account the upcoming battle for the parliament in the 2025. After all, it can predetermine Moldova’s course for the next decade. I assume that parliamentary elections will be held closer to autumn. The probability that some events will trigger a “snap” scenario is still low. One of the few motives that could push PAS to accelerate is the inability to pull ratings, which will begin to steadily fall as competing political projects are involved and spread across the country. Therefore, while PAS is still able to secure 30-35%, the logic may prevail within the party that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Besides, if we believe the published opinion polls, in case of voting in the near future, the PAS party would be among the main favorites with a predicted result of almost 44% of votes (or 49 mandates). In comparison, PSRM has 20% (23 mandates), Victory Bloc 14% (15), Our Party 7% (8), and MAN just over 5% (6). The “personal” criterion is still one of the leading ones for our voters when choosing a party to which they are ready to entrust their vote. Therefore, it is worth paying attention to other opinion polls, where Alexandr Stoianoglo received the highest popularity score among Moldovan politicians. He is followed by Maia Sandu, Ion Ceban, Igor Dodon and Irina Vlah. This alternative picture may indicate that it is still early to talk about even an approximate electoral line-up. In the presidential race, Maia Sandu and PAS faced essentially one task - to beat the key counter-candidate, who, moreover, failed to become a representative of the entire opposition. The parliamentary elections are a much more complex logarithmic equation, where even victory does not guarantee not only sole rule, but staying in power in principle. As it is known, in any election campaign the final result strongly depends on the factor of start and inclusion in the electoral process. In this sense, for Sandu, the idea of a European integration referendum on the eve of the New Year holidays was an almost ideal electoral debut. Subsequently, it was also reinforced by Brussels’ decision to open official negotiations with Moldova on EU accession. In the case of PAS, the growing potential of the energy crisis every week makes it much more challenging to find a positive starting point. As a result, unforeseen changes in the electoral strategy and plan have already had to be made. There is another crucial point: the opinion polls revealed the demand of more than half of the voters to unite opposition forces to confront PAS. The presidential elections have already shown the possibility of such a scenario. Alas, our politicians’ egoism is much higher in their priorities than the interests of society and the state. Therefore, whether it is the left or the right opposition, unity of efforts is possible either under strong external pressure or with the selfish realization that it will frant more votes and mandates. The main competition on the left flank will be between the Socialists, the Communists (the BCS FATE is unclear), Pobeda and other projects of Ilan Sor, as well as Renato Usatii’s Our Party. This conglomerate has practically no chances to create common electoral structures. The final balance of forces will certainly be affected by the regime’s administrative decisions, thanks to which some parties will be disbanded and their voters will be absorbed by their competitors. The situation on the right flank is less tense. The main rival or partner of the ruling party may be the MAN of the capital’s mayor Ion Cheban. This is one of the most rapidly developing parties, aiming at nationwide status. The opening of regional branches is in full swing, which indirectly indicates a significant inflow of resources into the party coffers. Cуban is already in favor of the early resignation of the government, up to and including snap elections, but he is pursuing for tactical purposes. In fact, his political creation is not yet ready for a serious election campaign. The political regime in Moldova may have survived the results of 2024, but it is not as strong on its feet as it is at the helm. The results of the presidential elections and the referendum proved how vulnerable and weak it is after each electoral cycle. There is little doubt that PAS has no chance of repeating the triumph of four years ago. And the future Moldovan government, if the post-election situation does not plunge the country into an internal political crisis, will definitely be a coalition one. However, the opposition should not be deluded by the fact that PAS is losing ground. Voters are equally disappointed with those who are now in power and those who are trying to achieve it, including for the second time. Neither with the former nor with the latter do our people, alas, have any hopes and expectations.