Ion Ceban Expects a “Golden Share” in the Future Parliament

Anton ŠVEC

Irina Vlah’s proposal to sign a pact against a coalition with PAS provoked mixed reactions from addressees in the opposition camp, each with different goals for the elections and beyond

Yesterday, the leader of the young party Heart of Moldova, Irina Vlah, proposed that PSRM, MAN and Our Party sign a pact obliging them to refuse to form a coalition with PAS following the parliamentary elections. She said that it was necessary not only to remove the current majoritarian force from power, but also to investigate the offences it had committed against citizens. The second part of Vlah’s initiative does not raise any questions. In the case of opposition consolidation, the legal experience of Alexandr Stoianoglo, former Prosecutor General and Sandu’s rival for the presidency, would be very useful. Especially in conditions when, contrary to his electoral success (victory inside the country can be considered as such), he refused to develop it further by creating his own party or joining any of the existing ones. For now, Stoianoglo has decided to stay out of the fray - such a peculiar strategy will definitely add unpredictability to the upcoming parliamentary elections. As for Irina Vlah’s main appeal, there are certain problems. Obviously, it has a pronounced electoral character, as Vla’'s personal result in the recent national vote does not guarantee that the electoral threshold will be crossed in autumn. The party urgently needs loud ideas and tangible PR in order to build up recognition and attract popular support. Therefore, so far, the ex-bashkan’s idea looks bizarre - it is ready to undertake a commitment not to form a coalition with PAS in the new convocation of parliament, where the Heart of Moldova is not sure to get through. This clearly does not add seriousness to the announced proposal, which looks like an element of electoral positioning and an attempt to put itself “on the internal political map”. On the other hand, it is unclear why Irina Vlah did not extend her appeal to a number of notable opposition forces with comparable potential to Heart of Moldova. At the very least, such a call should have been addressed to the Communist Party with the specific expectation that it would be supported. This could be ideological differences with Vladimir Voronin or the certainty that PCRM will not reach the new parliament. The same can be said about the Civic Congress, the projects of Vlad Filat and Ion Chicu, which could be in solidarity with the appeal, but are unlikely to get mandates in autumn. Probably, any parties and blocs linked to Ilan Sor will not be allowed by the authorities to participate in the campaign. In any case, the list of addressees of Irina Vlah’s appeal shows that the task of consolidating the entire opposition has not been set, and its current interests are limited to PR strategy. The reaction of the recipients was predictable. The first to respond was Igor Dodon, who immediately stated that it was PSRM’s idea to unite the efforts of opponents of the “PAS criminal power”. But in general, the socialist confirmed that “all parties that will pass to the legislature must form a parliamentary majority against PAS”. He also supported the view that PAS must “answer for its lawlessness”. However, the steadfastness of Dodon’s convictions has often failed the test of time and circumstance, something to keep in mind. Our Party leader Renato Usatii did not respond to Vlah’s call to the point, but called it an “ugly act” and a PR stunt, hinting that such things should have been discussed in advance and in private. One should not have expected otherwise: any abrupt moves by this politician could be met with a legal response from the regime, which gained special powers in the area of party legislation as a result of the referendum. At the same time, Our Party was already barred from the elections at the peak of its popularity. Apparently, Usatiiэs ingenious plan is to use his own largely populist rating to get into parliament and thus legalize himself in Moldovan politics. If the party will have a minimum baggage of political obligations, it will only benefit the unpredictable politician, who is ready to make various deals. The same logic, but with much greater ambitions and resources, is followed by Ion Ceban. The Chisinau mayor, who ignored the presidential campaign, recently travelled to Bucharest once again. There, he secured the support of the Social Democratic Party, definitively establishing the identity of his political formation. To enter the parliamentary campaign, one may assume, he will have quite solid resources, both internal and external. If Ceban manages to avoid failures and mistakes in the next six months in the confrontation with the ruling party at the level of Chisinau, he can expect significant success in future elections. The party infrastructure in the regions is developing, his personal anti-rating is relatively low, and his platform is centrist and patriotic, without excessive inflections and scandals. All this allows MAN to hope for maximum results. Thus, Ion Ceban sees himself as the owner of the “golden share” at the end of the parliamentary campaign, because the coalition of PAS with other parties (for example, PSRM) seems to be absolutely inorganic, even if it was once tried and tested. Or, as the regime would put it, “inauthentic”. Even PAS’s solution to the energy crisis with minimal losses, which the European Union is now actively ready to invest in, does not guarantee it a majority in parliament. The results of the referendum and presidential elections confirmed the critical decline in public confidence in the current government. In autumn, the situation will be much more complicated, given the specifics of one-round voting and the variety of options. Especially if the lack of funding and Washington’s overall diplomatic neglect of Moldova lasts longer than 90 days. Therefore, PAS reacted to Irina Vlah’s maneuver in a purely formal way: “Citizens want European integration and this will be the main task of the future parliament. Any other choice will lead to war, poverty and fear”. Apparently, as long as Ion Ceban has not made a commitment not to consolidate with PAS, the ruling regime can perceive the internal political situation relatively calmly and still try to win the elections in order to keep the majority or, at least, the opportunity to dictate its terms. In turn, Ion Ceban expects to obtain a number of mandates that would be a “golden share”, guaranteeing a majority both in a deal with PAS and with the totality of opposition forces. He seriously intends to enter the government (and in case of an unlikely, but theoretically possible deal with the opposition, even to head it), to acquire control over part of the financial flows, influence on the legislative process and state policy. This plan can only be hindered by absolutely bad election results for both PAS and MAN, or by the willingness of political rivals like Our Party to agree to a coalition with PAS faster than Ion Ceban and with a smaller rider. By trying to prevent this in advance with an electoral pact, Irina Vlah may unwittingly do a favor to the Chisinau mayor’s party, which will have a chance to act according to circumstances and instructions from Bucharest.