Is PAS Seeking an External Patron?

Last week was marked by two international events, on which, one way or another, the geopolitical fate of Moldova depends. As the European Commission officials admit, the “coalition of the willing” consisting of more than 30 countries who consider their role in a potential peacekeeping mission in Ukraine hasn’t delivered any progress. Meanwhile, Kyiv’s allies met in Brussels in the Ramstein format, chaired for the first time by the UK rather than the United States – a clear example of how other influential players can come to the fore. Given a potential Russian-Ukrainian truce or settlement, London is striving to prove itself as one of the leaders in the future peace process. This stems not so much from Albion’s clear intent to fill the vacuum of the Western presence in Eastern Europe amid Washington’s changing priorities, but rather from its ambition to expand its foothold in the Black Sea, traditionally viewed as an area of national interests. Recall that in 2020, in his annual speech before the Verkhovna Rada, Volodymyr Zelensky revealed plans that Ukraine was initiating the construction of two naval bases in Ochakiv and Berdiansk to protect the Black Sea region. In the same year, on October 7-8, during the visit of the Ukrainian leader to London, a mutual memorandum on strengthening military-technical cooperation was signed. Ultimately, the plans were never materialized, and it is possible that they played a role in prompting Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. There is no clarity yet on how exactly the Western coalition led by Britain is going to ensure deployment in the Black Sea and other regions of Ukraine. There are a variety of ideas and wishes, from a ground presence as peacekeepers, including critical infrastructure facilities such as the ports of greater Odesa, to only maritime and air patrols. The main stumbling block remains the position of the White House, without which any intervention by European military contingents seems like a quite risky gamble. Meanwhile, last week, Washington and Moscow, which apparently still have their own agreed agenda, held another round of technical consultations in Istanbul at the level of Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Sonata Coulter and the future Russian ambassador to the United States, Alexander Darchiev. Given the profile of the American diplomat, not only US-Russian relations were discussed, but also the post-Soviet region. This was probably the next stage after the ten-hour expert talks in the UAE. The near future will reveal whether the positions in relation to the Eastern European states have been synchronized. As to our domestic affairs, we may recall the recent meeting of the chief negotiators from Chisinau and Tiraspol which took place in the presence of only American diplomat Kelly Keiderling and the Russian representative, in addition to the OSCE Special Representative. We prefer to refrain from any far-reaching conclusions, since anything is possible right now. But this format of meetings hasn’t been seen in the Transnistrian settlement for a long time. If you still have doubts that Moldova, with its conditional access to the Black Sea through the port on the Danube, is beyond the current complex geopolitical game and regional confrontation of the great powers, we would like to mention one peculiar visit to Chisinau, which seems to have been unduly overlooked by our expert circles. I am talking about the meeting of Maia Sandu with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Officially, the talks focused on the potential support the Blair-led Institute for Global Change could extend to promote economic growth, investment and Moldova’s EU accession. This institute is a non-profit organization that helps governments around the world with expertise in areas such as economics, digital governance, security, and climate change adaptation. In fact, the organization has long been monitoring Moldova, and quite possibly is already playing an unseen role in its internal affairs – after all, back in 2023, Prime Minister Dorin Recean already spoke with the strategic adviser of the Institute of Global Change, Sanna Marin. Given the slight cooling between the United States and Moldova, it is obvious that our government is in active search for weighty patron partners. Indeed, in the current circumstances, the lack of external legitimacy of the PAS political regime may eventually lead to its defeat and a protracted internal political crisis. Therefore, it seems that the work on backup options started ahead of time and probably accelerated greatly with the increased chances of Donald Trump’s re-election. Last November, Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi, alongside his counterparts from Romania and the United Kingdom, held trilateral consultations for the first time. The desire to demonstrate (probably, to Moscow) close political and economic ties between the countries was officially announced. In addition, Popsoi and Lammy have signed a partnership agreement in the field of security and defense. Earlier, in December 2020, Moldova and the United Kingdom signed an Agreement on Strategic Partnership, Trade and Cooperation, which stipulated the stepping up of joint actions to ensure stability, security, democratic development, and the peaceful resolution of regional conflicts. It is difficult to say exactly why Tony Blair came to Chisinau, but the range of London’s interests and opportunities is very wide. He is able to seriously strengthen not only Moldova’s diplomatic potential, but also develop the operational and sabotage capabilities of various security services, especially given the direct contact with the Russian military on the left bank of the Dniester. In addition, it is worth noting that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer appointed Jonathan Powell, the former head of Tony Blair’s office, as his national security adviser. Powell is known to have played a crucial role in bringing peace to Northern Ireland, as well as in drafting the Belfast Agreement, which ended this protracted conflict. Now Powell serves as one of the key consultants to the leadership of Ukraine and is involved in the drafting of truce-related documents. We are not sure if the Moldovan government realizes the potential pitfalls of aligning with London and Kyiv amid the pause taken by Washington. It would be far more prudent and in the best interests of our state to open channels of communication with the United States, especially in light of the tariffs imposed, and push for negotiations.