“Where Meaning Fades and Chances Slip Away”

There is a growing demand within Moldovan society for positive change and solutions to pressing socio-economic issues. The external environment is also in a state of constant strategic shifts. However, the inertia of the PAS regime, backed by the EU, remains a major barrier to achieving normalcy

Events around our country are unfolding at a rapid pace, yet the evolution of the ruling regime toward societal consolidation, economic growth, and the rule of law with stable political institutions remains absent. Moldova has successfully weathered the presidential elections in neighboring Romania: the bold bet on the victory of former Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan paid off. Provided that a stable parliamentary coalition is formed on the right bank of the Prut, this outcome will help sustain cooperative and trust-based relations at the elite level. The authorities will also be spared from making difficult, independent decisions on how to engage with the defeated George Simion – the court hearing on his entry ban into Moldova has been postponed until July, apparently to coordinate the verdict with Bucharest. The phone talks between the presidents of Russia and the United States, as well as the diplomatic marathon in Istanbul on May 16, have so far failed to result in a ceasefire or create meaningful preconditions for a swift end to hostilities or a deal between Moscow and Kyiv. At the same time, neither the situation on the front lines nor the contours of the proposed peace agreement pose any direct threats to Chisinau’s interests. Moldova remains separated from the active combat zone by a stretch of Ukrainian territory that Russia does not claim, and there is no discussion, either publicly or through leaks or expert speculation, of rolling back Ukraine’s EU integration ambitions or introducing federalization, which could otherwise set a troubling precedent for Moldova. Chisinau has the opportunity to access the European Union financial resources and engage in a measured dialogue on membership, bearing in mind that the timing and format of a final decision will depend less on compliance with EU regulatory standards and more on geopolitical considerations and the progress of other candidate countries. Importantly, at this stage, representatives of the European Commission and the European Parliament do not challenge the idea of completing negotiations before Maia Sandu’s mandate expires. While Chisinau will have limited influence over the actual vote by EU member states, no national government has so far expressed strong opposition to Moldova’s candidacy. The PAS regime will undoubtedly face a number of challenges in the coming months. Chief among them is the approaching parliamentary campaign. The ruling party has already begun its promotional activities, including outdoor advertising, in violation of the electoral code. As the summer begins, the government will also need to secure new solutions for electricity procurement, as thermal power generation continues to decline significantly. However, financial support from Brussels will, in any case, provide a cushion to avoid blackouts and a collapse of the energy system, even if it means taking on debt that future generations will have to repay. Thus, despite the geopolitical storms, Maia Sandu and her team found themselves in fairly favorable conditions for stabilizing the country and improving living standards. However, the current leadership has proven incapable of meeting this challenge, repeatedly running into scandals, failures, and missteps, rooted in incompetent governance and an ideological agenda detached from Moldovan realities. The energy crisis early this year, which primarily affected the left bank of the Dniester, turned out to be less threatening for Chisinau than the negligence of Moldovan developers and oversight authorities. The fire in Durlesti led to tens of thousands of residents being cut off from electricity, internet, and mobile communication, while the government’s emergency aid of 10,000 lei to the fire victims has already drawn criticism for its obvious inadequacy. In the capital, fierce battles are unfolding over the adoption of this year’s budget, funding for hot meals in schools, bans on LGBT marches and propaganda, the cutting down of trees, and even the quality of tile installation in underground passages. While these issues are largely driven by the logic of the election campaign, they ultimately damage the approval ratings of both the central authorities and the municipal mayor, while it is the citizens who bear the brunt of the consequences. The government continues to turn a blind eye to the rapidly worsening poverty, the deepening crisis at the state-owned enterprise Moldova Railways, the dramatic collapse of exports, and the sharp decline in industrial and agricultural production. Earlier this week, news broke that Alexandru Badarau, the Prime Minister’s advisor on agriculture, had resigned, calling the position “fictitious” just two months after his appointment and stating bluntly that “there’s no point in keeping up this circus.” In response, the government claimed that the representative of the Farmers’ Power Association had failed to attend meetings, offer new ideas, or fulfill the tasks assigned to him. Against the backdrop of drought and frost, which are expected to lead to a catastrophic drop in yields for several crops, this public spat is a telling symptom of the authorities’ refusal to engage in dialogue with the agricultural sector and their inability to support the country’s farming industry in a time of crisis. The dismissal of another figure – former head of the Anticorruption Prosecutor’s Office, Veronica Dragalin, continues to spark fierce debate. Recently, it emerged that after her return to the United States, the Ministry of Justice suddenly managed to find a building for prosecutorial staff, with the handover process already underway. It is clear that this decision will serve as a trigger for a new wave of exposés and media attacks from Dragalin, aimed directly at Maia Sandu and her inner circle of advisers. Expelled from the PAS party, Olesea Stamate has so far refrained from sharp criticism. However, Parliament’s refusal to support her initiative to establish a commission investigating the amnesty of criminals serving life sentences will sooner or later compel her, at the very least, to try to defend her honor and reputation on her own. The antisemitic scandal surrounding the new 12th-grade Romanian history textbook continues to reverberate strongly. Education Minister Dan Perciun, defying recommendations from international organizations and the Jewish community, remains adamant in resisting its removal from the curriculum. It has already prompted a legal challenge. In this case, the ideological blindness of the ruling elite, rarely so detached from Brussels’ directives, stands in the way of containing the scandal without a significant loss of face for the authorities. PAS is simply squandering the opportunities afforded by the current geopolitical moment, entangling itself in ideological battles, failing at reforms, and mismanaging the day-to-day affairs of the state. No real progress can be expected from a regime incapable of competent governance, yet preserved by Brussels in a kind of political stasis. But there will be no revolution either, as the system’s stability is propped up by European Union funding and political backing, that is, by external legitimacy. As a result, the population is left to shoulder the full burden of unrealized reforms, broken promises, and unfulfilled hopes.