Is PAS Preparing to Take on Chisinau?

Riding the wave of victory after the parliamentary elections, the ruling party will be strongly tempted to launch a further political offensive to seize the capital and neutralize one of its potentially dangerous rivals

Following the results of the parliamentary elections, one question is being heard more and more clearly: what awaits Chisinau? It is not just the largest Moldovan city but also the place where public sentiments are shaped and key political accents are set. Control over the capital provides both administrative and strategic advantages: from managing budgets and infrastructure to influencing the information agenda and electoral processes. For this reason, voices within PAS are increasingly calling to build on the success of September 28 and provoke early elections in Chisinau. Any party aspiring to long-term leadership understands the importance of having the capital in its political portfolio. Today, Chisinau accounts for around 60% of Moldova’s GDP; it concentrates the largest enterprises, IT companies, international organizations, NGO offices, and, most importantly, the most active segment of the electorate. Symbolically, the city serves as the country’s “political mirror”, and losing it always deals a blow to a party’s image. In this sense, it is worth recalling the experience of the Democratic Party in 2018: despite its full control over the regions and parliament, defeat in the capital marked the beginning of the end of its political dominance. PAS understands this perfectly well and is likely giving serious thought to the political fate of the republic’s main city. At the center of this story stands the figure of Mayor Ion Ceban – a politician who has managed to survive under both the Democrats and PAS. His profile exemplifies how pragmatism and the image of an effective manager can become a survival strategy amid the turbulence and hostility of central authorities. In this sense, it is no coincidence that Ceban took part in the recent elections. This is an unequivocal signal: the mayor sees himself not merely as an administrator but as a politician of national stature. His party, MAN, though relatively young, has already entered parliament and aims to become one of the most prominent players on Moldova’s political stage in the coming years. As a result, Ceban faces a dilemma: to remain in the mayor’s office or return to his seat in parliament. In the first scenario, PAS would face a charismatic and experienced opposition politician with genuine support in the capital. The second option would trigger early elections in Chisinau, but it would allow Ceban to focus fully on his political career and strengthen his party’s presence across the whole of Moldova. According to sources close to MAN, there is an active debate within the party on this issue. Part of the team insists on maintaining control over Chisinau, while another sees a seat in parliament as an opportunity to expand influence at the national level. It is clear that Ceban’s choice is not so much political as it is strategic. Leaving the mayor’s office would mean losing daily contact with voters, that could prove fatal for a young political project. On the other hand, parliament offers access to the country’s main political platform and allows the party to fight for “hearts and minds”, including beyond the capital. It is important to understand that today, Chisinau remains one of the few municipal centers where a balance of political sentiments still exists. While the regions are dominated either by the pro-European agenda of PAS or the pro-Russian rhetoric of left-wing parties, Chisinau is, electorally speaking, a territory of “centrist attitudes”. It is precisely here that new alternative political projects tend to emerge. Ceban skillfully uses this factor, promoting himself as a neutral politician focused on development rather than ideology. His slogan “A city without politics” has become a recognizable brand, even though, in reality, the mayor’s office has long since turned into MAN’s political headquarters. Naturally, such a concentration of emerging alternative forces is politically dangerous for PAS, primarily because they draw away part of the moderate pro-European electorate, especially those weary of polarization and the constant struggle “for” or “against” Europe. For this reason, the ruling party has spent the past four years running an almost continuous “anti-Ceban” campaign, aiming to erode public trust in him and ultimately remove him from office. Despite the temptation to seize the capital on the wave of victory, PAS understands that rash moves against Ceban could come at a high political cost. It must be remembered that Chisinau’s residents are highly sophisticated voters. Any attempt to exert crude pressure on the local authorities in the capital would be perceived as a violation of democratic norms. Therefore, the removal or discrediting of a popular mayor would ultimately damage the image of those acting against him. As a result, if PAS “goes too far”, the government’s actions could provoke a powerful anti-government backlash. The development of the situation surrounding the capital will become clear in the coming months. However, based on the current dynamics, several fundamental scenarios can already be outlined – each of them, in our view, quite plausible. Scenario of conflict containment under soft pressure. In this case, Ceban remains primar, but the central authorities initiate a series of parliamentary investigations and audits targeting the city hall, as well as inspections of several major projects. The purpose of such a campaign is to discredit him and cast doubt on Ion Ceban’s managerial abilities, thereby weakening his chances not only of reelection in 2027 but also of undermining the potential growth of the MAN party. This scenario appears to be the safest option for the authorities, as PAS maintains the appearance of democratic conduct while avoiding open confrontation, yet effectively limits Ceban’s room for maneuver. Scenario of snap elections. If Ceban ultimately decides to move to Parliament, PAS may use this step as a pretext to organize early mayoral elections. This would allow the ruling party to try to consolidate the electorate by mobilizing pro-European forces under the slogan of giving the capital a “new breath”. However, there is a risk – the political history of Chisinau has repeatedly shown that the city’s residents tend to vote against those in power rather than support them. Therefore, PAS faces a serious danger of encountering yet another electoral backlash from Chisinau voters. Scenario of a “takeover” of the capital and the victimization of the mayor. The riskiest path is a blunt, hardline assault, removing Ceban from office by court order, criminal prosecution, or direct government intervention in municipal affairs. This course is dangerous because it can backfire. The 2018 experience showed that when the authorities clumsily interfere in Chisinau’s electoral processes, the result is not only mass discontent but also a loss of legitimacy. Thus, any attempt to sideline a popular mayor on flimsy grounds can turn Ceban into a political martyr and his party into a symbol of resistance against a discredited regime. It is evident that after the parliamentary elections, Ceban remains a risk factor for PAS and a political figure whose influence has already expanded beyond the municipal level. His party, though still small in size, has nonetheless demonstrated the ability to compete with established political structures that are weakening under the pressure of time and a changing socio-political reality. The ruling party likely fears that, under the right circumstances, Ceban could seize the initiative and form a genuine political alternative, that offers both society and external partners a relatively pragmatic and less ideologically driven model for Moldova’s development.