Regime’s Next Move Against Evghenia Gutul

Anton ŠVEC

After the parliamentary elections, the results of which clearly satisfied both PAS and its foreign patrons, the regime no longer needs a sacrificial victim. The ruling party will now seek centralization and control, essential for consolidating its course toward membership in the European Union and NATO

The legitimately elected bashkan of Gagauzia, Evghenia Gutul, has been behind bars for six months. Her first pre-trial detention was ordered at the end of March by a Chisinau court at the request of the prosecutor’s office. The same court sentenced her to seven years in prison in early August in a case concerning the illegal financing of a political party. The authorities responded to protests, including those near the penitentiary facility in the capital, by increasing police patrols. Two weeks after the parliamentary elections, the wave of discontent subsided, largely thanks to Evghenia Gutul herself, who urged her supporters to take care of their own safety and health amid adverse weather conditions. This undoubtedly humane step also indirectly indicates that negotiations have begun between the bashkan’s lawyers and the ruling party on a solution acceptable to both sides. The Gutul case is currently being reviewed by the Chisinau Court of Appeal, whose latest hearing took place on Monday without the defendants present. Following the session, the bashkan accused the authorities of forging evidence and claimed she had been offered to resign her mandate in exchange for the annulment of her sentence. The trial, marked by numerous violations, including infringements of the right to defense and the exclusion of witnesses, continues. The next court hearing is scheduled for Thursday. Obviously, the issue will not be resolved this week or even within the next month, and will continue to “simmer” at the Court of Appeal amid positional bargaining. For instance, the criminal case involving Igor Dodon and the infamous “black kuliok” has been postponed indefinitely. Right now, PAS has other priorities – in order to certify the results of the parliamentary elections, it must first settle the political fate of Vasile Costiuc’s Democracy at Home party. In this matter, the Constitutional Court will adopt whatever decision is handed down from the President’s Office, and the relevant consultations are already underway and almost become public knowledge. The ruling party itself has yet to define its position. On the one hand, PAS is interested in seizing the mandates of the main surprise of the electoral campaign, aiming to secure a constitutional majority. On the other hand, the regime is reluctant to incur further reputational costs associated with undemocratic methods of political management, especially if it proves impossible to buy off or lure a few other opposition deputies into its orbit. After the election results are certified and the mandates allocated, PAS will turn to forming a government, fortunately, a candidate for prime minister has already been found. Next, they will need to find ways to remove Ion Ceban from control of Chisinau through a deadlock over the approval of the capital’s budget and collusion within the municipal council, which will inevitably be accompanied by a pronounced confrontation. Among other things, the President’s Office and the justice system need to determine their tactics and approach regarding the Plahotniuc case. So far, there are suspiciously few signals of the authorities’ intentions, and even the usual leaks that typically accompany such cases have been notably absent. Nevertheless, by late autumn or the end of the year, the regime will inevitably face the need to reach an agreement with Evghenia Gutul and, more broadly, to define the parameters of “direct control” over the Gagauz autonomy. The authorities objectively require centralization and control over the entire territorial perimeter of the country in the context of negotiations on European Union membership and to establish a reliable NATO and EU vanguard in the struggle against Russia, including in the capacity of a rear support for Ukraine. Only total dominance within the domestic sphere will allow Chisinau to intensify pressure on Tiraspol with the aim of accelerated reintegration, without which, despite various public rhetoric, accession to the European Union appears problematic. In order to approach this issue fully prepared, the regime has a year to a year and a half to consolidate power, particularly in Gagauzia and Chisinau, to form a stable government and strengthen the military component in line with the recently adopted defense strategy. Addressing the budget deficit and reviving the economy could also prove to be a useful support in this effort. Evghenia Gutul openly describes the potential offer from the authorities – surrendering her mandate in exchange for a review of her sentence and a relatively swift release (PAS, being in a more comfortable position, will not agree to a full annulment of the criminal case or the sentence). Why might such a deal be acceptable to both sides? The current regime suffers reputational damage not only because of the questionable nature of the sentence and the authoritarian handling of judicial proceedings concerning the bashkan. The problem also lies in the fact that the existence of this dissent highlights the immaturity of the control system and the Sandu team’s inability to conduct effective domestic political management, clearly displeasing to Western patrons, who require a legitimate and functional “spearhead” directed toward Russia. Evghenia Gutul’s exit from the arena of political confrontation would constitute an organizational defeat for the opposition forces associated with Ilan Sor and a moral blow to the Gagauz autonomy. On this momentum, the authorities would be able to solidify their monopoly in Comrat, even against the will of the voters, who once again issued a “red card” to the regime on September 28. On the other hand, the Bashkan of Gagauzia may accept the offer from the President’s Office, which controls Moldova’s justice system, since betting on sidelining PAS and revisiting the entire set of political criminal cases has proven unsuccessful. Evghenia Gutul and her supporters lack the resources to endlessly fuel the image of a regime victim and thereby unsettle the authorities. Especially since such attempts are inherently hopeless when Maia Sandu enjoys such strong diplomatic backing from the EU bureaucracy. One must also consider the purely human factor in this case: “I am a mother. My youngest child is three years old. Every day he searches the rooms for me because he is used to me picking him up from kindergarten. Today, I was deprived of the right to be with my children, the right to maternal affection. This is worse than any sentence”. Thus, by late autumn, after one way or another resolving pressing issues in the capital, PAS could compel Gutul to surrender her mandate and set a date for early elections for the bashkan (and, likely, the People’s Assembly) of Gagauzia. This scenario would allow the current head of the autonomy to regain her freedom in a year to a year and a half and, outside the image of a hero and freedom fighter, leave Moldova (following the example of Marina Tauber). In theory, Svetlana Popan could be released from prison even sooner. Of course, the implementation of this relatively humane scenario could be influenced by the struggle for the mayoralty of Chisinau and/or by geopolitical circumstances. However, PAS is interested in a relatively peaceful “neutralization” of its internal opponents within the country, so as to approach the resolution of strategic issues with Russia and Transnistria in 2027 in the best possible position.