Europe Is Getting Older: EU Enlargement Could Offer a Chance for Demographic Renewal

Official Eurostat forecasts show the EU population could drop by about 9% by 2050 compared to 2025 if migration stops completely. The decline is expected to continue in the coming decades, reaching 23% by 2075 and 34% by 2100, according to euronews.com. Labor shortages are one of the key aspects of demographic change. According to Peter Bosch, senior research associate at the Egmont Institute, the EU is expected to lose around 1 million workers annually until 2050. If labor participation rates by age and gender remain at the average level observed between 2011 and 2022, the labor force will shrink by 20.2% by 2070. This is equivalent to a reduction of approximately 42.8 million workers, according to a report by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC). In less favourable scenarios, the decline could be even steeper, reaching 26.7% or 55.9 million people. JRC researchers emphasize that “migration could play a decisive role in shaping the EU labor market in the coming decades, especially if migrants are successfully employed and integrated into the workforce.” A number of studies have examined how the possible enlargement of the EU could help address the projected labor shortage. The European Commission notes that the historic enlargement of the EU in 2004 brought significant benefits and high economic growth to both the new member states and the EU as a whole.