President of Moldova Intends to Discuss the Status of Transdniestria. Does He Have Enough Determination?

The President of the Republic of Moldova, Igor Dodon, once again announced his intention to start discussing the issue of the Transdniestria’s status based on the principle of the territorial integrity of Moldova. The head of state wrote this on Facebook after a meeting with the Head of the OSCE Mission to Moldova Michael Scanlan. I note that this diplomat completes his official mission in this capacity and leaves the country, so it is unlikely that Mr. President will ever be able to discuss this topic with Mr. Scanlan. But he chose the right reason for the statement, as the OSCE is one of the main co-mediators in the international Transdniestrian conflict settlement process. By sending such an unambiguous signal, Igor Dodon counts on understanding and support of this particular structure, whose regional influence significantly increased after it is involved in the conflict settlement in Ukraine. According to Dodon, today there are “real chances to take important steps in the Transdniestrian conflict settlement after the parliamentary elections. I still want to start discussing issues ... on the development and adoption of a special legal status of Transdniestria”. Today, experts more often call two possible options for settling the Transdniestrian issue:  either to give Transdniestria the status of constituent territory of the federation within Moldova, or to guarantee the very special status that President Dodon talks about. Moscow is consistently insisting on the federation, international partners refer to a special status within the united country. It is no coincidence that Igor Dodon used this water and widely interpreted language – anything could lie behind it, besides the federal concept in Moldova is severely criticized from most political flanks. However, even despite the vague “special status” concept, the beginning of a real and systematic work on a political solution to the conflict could become a serious challenge for Igor Dodon. According to the expert of the Institute of Economics, the Russian Academy of Sciences, the expert of the Russian International Affairs Council, Andrei Devyatkov, quoted by Rossiyskaya Gazeta, “solution of the Transdniestrian issue is part of Dodon’s political programme”. “This is one of the foreign policy initiatives of Dodon and the Socialist Party, which is becoming more relevant on the eve of the parliamentary elections,” explained Devyatkov. He notes that the mechanism for discussing the Transdniestria’s status can be two-stage: “It is necessary to develop an agreed proposal on the Transdniestrian issue from Chisinau, where there are forces occupying various positions. And then you can make such a proposal for discussion in the 5+2 format.” A serious problem arises at this level already: The Moldovan government is unlikely to agree to discuss the ‘federative’ status of Transdniestria, and Moscow will push its main political partner in Moldova – that is, Igor Dodon – to such a concept in its various forms and modifications, even with an exotic shift of the symmetry axis of the federation, as it was in 2003. However, Moscow is far away, and the pro-European government is close, in Chisinau. The victory of the socialists in the forthcoming parliamentary elections in 2019 is not a settled issue, so the opinion of the European camp of Moldovan politics is likely to be a ‘blocking package’ of any serious initiatives on Transdniestria. In general, it should be understood that bright declarations of good intentions are common before the elections. Moreover, it is useful. Especially when statements are framed in language that fully complies with the declarations of the OSCE Ministerial Council on the topic of conflict resolution. Why not to please the departing diplomat and at the same time to signal the head of the Mission who comes about the determination of the Moldovan president to take into account the OSCE’s position? Another question is, will the socialists have enough political courage and, again, the votes in the parliament in order to take the first obvious and concrete step in the legal field of Moldova and, to begin with repealing the existing Law of 2005, which already determines the status of Transdniestria? After all, logically, this step legally opens the way to full-fledged negotiations between Chisinau and Tiraspol about the status, of course, if the latter is ready. I am certain that Vienna and Moscow made relevant notes regarding these declarations by Igor Dodon and follow his further steps with interest. Sooner or later, but even in Moldova, electoral processes are coming to an end and it’s time to give concrete answers to concrete voters as well as to political partners who invested in their Moldovan allies so generously and actively.