Russian Ministry of Interior again announced an amnesty for Moldovans who violated the terms of their stay in the Russian Federation. Moscow openly says that it was done at the request of Igor Dodon during his meeting with Vladimir Putin. Approximately 170 thousand labour migrants will be subject to the amnesty: from February 1 to February 24, 2019, they will be able to leave for Moldova without administrative penalty. The amnesty is expected to add votes to the presidential Socialist Party (PSRM) on the eve of the parliamentary elections scheduled for 24th February 2019.
RTA columnist Dorin MOCANU points out that the amnesty can lead to unexpected consequences if the Democrats decide to use it against Dodon.
Risk No. 1
It is obvious that the “amnesty window” was scheduled for election day – Moldovan nationals returning to their homeland will be able to vote for Igor Dodon’s party in gratitude. In fact, the situation is more complicated: political forces are fighting for each voter, and these provisional 170,000 is a “red meat” when even a thousand votes can tip the scales in favour of a party or a candidate. Obviously, the Democratic Party of Moldova (PDM) will fight for this electoral reserve, and for a wonder, the Democrats have good starting positions in this struggle.
It cannot be ruled out that the government, at another initiative of Plahotniuc, will come up with next charitable program like the First Home and Good Roads for migrants who return to Moldova from January 1 to February 24. Obviously, PDM technologists will try to accuse Igor Dodon of political cynicism, because the decision on amnesty looks like a proposal to choose between deportation from Russia or a vote for PSRM. The coordinator’s media resources will try to instill in all those who will return a sense of resentment and will promise that when PDM will take the power, they will not have to leave for work.
Families of those who will not be able to take advantage of Igor Dodon’s achievements for any reason will fall in a special “risk zone”, since they will feel injustice most of all.
Risk No. 2
Another problem of the amnesty is that it unpredictably increases the electoral lists. No one yet knows the number of Moldovan nationals who will return home in fact. Therefore, such a massive return is a convenient basis for different machinations.
It is no secret that the Democratic Party controls the administrative resource in Moldova. Democrats may well get the missing votes and add as many “dead souls” as they like, especially in the single-mandate elections, where a margin of a few votes is enough to win. In addition, the pre-election “bombing campaign” of society by raising wages and pensions, social programs and indicators of economic growth will leave its mark. They can always say that people have returned and made the right choice as appreciation of positive changes in Moldova.
The return of hundreds of thousands of Moldovans will also have the opposite effect when voting abroad, that is, in Russia. The amnesty automatically deprives of the meaning of attempts to increase the number of polls in Russia, since, logically, it will be unnecessary.
Risk No. 3
Another issue related to the amnesty is that the Constitutional Court will try to recognize Igor Dodon’s agreement with Vladimir Putin as “unfair campaigning” or “Russia's interference in parliamentary elections” [ed. note: at the time of publication, Pavel Philip has already declared “Russian intervention”]. Anything can happen in modern Moldova, and such accusations may be enough to postpone the election to a later date.
It is important to understand that labour migrants violate Russian law not out of malice – they try not to lose job in Russia, since it supports their families in Moldova. Most of those who come to Moldova before February 24 will try to return to Russia as soon as possible, and many of them will immediately buy a return ticket before leaving home.
If, for any technical reasons, the elections “shift” by two weeks, these people will leave without voting.
In the end, the massive return of migrants could lead to another early election – if the court considers the results of the February vote to be invalid just because of “foreign interference”. Many experts believe that the PDM is already considering early elections in the spring or summer 2019 as one of the options for maintaining power. In this scenario, Moscow will unlikely introduce another amnesty, since another unsuccessful manoeuvre will damage both the image of Igor Dodon and the reputation of Russia.
Any possible scenario of migration amnesty can result in significant changes of the upcoming elections and open a window of opportunity for all participants in the electoral race. As already mentioned, 170,000 thousand votes are a huge resource as a matter for heavy fighting. 
