RTA expert Sergey ISAENKO discusses the results of the visit of high representatives of Brussels, Moscow and Washington to Moldova. According to the analyst, the results of the trips are a bad signal for Chisinau
Sergey Isaenko, RTA:
The fact that three high-ranking officials from Russia, Europe and the United States came to Moldova at once is, of course, evidence of the high and even scrupulous attention paid to Chisinau by the major powers. The American diplomat Fraden was short-spoken and expressed his willingness to work with any political force, the European Commissioner Hahn hinted that without a coalition in Parliament there can be no talk about European money before the end of the year, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak clearly and directly expressed the opinion of Russia: a temporary alliance in Parliament, ‘de-oligarchization’ and early elections in a normal transparent environment.
At first glance, it seems that the situation in Moldova is of fundamental interest for Moscow and Brussels, and Washington. However, oddly enough, there is a clear devaluation of the country as a geopolitical asset: otherwise, the discussion of the situation in Chisinau would be quite different.
Analyzing the message of each of the envoys who arrived yesterday in the Moldovan capital makes clear that the local authorities in 2019 find it more difficult every day to prove their special importance for the world capitals. The ruling group of Vlad Plahotniuc and his Democratic Party has been using this method since 2014. Then, against the background of the Ukrainian crisis, the Moldovan authorities showed themselves as fighters against the Russian threat, advocates of European values and the outpost of the Western world in post-Soviet Eastern Europe, professional stewards of the country that is the European “success story”. After a time, it became clear to both the West and the East that this democratic tinsel wrapped corruption, multibillion-dollar theft from the banking system and abuse of power, which in the end allowed oligarch Plahotniuc to establish a regime of individual governance in the country.
Since then, the position of Moldova’s European partners has tightened to the limit: before the parliamentary elections on February 24, the European Union stopped macro-financial assistance to Moldova and made a point that it will not resume it until the country’s government is formed free from the pressure of the Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party.
Now is the most dramatic moment. Three months after the elections, Brussels, Moscow and Washington are closely watching the processes in Moldova, but at the same time they are somewhat aloof – leaving the final decision on the participants of the political race. The impression is that the three leading capitals independently (or still having agreed) conduct an experiment on the local political beau monde. The political beau monde somehow enlisted the support of the population and got to the Parliament, but cannot logically complete what started, following their own ideas and promises.
This is the position of the observers, who are ready to advise, but not to take responsibility for other people’s mistakes or cunning plans, clearly demonstrated by the three guests of the Moldovan capital yesterday, June 3. Apparently, the moment has come when the external partners are equally tired of the endless Moldovan choir with the constant shifting of responsibility to the ‘senior’ partners for failures in the management, social policy and development of the country.
Now the ‘mentors’ are closely watching whether this ‘special’ Moldovan political body could survive being nurtured in an ivory tower. Therefore, it is not surprising that the American diplomat Brad Fraden confirmed the initial position: the United States, in general, find it of little importance who rules Moldova – the country is hooked on Western financial assistance, military cooperation with Romania and NATO, besides carefully watched by Romanian advisers. Washington is quite capable of further pouring millions of dollars into the Moldovan ‘civil sector’, which over the years increases its influence on the political situation in the country. So the US is already managing Moldova well. The struggle against Russian influence in Transdniestria is another topic, where the image of the Moldovan government amidst traditional political diffusion does not play a fundamental role. To rephrase the catch phrase of Henry Ford: “you can have the government painted any color you want as long as it’s under control.”
The European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy Johannes Hahn was also reserved and cold-blooded. According to him, in case of early elections Moldova will lose the support of the IMF and the European Union. Once such statements in respect of Chisinau were impossible: in those years, when the government of Moldova was a “leader” in the fight against the Russian threat. Now the leadership of the country is just a team of corrupt officials, who can be deprived of European money without regard to the consequences for ordinary citizens.
Statement by the representative of the President of Russia Dmitry Kozak, who openly offered his scenario, is a sign of the same type. Not only Moscow alone sees no future for the Plahotniuc’s regime. The last allies of Russia in Moldova are Igor Dodon’s socialists, so Dmitry Kozak openly warned them in Chisinau of a coalition with Plahotniuc. Russia has not been deluding itself about Moldova for a long time, especially in the light of the well-known experience of 2003.
As a result, in 2019, Moldova, playing geopolitical intrigues, still considers itself a good marriageable bride for international partners – but this trick does not work. In the final analysis, the visits of the envoys of the three capitals to Chisinau results in a disappointing verdict – hardly anyone needs the Moldovan ‘scarlet woman’ with a dowry of serious problems and a bad temper. Today, the ruling Moldovan regime has no real opportunity to shake down geopolitical centers with its pseudo-strategic value. Only real changes can save the country. 
