Sergey Cheban: Plahotniuc’s Last Chance Is to Delay the Inevitable

The RTA expert is sure that Andrian Candu’s trip to the US and desperate attempts of the Democratic Party to ‘wave’ Washington put an end to Plahotniuc’s political future, although they can delay his final defeat. According to Sergey Cheban, Washington’s long favoring of the Plahotniuc’s regime can still help the main oligarch of Moldova to stay afloat, but this assistance will rather be ‘supportive therapy’. “It should be understood that Plahotniuc finds himself in this critical situation in the first place by his own mistake and not because of pressure from international partners. The leader of the Democrats was outplayed by the simplest scenario, which one and all predicted by the end of spring and everyone around insisted on this – the coalition of ACUM and the PSRM. Until recently, the world capitals pronouncedly kept away from domestic Moldovan affairs and put no pressure. The leader of the PDM simply ceased to believe that the right-wingers and the Socialists would agree, lowered his guard and lost at the very last moment,” says the expert. “In the end, the attempts of the PDM to declare the Parliament, the President and the government outlawed looked unconvincing and even comical. Plahotniuc misstepped, and everyone saw it. The parade of ‘recognitions’ from Moscow, European capitals and even, in the end, Bucharest is not pressure, but a natural result of the Democrats’ loss,” Cheban notes. According to the analyst, there is no last chance for the PDM. “In fact, they have already had this chance when neither the EU, nor the States, nor Russia interfered in the internal policy of Moldova during several months. Of course, we can recall how before the elections the European Union hinted to Plahotniuc that fraud and bribery of deputies are inadmissible. But it also should not be considered pressure, because the EU eventually recognized the elections, like all other partners of Moldova,” the expert explains. Cheban emphasizes that Plahotniuc had three months to overcome his own ambitions and really interest ACUM or Socialists. The expert recalls that during all this time Plahotniuc, whose name has already become a household name in regional policy, has not given up his Prime Minister’s ambitions, has not proposed any unifying project and has not resigned himself to the need to share power. “No one prevented Plahotniuc from winning or losing – therefore, the purity of this political experiment called ‘the moment of truth for the Democratic Party’ tends to be 100%,” emphasizes Cheban. According to the analyst, the Democrats’ hopes for Washington’s loyalty and the recent convulsive attempts to please the US with the transfer of the Embassy in Israel or the allocation of land in Chisinau are just another sign of weakness. “The only thing Plahotniuc can count on in this regard is a small delay from political lynching. Perhaps Washington will call on all political forces to calm down in order to prevent excessive euphoria among pro-Russian socialists. After all, during a long time the leader of the Democratic Party perfectly opposed the interests of Moscow in the region. However, now Plahotniuc can no longer be considered the master of Moldova, which confidently ‘solves’ issues for the benefit of his allies. Now the Chairman of the PDM is just one of many Moldovan politicians who were defeated: like Vladimir Voronin or Vlad Filat,” says the expert. “Washington has never bet on the weak. American foreign policy is guided only by US interests, and the US interests are pure pragmatics. From this point of view, Plahotniuc is already a write off, because even if he manages to retain power, the whole world knows that it is possible to knock over the master of Moldova, and not with the greatest effort. Washington is unlikely to be afraid to change horses in the midstream, but the blown horses will definitely be shot,” Sergey Cheban is sure. “Candu’s trip to Washington may be a good opportunity to negotiate the best conditions for the leaders of the Democratic Party for a peaceful transfer of power and subsequent ‘retirement’. However, the PDM office may not realize this. They may still believe that ‘it can be fixed’ and intend to fight to the end. In this case, the end of the PDM era in Moldova may become even more inglorious,” the analyst emphasizes.