Go in Parallel: What’s Happening Around Donbas and Transdniestria?

While preparing a meeting of the leaders of the Normandy four to discuss Donbas, there are negotiations on the Transdniestrian settlement in Bratislava Nikolai Tkach, RTA: The first breakthrough in recent years is expected this month in the negotiations on Donbas. Kyiv has signed the so-called Steinmeier Formula developed in 2016 under the OSCE German Chairmanship. A large number of rumors and speculation circulates now around the document. No wonder Ukraine’s consent to this formula provoked unabated protests of the patriotic population and accusations of President Volodymyr Zelensky of capitulation to the Kremlin. In fact, the notorious formula suggests some steps that will partially ‘legitimize’ the power in the self-proclaimed republics and thus open new opportunities for interaction with the elected leaders there. First of all, the formula provides for a ceasefire and withdrawal of troops from the line of contact. Then elections are expected under the supervision of the OSCE, granting political and economic autonomy to certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as amnesty for combatants. On the one hand, in this scenario, Donetsk and Luhansk gain legal economic and political control over their territories. On the other hand, Ukraine regains the lost section of the state border in 2014, and this is a huge success for Kyiv. Meanwhile, the next round of talks on Transdniestria in the 5+2 format starts in Bratislava. It is interesting that the forthcoming meeting also has ‘German roots’: for the past three years, the parties have been working on the so-called Berlin+ formula. It is based on the Protocol signed in June 2016, during the OSCE German Chairmanship, which was later supplemented during the meetings in Vienna and Rome. It reflects the social and humanitarian problems that exist between Chisinau and Tiraspol due to the lasting conflict. It is easy to see that the settlement in Donbas and Transdniestria is being intensified almost simultaneously. It is symbolic that in both cases the negotiations are based on German proposals. Earlier, RTA repeatedly wrote that the Russian-German consensus will be the basis for a fundamentally different dynamics around territorial conflicts in Europe. Now, when oligarchic regimes in Kyiv and Chisinau were replaced by politicians more obedient and dependent on the European Union, the process of negotiations went much better. Moscow and Berlin might be planning to develop a single model for solving such situations in Europe, and are testing it in Transdniestria and Donbas (adjusted for the difference in the stages of development of these conflicts). The Steinmeier Formula for Donbas is likely to freeze the conflict in Eastern Ukraine by adopting a special status of the certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions acceptable to Ukrainian legislation. This will stop the fighting and, as in the case of Transdniestria, direct the negotiations towards solving socio-economic and humanitarian problems, which will gradually bring Kyiv and the self-proclaimed republics closer together. Despite the relatively negative experience of the protracted Transdniestrian settlement, we can assume that the process will go much faster in Donbas thanks to the mentioned Russian-German tandem. Berlin’s influence on Kyiv and Chisinau, and Moscow’s influence on the ‘rebel’ territories, could push the talks forward. Ultimately, this will bring both processes to a common standard and finally proceed to the final phase of the settlement.