Expert: "Plan B" for the President of Moldova

Sergiu CEBAN The presidential election headquarters simulates various scenarios designed to ensure Igor Dodon’s power retention and preserving him within the internal political system of Moldovan coordinates regardless the presidential elections outcome. Today, the Moldovan parliament returns to work after summer holidays opening the autumn-winter political season. As part of the plenary session, deputies will consider a number of socio-economic bills, changes to the current year budget and certain measures to support the population and economic agents who have suffered from pandemic and drought. The main attention is directed towards the ruling majority, which formally consists of only 48 deputies. As before, the Democratic Party is the determining factor in the further stability of the coalition. This, apparently, can explain regular meetings of foreign diplomats with the PDM leadership, as well as the periodic signs of attention from the opposition leaders. According to experts, as the presidential election approaches, the relations of coalition partners are becoming less trusting and predictable, forcing party organisms to act instinctively, without looking back at each other and ensure their political survival. Yesterday, PDM leader Pavel Filip once again confirmed that the party he heads will not play along with anyone in the near future but will continue acting within its tactical line without nominating its own candidate and will not express electoral support to anyone. It is possible that such a position was formulated only for the first round. On the one hand, the democrats in the ruling coalition will not interfere with the main candidate represented by the incumbent President Igor Dodon, supporting the "monolithic" power and giving generally an important political signal about a single candidate for two. But if you look closer to the situation, it becomes clear that such a position is very rational, since it suits not only the leader of the socialists but oddly enough, his main rival Maia Sandu who will have one less pro-Western opponent. At the same time, it seems that the Democrats decided to somewhat strengthen their negotiating positions both before the second round and in the post-election period so that to achieve the most advantageous position for themselves. In addition, such an equidistant decision avoids a further split and deepening of internal party differences, while maintaining its albeit nominal adherence to pro-European views. Meanwhile, the election campaign is picking up the required speed every week, promising a high level of competition. Given Vladimir Voronin’s refusal to run in the electoral race, the main struggle on the left flank is likely to unfold between Renato Usaty and the current president. However, experts do still not exclude the possibility for the Balti mayor to quit the race, especially after the president yesterday stated that elections might end in the first round. On the right flank, as expected, the number of candidates is much higher. This suggests that the epicenter of political processes is focused precisely on this edge of the electoral field. Many drew attention to the way the incumbent president delayed registering with the CEC. Although he tuned in to the election campaign for a long time and methodically prepared everyone for his nomination to solve according to him “fateful tasks of state importance” like the Transdniestrian settlement. As a result, the start came out somewhat blurred, with no sparking and with a clear discrepancy with the level of ambitions of the head of state. It is possible that this situation may be due to the lack of unity within the head of state’s entourage that complicates and slows down the process of making final decisions. Experts attribute this to the fact that in conditions of intense competition, the presidential election headquarters models various scenarios for Igor Dodon's guaranteed participation in country governing. Against this background, the idea of current government’s likely resignation has recently been infiltrated into social networks and into the Moldovan media space. If hypothetically considering this scenario, the resignation of ministers might have an exclusively tactical intention and clearly aimed not to please the opposition. On the contrary, its goal may be implementing a non-trivial scenario, thus clearing the way for Igor Dodon to become prime minister. Theoretically, if the incumbent president resigns to take control of the country into his "strong prime minister's hands", the parliamentary majority will be able to vote for the new government in the very near future and in fact guarantee preserving the post of head of the cabinet even if Maia Sandu wins. Earlier, RTA has already assumed the premier Igor Dodon’s prospects. Theoretically, in such a situation he will be able to maintain a leading role in the political life of the state. This scenario is beneficial to many political forces, since it will allow "tying the hands" to Maia Sandu and at least prevent her from dissolving the current parliament - which is not at all necessary for the majority of its current inhabitants.