Russia’s Plan to Break Moldova: What Was It?

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The country is being driven ever closer to the point of no return, beyond which the most radical scenarios lie
Semyon ALBU, RTA: The events around the Black Sea region are rapidly spiraling. There remains little doubt that this year will be definitive, most likely the first half of it. Everyone has been preparing for this moment for a long time, accumulating forces, crossing all kinds of “red lines”. Ukraine has already agreed to receive hundreds of Western tanks and long-range ammunition, and the aviation issue is slowly being sorted out. However, all this will arrive in the neighboring country with a certain time lag. Which somehow pushes Russia towards active offensive actions right now, when there is still a window of opportunity. I believe western strategists are relying on the fact that Russian troops will inflict the “doomsday blow”, about which the whole “blogo-space” has been talking for a long time, but Ukrainians will manage to repulse it with heavy losses for Russians, and then they will launch counter-offensive with their previously prepared reserves using NATO equipment. And, for example, cut the land corridor to Crimea, bringing down the entire southern front for the Russian Federation. Last Friday, as we know, Russia once again launched a massive missile attack on Ukraine, preceded yesterday by a drone strike. Whether this is artillery preparation for what the Western media define as a “terrible” offensive or another shot at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure remains to be seen. But there is no doubt that a decisive battle in Ukraine is imminent. And although it will not end the war, it will certainly set its further trajectory and definitively swing the pendulum to one side. Amid such politico-military tectonics in the region, it will be difficult, or even impossible, for Moldova to sit quietly on the sidelines. And it is not that our power, which is closely addicted to the western grants and credits, wanted or could resist it. As a reminder, last year alone our country: received military injections exceeding the annual defense budget; joined many NATO platforms, including the “Ramstein coalition”; was included in the European Union’s military mobility plan. And that is just what we have been officially informed about. Unofficially, they are also preparing us as a rear base to support the AFU and as a staging post for possible new refugee flows. In general, there is a lot on our fragile shoulders at the moment. And, by all appearances, the list of tasks assigned to our leadership does not end there. After all Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the other day that he had transmitted to us Russia’s plan for “breaking Moldova” intercepted by the Ukrainian intelligence. Allegedly there is a document that spells out in detail how the political situation in the country will be destroyed, “democratic order” will be eliminated and the control of the Russian Federation through, probably, local proxies will be established. One is tempted to ask: what was it? The Presidency and the Foreign Ministry very obscurely and in general terms commented on Zelensky’s rather specific statement, and only the SIS did not let us down: it confirmed that such a plan had indeed been sent to us and that “certain measures are now being taken to identify attempts to destabilize the situation in cooperation with partner special services”. Of course, no one has shown the plan to the public. Well, not for the first time – even the court human rights activists and journalists are already complaining about the incredible transparency of the regime. But, in fact, it is not so important whether there was such a plan or not – it is more important to understand why the topic has been raised now. As we have long been led along the Ukrainian path, one could expect a political reshuffle in Moldova as well to bring new people, more suitable for the upcoming changes. And here we are – Natalia Gavrilita resigned. Rumor has it that she gave way to the current secretary of the Security Council, Dorin Recean. An interesting appointment, indeed, suggestive of what is to come. Gavrilita herself, however, made a spoiler that security will be the priority of the new government. And how symbolic that today another unauthorized crossing of our airspace by Russian missiles was reported. Some simple calculations lead us to the following conclusions. The “good times” will soon become even better, and generally the best in the history of Moldova. It is clear that the main role in Russia’s destabilization plan was given to the center-left pro-Russian opposition (pro-Russian in the sense that they do not call for severing all relations with Russia). It was under pressure all last year, and in the end it was even deprived of its largest media outlets. Yet, the worst is still to come. The PSRM and the Sor Party will surely fall under the official ban. They will be followed by others who are undesirable to both the regime and Western mentors. The latter are already busy preparing reservists to replace the worn-out PAS and replenishing the desolate left wing with obedient “spoilers”. The new prime minister, a security forces representative, will certainly reformat the political field swiftly and decisively. And not only that. We can see that tensions around the Transdniestrian settlement are growing. On the one hand, the law on separatism was adopted. On the other hand, the military component is being enhanced: supplies of equipment and weaponry, all these endless exercises with the armies of NATO countries. Add to this constant, supposedly routine, military record checks and tempting offers from Ukraine to do with the separatist region – all this hangs a sword of Damocles over the entire left-bank elite. And also over the Russian military in Transdniestria. As we see, a military-police operation to restore constitutional order in the left-bank areas has become even more realistic, especially if things in Ukraine go the way the West wants. However, another scenario is that the Ukrainian conflict will shift towards Russia. So far, in my opinion, there are no particular prerequisites for this, but it would be presumptuous to completely dismiss such a scenario. But even in this case, the Russian plan to undermine Moldova would be appropriate. After all, Moscow is not able right now to hamper the intra-Moldovan cleanup and the Transdniestrian gambit. And if, all of a sudden, Russia will get an opportunity to do so, for example, after the seizure of Odessa, our regime will always have time to request Romanian aid under the pretext of Russian aggression, which was announced long ago and was even formalized into the corresponding plan. Moreover, given the Romanian contingents on our territory, the Kremlin is unlikely to venture into the territory of Moldova. All in all, an interesting string of events is beginning to spiral around Moldova. We are in the Endgame now, as it was said in a recent blockbuster movie. It seems that we will have a no less spectacular plot twist. But will it benefit our people? I think you all know the answer.