Moldova Ahead of the Vote: Power Consolidation or Opposition Surge?

As Moldova approaches its parliamentary elections, the political landscape is becoming increasingly polarized. On one side is the pro-European camp, dominated by the Party of Action and Solidarity; on the other, an opposition bloc striving to consolidate its ranks

The coming months promise to be heated, both in terms of weather and politics. All sides are gearing up for a decisive showdown that could shape Moldova’s trajectory for the next 5-10 years. Amid a protracted socio-economic crisis, high inflation, growing public fatigue with the government, and declining trust in PAS, the balance of power remains in flux, offering no guarantee of a clear-cut victory for the ruling party. Under these circumstances, the battle for the future composition of parliament takes on not just an electoral, but a geopolitical dimension. The key question is the direction of Moldova’s foreign policy: will the accelerated path toward European integration continue, or will there be a return to the traditional governance models that have dominated the country for the past three decades? The answer is crucially important for the republic’s strategic development and its future political landscape. At first glance, the European integration proponents seem to seriously outnumber their opponents. Public opinion polls indicate that between 50% and 60% of citizens support pro-European views. However, this majority is only nominal, considering how fragmented the pro-European camp truly is. Moreover, the Party of Action and Solidarity is losing popularity, primarily due to a lack of visible results amid worn-out slogans, recurring scandals, and managerial inertia. In this context, some experts and political strategists are discussing the possibility of a broad coalition that would unite PAS with alternative pro-Western and pro-Romanian forces. Clearly, such an alliance could encompass the entire spectrum of the pro-European electorate, aiming to secure a decisive parliamentary majority. This, in turn, would allow for the continuity of domestic and foreign policy, as well as enable constitutional amendments. It cannot be ruled out that following the Moldova–European Union summit scheduled for early July, Maia Sandu may personally announce such an initiative, appealing to citizens and political forces for unity. Something similar, as we recall, happened during the presidential race with the Pact for Europe. The likelihood of this scenario will depend on several variables: how the pre-election events unfold, the ruling party’s polling figures, and the moves the opposition makes, which is also striving to keep pace with the changing circumstances. On the other side of the political spectrum, intriguing developments suggest an attempt to form a united front with one primary goal: to remove PAS from power – or at least curb its unilateral control of the country. It is evident that this process is unfolding with the support of Moscow, which is providing both organizational and financial assistance. At the core of this strategy lies the construction of a broad opposition bloc comprising socialists, communists, and other pro-Russian, anti-Western, and sovereigntist political forces. Arbitrary alliances between different parties will not automatically lead to the sum of all votes. The electoral preferences of citizens who vote for left-wing forces vary greatly. Even the appearance of one politician alongside another can backfire. Consequently, the consolidation of the opposition must be more rational and not resemble the experience of forming the Communists and Socialists bloc. In this sense, it is no coincidence that last week saw the announcement of the creation of an independent For Moldova platform, which describes itself as a non-partisan movement focused on national interests. Formally, it advocates sovereignty, neutrality, sustainable development and the fight against corruption, but in fact it is intended to become a platform for uniting the efforts of all political forces opposed to the government. The platform declares its independence from external geopolitical vectors, prioritizing the interests of Moldovan society and the state. At the same time, its participants support a balanced foreign policy aimed at equal cooperation with both the European Union and other countries in the region, including Romania, Russia and Ukraine. The initiators emphasize that their project is an open initiative that can become a beacon for citizens who are tired of political conflicts and strive for stability and development in the country. The platform is still in its early stage, but has already announced plans to join public discussions, initiate bills and, possibly, support candidates in future elections. Within a few days, the Socialists, Communists, and the parties of Vasile Tarlev and Irina Vlah voiced their support for the platform. This seems to indicate a desire to overcome mutual differences for the sake of a common goal, but behind this show of unity, questions remain about the real readiness of these forces to work together. The opposition should recognize that its main problem is the lack of a defined program and a clear vision for the country to put before the electorate. So far, all party strategies are based on a simple negative agenda: “against PAS”, “against Sandu”, “against the EU”, etc. Such narratives may attract part of the protest electorate, but this is absolutely insufficient to dislodge the ruling regime from its current position. The need for a common leader to unite everyone under the For Moldova bloc banners will inevitably arise. There are certainly famous figures among the numerous politicians, but the personal choice will most likely be the result of inter-party bargaining. The key factor for success will be the ability of the chosen person not only to find consensus within the pre-election alliance, but also to inspire broad groups of the population to actively participate in the vote. As Moldova approaches its parliamentary elections, the political landscape is becoming increasingly polarized. On the one hand, there is the pro-European camp, dominated by the Action and Solidarity party, which is not seeking any radical pre-election adjustments and is ignoring ideologically similar projects due to their insignificant ratings. On the other hand, there is the opposition, which is trying to rally its ranks and is backed not only by internal forces but also by the Kremlin. The latter, it seems, is rethinking its tactics in Moldova, mobilizing all available resources to turn the tide, which is clearly in favor of the ruling party. The analysis of the campaign team actions shows that in the case of the launch of the Alternativa bloc, PAS advisers chose a relatively passive watch-and-see strategy. However, when opposition forces unite on the basis of a single platform, the current government will no longer be able to simply watch the unfolding of a new electoral project, as there will be no time for a detailed analysis of its potential success (or failure). Therefore, it is possible that more decisive and, probably, prohibitive measures will be taken if the new coalition is deemed capable of winning over a dangerously large share of voters.