Is Chisinau Planning a Military Operation?

Semyon ALBU, RTA: The pieces of Moldova’s military puzzle are increasingly forming a rather grim picture, one that raises serious concerns about what lies ahead in the near future. It is becoming evident that our country is once again moving toward the epicenter of regional tension, turning into a subject of dangerous speculations and conjectures. Whether there is any truth in these claims is the key question and one that no longer has a simple answer. As I noted in a recent article, the European Union is actively preparing our country for the next phase of the conflict, while the authorities prioritize strengthening the country’s military potential, even amid a collapsing economy. What stood out most was the fast-tracked adoption of legislative acts related to national defense and airspace protection. Among other things, these included provisions for the purchase of air defense systems with several hundred million lei allocated for this purpose. Just yesterday, the Ministry of Defense reported that it had taken certain “necessary” measures to ensure the safety of Moldova’s airspace. The stated reason: repeated violations of the country’s airspace by Russian missiles and drones. Under the new law, these objects can now be shot down. The only remaining question is – with what? The ministry withheld details “for security and confidentiality reasons”, but media reports claimed that Poland had supplied Moldova with 44 Piorun portable anti-aircraft missile systems. These are fairly modern weapons, actively used in the war in Ukraine. They are capable of striking a full range of low-flying targets. Reports suggest that these MANPADS have successfully downed Russian drones, helicopters, and aircraft, including the Su-25 and even the Su-34. Let’s keep that in mind. Now recall recent reports from Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service. According to it, NATO is allegedly preparing to involve our country in a military conflict with the Russian Federation by transforming it into a “forward operating base for the alliance on the eastern flank”. The report cites all the militarization efforts undertaken by the Maia Sandu regime and its Western partners: modernization of airfields and infrastructure, transition to NATO standards, deployment of military instructors. Russian intelligence argues the culmination of this process will be the abandonment of Moldova’s constitutional neutrality and the use of its population as “cannon fodder.” Interestingly, these claims received some support in the Transnistrian region. For example, Oleg Belyakov, co-chair of the Joint Control Commission from Transnistria, called the information “deeply alarming” amid ongoing military exercises and increasing arms shipments to Moldova’s national army. MP Andrei Safonov went even further, claiming that NATO has developed a plan to attack Transnistria. Naturally, the Russians themselves joined in this information campaign. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that the Transnistrian territory features in various plans and strategies of European states, while the Russian Foreign Ministry declared that Moscow is ready to respond to any scenario concerning Transnistria, “including the most unfavorable one”, drawing a parallel between Moldova and Ukraine. We haven’t seen this level of alarmist rhetoric around Moldova for a long time. The most obvious explanation, upcoming elections, may suffice for most observers. But the truth is, the knot of troubling developments around Moldova is tightening, and a breaking point may be just around the corner. First, the war in Ukraine itself is at a crossroads. Once the 50-day deadline given by Donald Trump for reaching a ceasefire expires, a sharp escalation may follow. Peace remains elusive, as neither side is satisfied with the current situation, nor have they lost the capability to keep fighting. A new stage in the Ukraine conflict could bring a fresh set of unconventional military operations aimed at securing a decisive advantage. In that context, eliminating the Russian military presence in Transnistria not only becomes more relevant but also increasingly tempting. Kyiv never completely shelved this idea. In June, The Washington Post reported that the Ukrainian leadership, at one point, seriously considered a plan to strike Russian troops on the left bank of the Dniester using defectors and loyal local groups. There is no reason why that plan couldn’t be revived. The key question is whether official Chisinau is willing to go along. So far, our leadership has exercised restraint. But the electoral cycle is ending, and by September, PAS will likely retain power one way or another. After that, there will be no more restraints. Moreover, Moldova’s dependence on external partners is now so high that refusing any of their requests may simply be impossible. And finding a casus belli against Russia is hardly difficult – the Operational Group of Russian Forces (OGRF) on the left bank of the Dniester has long been illegal. The whole operation could even be framed as a response to public demand, especially since veterans of the 1992 war are already presenting Speaker Igor Grosu with demands for the “unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops”. Recently, a video resurfaced featuring well-known Ukrainian journalist Dmytro Gordon interviewing Prime Minister Dorin Recean earlier this year. Off-camera, Gordon allegedly suggested that Recean officially request Kyiv to enter Transnistrian territory to “clean everything up”, “kick out the Russian soldiers”, and seize the weapons depots in Cobasna. According to the video, Recean replied that in that case, Vladimir Putin had promised to bomb Chisinau. If that conversation did take place, it suggests that up until now, our leadership has been deterred from military action solely by the fear of Russian retaliation. And indeed, Russia’s current capabilities, producing thousands of missiles and drones per year and capable of launching mass drone strikes with 600–700 units at a time, are quite intimidating for a But now, it seems, we have the ability not only to track targets in Moldovan airspace but also to shoot them down. That fundamentally changes the strategic equation and could serve as a compelling argument for our partners to persuade Chisinau to embark on a military adventure. Fortunately for them, they wouldn’t require much from us: just official permission for Kyiv to enter the left bank, some cooperation in disbanding or disarming local armed groups, and the willingness to endure a few “retaliatory strikes”, with the understanding that Ukraine and Romania would likely help deflect them. In black and white, it may all seem tempting and not too frightening, not to mention the possibility that we simply may be given no choice. The destruction of national sovereignty is never without consequences, and all key decisions about our fate have long been made in Western capitals. One wants to believe this is merely a hypothetical scenario that will never materialize. But the clouds over the entire region have grown far too dark for us to emerge unscathed from the coming “storm”.