Ionita: Reducing Trade Deficit Should Be a Strategic Goal of Moldova

Economist Veaceslav Ionita drew attention to the sharp contrast between the course of the world’s largest economies and the increasingly deep vulnerabilities of the Moldovan economy. According to the analyzed data, in recent years, the quarterly trade deficit of the United States has ranged from $200-280 billion. However, in the fourth quarter of 2025, it dropped sharply to about $70 billion, which means a reduction of almost four times in just one quarter, bani.md reports. By the end of the year, the United States ended 2025 with a trade deficit of about $680 billion. Despite the significant absolute volume, the ratio to the gross domestic product fundamentally changes the picture. If in the period 2020-2022 the US trade deficit was 3.5-3.7% of GDP, then in 2025 it decreased to about 2.2% of GDP. This is the lowest figure in almost 30 years, comparable only to 1997, before the acceleration of globalization and the mass removal of production. According to the economist, this indicates a paradigm shift: the trade deficit is no longer seen as an inevitable cost of globalization, but as an economic and geopolitical problem that needs to be corrected. This change of approach has global implications. Large economies are sending a signal that reducing trade deficits is becoming a strategic goal. France has already started adapting, Germany is following it, and other major countries will follow the same logic, which will lead to fierce competition for the balance of foreign trade. Against this background, the comparison with Moldova, according to the analyst, is “painful”. In 2025, Moldova’s trade deficit exceeded 30% of GDP. Even considering that small economies usually have higher deficits, such a level can no longer be considered just a structural imbalance – it is a serious vulnerability. In relative terms, Moldova operates with a deficit almost 15 times higher than that which is considered a historic achievement for the United States. Veaceslav Ionita emphasizes that Moldova does not have the tools of the United States – it does not have a global reserve currency, a huge domestic market or the ability to influence the rules of world trade. “However, the American case is not about tools, but about direction,” the economist notes. “In a world where large economies are aggressively reducing trade deficits, Moldova risks remaining extremely vulnerable to currency, financial and social risks,” Ionita notes.