Vladimir Rotar The United States saw the threat of a Russian landing in Moldova and is preparing a “symmetrical response” US experts fear Russian invasion of Moldova This month, the influential RAND research center, working on orders from the US government, published a report on the Black Sea security strategy. The document was prepared for the US armed forces in Europe and is actually about deterrence of Russia in the Black Sea region. Thus, the authors of the report are concerned about the growing power of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea. In their opinion, NATO’s forward presence in the region is “quite limited”, and the size of the Alliance group does not correspond to the needs “of a credible deterrence” of Russia. It is claimed that Moscow’s actions pose a direct threat to all Black Sea countries, including Moldova. The report mentions the RM several times. It is noted that Russia is actively “undermining Moldova’s sovereignty” through propaganda from Russian-language channels, the corruption of political leaders, and the occupation of Transnistria. According to RAND experts, the Russian group in the Moldovan left bank actually protects the separatist authorities and prevents the resolution of the conflict between Chisinau and Tiraspol. But most of all analysts are concerned about the build-up of the military group in Crimea, which increases Russia’s strategic capabilities – primarily for the transfer of troops within the region. RAND seriously believes that Russian naval vessels can use the Moldovan port of Giurgiulesti for landing and further breakthrough in Transnistria. The US is moving troops to Europe The reflections of American experts about Russia’s invasion of Moldova seem absolutely absurd, especially now, in the situation of warming relations between Chisinau and Moscow. But the US has good reasons to intimidate Moldova with Russian landings. Washington has long shown great interest in the Black Sea, where Russia’s position has noticeably strengthened after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The White House is looking for ways to give a symmetrical response: for example, sea patrols by NATO ships have already been significantly increased. But this is obviously not enough, and allies in the North Atlantic Alliance are in no hurry to respond to the calls of the American administration to strengthen the Black Sea perimeter. A key NATO member in the region, Turkey, contributes to the problem since the relationship between the United States and Turkey has recently noticeably cooled. Therefore, Washington is actively ‘stoking’ the factor of the Russian threat and personally sets the pace. The largest over the past 25 years shift of American troops to Europe is planned for the next year. To participate in the Defender 2020, more than 20 thousand soldiers, along with thousands of military equipment and weapons will arrive on the continent. 14 airfields and seaports in 8 countries will be used for their unloading. Interestingly, one of them is Georgia, which is not formally a member of the Alliance. However, it has long cooperated with NATO and, in addition, has recently had strained relations with Russia and friction on the borders with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Therefore, the choice of Georgia to land forces can probably be seen as a form of support for its partner in the region. However, there may be other goals. Experts do not rule out that not all American soldiers will go home after the exercises. Some may stay in the same Georgia under the pretext of protection from external threats. This will be all the more useful, because previously the Georgian authorities refused to place a US military base in the country. A similar scenario can be used in Moldova. The US clearly did not ignore the strengthening of Russian influence in Moldova, including military one. Recall that for the first time in many years, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Chisinau, who discussed military cooperation between the two countries and put forward an initiative on the disposal of ammunition in depots in unrecognized Transnistria. To do this, Russia plans to send its military specialists to Moldova. Judging by the terms announced in the Russian Foreign Ministry, they will stay there for a long time. Moreover, given the intentions to destroy ammunition on the ground, additional equipment and people will certainly be required, which will also be moved to Moldova. To do this, Moscow can use the restored airfield in Tiraspol, which will receive Russian transport aircraft. The next step in Atlantic integration Despite its modest military potential, Moldova is increasingly attracting the attention of geopolitical players because of its proximity to the main theater of the potential conflict – Ukraine. Russia is making strong moves both in the Black Sea region and directly in Moldova, and the US needs to respond to them. And since the new Moldovan authorities themselves do not whip up the ‘Russian threat’, as in the days of Plahotniuc, the US now does it for them. Including through absurd, at first glance, reports by RAND. As for Chisinau itself, it does not yet have a clear position on cooperation with NATO. On the one hand, there is the ACUM bloc, which clearly does not prevent it, but also does not consider it necessary to promote it too much, so as not to damage relations with Moscow. The second half of the ruling coalition represented by Igor Dodon and the socialists in general promotes the idea of a neutral Moldova. The President recently spoke about this in a personal conversation with the Secretary General of the Alliance. However, it seems that little depends on the Moldovan authorities here. In the end, under the new government, contacts between Moldova and NATO take place as planned. So, in early October, a group of experts of the organization paid a visit to Moldova, holding a series of meetings to discuss the reform of the Moldovan armed forces. Also recently the country was visited by British instructors for the training of officers of the National Army. The NATO Liaison Office in the Moldovan capital is still operating. The creation of a military base may be the next logical step in the Atlantic integration of Moldova. This can be implemented through regular joint military exercises, the participants of which will stay longer in Moldova under the pretext of the ‘Russian threat’ and tense relations with the administration of the left bank. Chisinau’s objections (if any) will not become a serious obstacle. Do not forget that there, in the United States, is still the former ‘master of Moldova’ Vlad Plahotniuc, who, in case of obstinacy of the new authorities, can always be thrown back into Moldovan politics with guarantees of immunity or, if Chisinau is ready to cooperate, on the contrary, to extradite to the Moldovan judiciary. The militarization of the Black Sea is becoming a real problem that threatens all countries in the region. Moldova, unfortunately, does not stand aside, turning into another point of collision of world powers. Perhaps Chisinau could have avoided the most negative scenarios (one of which has already happened in neighboring Ukraine) if it had taken a firm position on the foreign policy status of the republic. But this can hardly be expected while the new government is busy with ‘interspecies’ infighting.

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