Opinion: Maia Sandu May Outshine Igor Dodon on the Russian Track

According to RTA regular expert Sergey Cheban, the Kremlin may regard the Moldovan Prime Minister’s straightforwardness as a guarantee of Moldova’s predictable foreign policy. Even if this foreign policy does not coincide with the interests of Moscow. Sergey Cheban believes that until 2019 Igor Dodon as an informal, but the actual leader of the PSRM literally monopolized contacts in the Russian direction. “Many factors contributed to this. First, once the PSRM was considered almost as a ‘healthy’ alternative to the corrupt Voronin’s Party of Communists that broke up with Moscow. Second, Igor Dodon purposefully built the image of a pro-Moldova politician that stands for equal dialogue with all, and thus with Moscow. Third, Moscow simply did not have much choice. The Kremlin did not plan to get closer to the right wing of the Moldovan policy, which traditionally demonstrated an extremely clear anti-Russian and pro-Western attitude, and cooperation with Plahotniuc was reasonably considered below its dignity,” the expert notes. “Igor Dodon has always been a kind of ‘springboard’ for Russian policy in the region, at a time when the dialogue between the governments of Moscow and Kyiv, and Chisinau was frozen,” says Cheban. “Nevertheless, we should not assume that the Russian leadership did not understand the danger of such a position. Moscow might be aware that they were taking a big risk, putting only one figure in the Moldovan leadership. By mid-2019, after the far from ideal victory of the PSRM in the parliamentary elections, the Russian leadership decided to ‘diversify assets in Moldova’. Dmitry Kozak’s visit to Chisinau followed, unexpectedly enthusiastically received in the ACUM bloc, and then the overthrow of Plahotniuc. Moscow has seriously strengthened its position by supporting the coalition of socialists with the pro-Western ACUM bloc,” the analyst says. According to Cheban, after the anti-oligarchic revolution in Moldova, the ‘coloring’ of political forces in the country has changed significantly. “Creating a coalition with the socialists, ACUM ceased to be 100% pro-European, and Igor Dodon – the most pro-Russian. Just today we see how this circumstance destroys the usual stereotypes about ‘who is whose friend’,” the expert emphasizes. “In September, Maia Sandu will pay an official visit to Moscow, and this clearly confirms that there is no taboo against her as a politician and one of the leaders of Moldova. Given the fact that Maia Sandu in the years of her political career has not particularly held back on sharp statements to the Kremlin and has earned a reputation as a completely pro-Western and even pro-Romanian politician. Moreover, in a recent interview to TASS Sandu directly said that she intends to discuss in the Russian capital the prospects for the withdrawal of Russia’s military from the territory of unrecognized Transdniestria. However, the Moldovan Prime Minister will certainly be welcomed in the Kremlin,” the author of the RTA is convinced. According to Cheban, Maia Sandu is in fact a predictable partner for Moscow, so Moscow shouldn’t expect a dirty trick from her. “Moscow’s fundamental unwillingness to work with Plahotniuc was due to the fact that the ex-leader of the PDM had no principles: for the sake of his benefits Plahotniuc could be friends with anyone, but with the same ease stabbed former partners in the back. To some extent, this is what killed him – no one in Europe, Russia and the United States needed a man literally preoccupied with personal power and wealth ‘on the bones’ of other people’s interests. In this regard, Sandu is a real gift. She explicitly declares her pro-Western political views and is clearly not going to give them up to please the Kremlin,” Cheban said. “Against this background, Igor Dodon, who endlessly tries to be a compromise leader for all, should think straight about the prospects of his monopoly on contacts with Moscow. Of course, Dodon is trusted much more than Sandu. However, it is she, and not the leader of the socialists, who offers a pragmatic dialogue with Moscow, without geopolitics and on terms of mutual benefit. It seems that Russia has long needed politicians of this kind in the post-Soviet states; moreover, Sandu’s image of a fighter for the sovereign interests of Moldova adds her political points within the country. This can also be a good reason for the Kremlin to continue supporting Sandu, however, without abandoning the ‘bird in the hand’ represented by the pro-presidential Party of Socialists,” says the expert.