Western Diplomacy Engaged Actively in Frozen Conflicts

DUMITRU ASTAHOV The West has thrown significant forces and resources to resolve territorial conflicts in Europe: Serbo-Kosovo relations can be settled this year. Around the Moldovan-Transdniestrian negotiation process increases attention and namely there a serious crisis has lately been outlined. This week, has become noticeable the intensification of international contacts between European diplomats and politicians, who oversee the situation around the settlement of frozen conflicts on the European continent. Such attention may be connected with the desire to “make a breakthrough” in individual problem areas and reach specific final solutions. In a few days, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić is to pay a working visit to Washington. According to the Serbian leader, he is to have a difficult conversation with American partners in the US. He considers, in addition that Serbia may soon face an ultimatum on the Kosovo issue, since Belgrade will be offered a modified version of the solution that was proposed by UN Special Representative Martti Ahtisaari back in 2007. As Vučić himself put it, this will be a kind of “Ahtisaari Plan plus plus”, which will be difficult to accept, but cannot be rejected at the same time. It is believed that stating it, the Serbian leader prepares the public opinion for “difficult historical decisions” and for the fact that the Kosovo issue is entering its decisive phase. Therefore, Belgrade will have to agree and come to terms with the position of the international community, as further perseverance can turn into painful consequences for Serbia. Meanwhile, Pristina is also “preparing” for the Serbian president visit. The main complaint made by the international partners to the Kosovo authorities was the 100% duty on Serbian goods. It quite successfully protected Belgrade from massive pressure, giving certain trump cards in negotiations with Western diplomats. But, apparently, it will be removed in the very near future. At least, the newly made Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, recently announced that he was ready to cancel the barrage measures and replace them with the principle of reciprocity in political, economic and commercial relations with Serbia. That is, for example, to ban Serbian car plates in Kosovo, since Kosovo ones are prohibited in Serbia. It is worth noting, there actively circulates information that the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Slovakia Miroslav Lajčák is planned to be appointed as the EU Special Representative in the negotiations of Belgrade and Pristina and that is not accidental. He has rich experience in difficult conflict areas such as Bosnia and Herzegovina or Transdniestria. As you know, the name of the Slovak diplomat is closely related to the disintegration of Serbia and Montenegro. In 2005-2006, as EU Special Representative, Lajčák played the key role in ensuring Montenegro’s secession through European diplomacy. Throughout his mandate, Miroslav Lajčák was personally involved in all organizational matters and played the role of the main mediator in the negotiations between political forces in Serbia and Montenegro to ensure the smoothest dissolution of the state union. Meanwhile, the current Albanian chairmanship of the OSCE went on a wide visit to Moscow this week. On February 25, Thomas Mayr-Harting, the Albanian Special Representative for the Transdniestrian settlement, was received by Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko to discuss the situation in the Moldovan-Transdniestrian negotiation process and the organization’s plans for this year. A day later, during the meeting of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and the Prime Minister of Albania, currently the OSCE Chairman-in-Office already discussed in detail the Serbian-Kosovo settlement. Somewhat unexpectedly, the head of Russian diplomacy, despite the traditional references to UN Security Council resolution No. 1244, said that Moscow was still ready to accept any decision that would be reached between Belgrade and Pristina. One can easily see in this phrase Kremlin’s softening position on the Kosovo issue, showing its readiness, at a certain point, to “close the eyes” as to the parameters for resolving the conflict enshrined in the resolution and vote for an alternative to the UN solution. At the same time, the head of the Eastern Europe department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the FRG Tobias Tunkel paid a working visit to Chisinau and Tiraspol and got acquainted with the current situation in the Transdniestrian settlement. Monosyllabic press releases do not give an accurate understanding of what the representative of German diplomacy was discussing on the banks of the Dniester, however, this visit, apparently, became part of a wide diplomatic marathon. There is reason to believe that the Euro-Atlantic diplomatic machine, in addition to general preparation and organizational planning for the current year, is working on some serious breakthrough decisions. This is especially noticeable in the Kosovo direction but sharp progress is very likely in other problem areas such as Transdniestria and Donbass. Therefore, it should not be ruled out that shuttle visits can mean the start of the process to coordinate common approaches with the main international players, on which, first of all, the nature of the UN Security Council vote on the final models for resolving frozen conflicts in Europe depends.