“Constitutional” Coup in Moldova

Vladimir ROTAR Who has won and who has lost from the new changes in the Constitutional Court of Moldova Enthusiasm around Russian credit predictably revived the country's social and political life. As it turned out, the socialists rejoiced ahead of time when they decided that the long-running epic with Russia's infrastructure loan had finally ended, allowing for skimming the cream off. Making a loan agreement pass through bureaucratic procedures amid counteraction from the opposition and the forces behind them will be no less trivial task than negotiations with Russian partners. And the socialists have already suffered the first losses on this path. As you know, yesterday the loan agreement with the Russian Federation was ratified by the country's parliament, despite a flurry of accusations from the opposition (quite unreasonable if you carefully read the text of the agreement). However, later the Constitutional Court suspended its action due to the appeal of deputies from the parliamentary group “ProMoldova”, who asked to check the document's “constitutionality”. It is expected that the Court's final decision will be adopted on Tuesday. However, another landmark event has occurred ahead of this - the “dethroning” of the Court's chairman Vladimir Turcan, and the appointment of Domnica Manole to this position. Socialists and the president personally know firsthand how important it is to have a loyal Constitutional Court in the realities of Moldavian political life. Igor Dodon repeatedly incurred image costs when the Constitutional Court in an unceremonious manner “turned off” the head of state during the time of the Plahotniuc regime. Therefore, one of the most important and significant deoligarchization elements has become the seizure of control over this judicial body and the renewal of its composition. In the summer, the court was headed by Vladimir Turcan, who had previously been the PSRM member and was rightfully considered a Dodon's man. Until yesterday, many experts justly believed that the head of state had a strong influence on court decisions, moreover, the Moldovan leader himself was not shy to demonstrate it. A certain bravado with this influence finally failed: the story of a call to Turkan on a package of anti-crisis measures was a serious tactical error, which ultimately led to yesterday's reshuffle. However, the roots of the events, obviously, go much deeper and lead directly to the office of the Democratic Party. Since its return to power, the PDM has consistently strengthened its position at all levels of the management system. At the same time, party leaders are cautious enough in their actions and statements, making every effort to ensure that current cooperation with the socialists does not harm the strategic goal - to return the status of the West's main supporting force in Moldova. Therefore, when the coalition was formed, the leadership of the Democratic Party clearly identified the basic priorities: the European path and pro-Western foreign policy, good relations with Romania and Ukraine, the territorial integrity of the country, the Romanian language and history.   In general, the PDM acts quite passively, trying to distance itself as much as possible from any subjects that can one way or another harm the party's interests. The role of the shooting group was assumed by the ProMoldova group. Using the status of a dissident non-aligned force, it is not constrained by the frames of “coalition” decency and behaves more than freely. Thus, while the main party remains in relative safety, being practically not involved in the Moldovan cross-branch wrangles, it is the Candu group that turns into the main battering ram against everyone. It should be noted that, despite the alleged split in the PDM, both its components continue to operate in the same direction, conducting targeted attacks on both flanks of the Moldovan political field. Recently, the pro-European opposition was found under attack being found responsible for the failed package of measures to support the public and business during the coronavirus epidemic. Now, a much more serious blow has already been delivered at the coalition partners, though through their “proxy” in the form of the Candu group. The fact that the Democrats precisely organized the special operation in the Constitutional Court also emphasizes the origin of the “customer”, which was made by the US Embassy and practically without hiding this fact. Yesterday, Derek Hogan met with Igor Dodon emphasizing among other things “that any help should be in line with the protection of the sovereignty of the Republic of Moldova” (quote from the Embassy press release an what typical, they preferred to remain silent in the presidential message about this aspect of the meeting). The loss of the Constitutional Court is a sensitive defeat for the socialists whose power already began to rapidly decline after the formation of the coalition with the PDM. First, the democrats were assigned key posts in the government, now the Constitutional Court and a little later under the terms of the agreement with the PSRM they got the post of prime minister or speaker. At the same time, the many-moved game in the Constitutional Court was performed quite subtly because now the post of chairman is occupied by Domnica Manole - at first glance, “flesh from flesh” a man of pro-European opposition, who participated in the 2019 parliamentary elections from the ACUM bloc. Nevertheless, according to some reports, Manole is a cousin of Dumitru Diacov and in Moldova the importance of family ties can never be downplayed. The socialists reacted nervously to yesterday’s events, starting to paint the terrible future of Moldova without the Russian loan. The president, on the one hand, joked that he could no longer be suspected of controlling the Constitutional Court but on the other, he accused opponents of politicizing the court’s activities and threatened with retaliatory measures. It is very likely that the Moldovan leader’s threats were addressed not only to the opposition but also to the current "partners." However, the socialists have nothing to hide. The main weapon of the PSRM is early elections. But everyone perfectly understands that this is an extreme option that now one can only take if a great despair. The president is right that many of the current forces in parliament will not go through the new ballot sieve. But this is for the moment. The announcement of early elections will surely destroy the ruling coalition and lead to a new period of political instability. Taking responsibility for this during pandemic and severe economic crisis is suicidal for any political force, even as popular as the Socialist Party. Therefore, in fact, all the bullets in the PSRM weapons against their competitors are idle. Reshuffle in the Constitutional Court will, of course still play an important role in further political struggle. So far, one thing is clear - yesterday we observed another step towards curtailing the rule of the socialists and at the same time strengthening the influence of the Democratic Party. With the support of Washington, PDM is confidently winning back its lost positions in June 2019 and is preparing to once again take center stage in Moldovan politics after the presidential election - with or without socialists.