How Dodon’s Withdrawal from the Presidential Race Impacts the Electoral Context

Sergiu CEBAN

Sociological polls show the first changes in the pre-election landscape and, especially, in the perspectives of major contenders

Despite the summer vacation period, the presidential election keeps the political life of the country alive. The unpredictability of scenarios both before and after the voting forces the election headquarters of the favorites to work non-stop. As expected, Igor Dodon’s withdrawal from the race noticeably shakes up the old scheme of things in the group of leaders. In this regard, the results of sociological surveys are of great interest, which will best show the changes in the overall picture of citizens’ preferences. It is no secret that such surveys are conducted by the candidates’ teams on a regular basis, but only a part of them is revealed to the general public. Last week’s published survey data from a well-known company shows the first shifts in the pre-election landscape, providing some food for thought. In addition, perhaps for the first time, we can also see signs of the underlying political restructuring that is taking place in society during the big three-year electoral cycle. The main point is that citizens see a significant deterioration of the economic situation and down-vote political elites, regardless of their geopolitical coloring. Despite all the attempts of the authorities to exploit the rapprochement with the European Union, everyone is well aware that this is mostly the merit of Ukraine, not of our rulers. At the same time, about 40% still do not understand what the autumn referendum will be about, and 58% believe that it should be held separately from the elections of the head of state. This shows that primitive political technologies no longer work in Moldova. 75% of respondents stated that the ruling party is corrupt and that Maia Sandu is directly responsible for its rule and the failed justice reform. In addition, a significant number of citizens are afraid of the current government. Thus, no matter how much Ms. Sandu is distanced from PAS and what is happening inside the country, ordinary voters see them as one. No less important, more than half of the respondents expect that the presidential election will be unfair and will be held with significant violations. Therefore, it is reasonable that 60% of respondents consider the nomination of Maia Sandu for a second presidential term unjustified. At the same time, 77% think that the vote will be held in two rounds, with divided opinions on whether Sandu or the opposition candidate will win. This explains why the PAS is betting so much on the autumn elections, and what threatens the party in case the incumbent is defeated. By and large, during the eight years of its existence, PAS has failed to nurture either a group or at least a few sane leaders who could raise the fallen banner and lead the party to the parliamentary elections. Consequently, Sandu’s potential failure will automatically lead to the destruction of the entire party vertical and probable disintegration into several political projects. And, probably, the main trend is that more than half of the population wants Moldova to be transformed into a presidential republic. Thus, the citizens of the country down-vote the political system of the last decades for the second time, as well as to the parliamentary form of collective government of the state. It seems that there is a growing desire for a “strongman” in the Moldovan society and readiness to accept a regime with elements of authoritarianism and autocracy, which currently demonstrate greater resistance to internal and external challenges. As to the first results of Alexandr Stoianoglo, we cannot state a complete transfer of Igor Dodon’s and PSRM’s personal rating into his bank. It is noticeable that part of the left-wing and pro-Russian voters are taking a wait-and-see attitude in order to take a closer look at the ex-prosecutor’s candidacy. At the same time, some citizens, who were previously considered undecided, are slowly forming their choice, due to which some favorites of the election race have significantly improved their results. Dodon’s withdrawal, for instance, benefited Renato Usatii’s ratings. Nevertheless, as the experience of 2020 shows, closer to the elections, voters try to be more pragmatic and favor more realistic choices, not daring to experiment with populists. This time, however, it seems that the leader of Our Party does not set big goals for himself, but aims at maximum political capitalization in order to ensure that his party project is guaranteed an entry into the next parliament. Thus, the main struggle for the second place in the first round will be between Stoianoglo and Usatii, who are neck and neck, yet well behind Sandu. Therefore, in the remaining time they should formulate a clear message and convincing arguments to try to win over voters. So far, both candidates have been content with the support of the left-wing electorate, while in order to succeed they will have to attract a very specific centrist electorate, as well as convince the hesitant and doubtful social groups that are still willing to consider an adequate alternative to Sandu. Exactly this part of the citizens saw Ion Ceban as their favorite, praising him highly as the capital’s mayor. But after his politically weak refusal to take part in the presidential race, Ceban demobilized his niche electorate and, to all appearances, even began to lose the prospect of getting a passing grade in 2025. The MAN leader’s entourage has already realized the fallacy of this maneuver and is trying to bring the Chisinau mayor back into the electoral context. This could serve as the explanation to the recent warnings by Ceban that he might reconsider his decision not to run if the authorities continue to pressurize him. So far, Maia Sandu still holds major advantages over her rivals because she offers a clear pro-European narrative. All the others are currently unable to present a big idea that could inspire people. Trying to build a campaign solely on protest sentiment, as well as criticizing Sandu and the ruling party, is still a weak and most likely losing strategy. As a result, the incumbent president has the highest re-election chances. But it is still very early to put an end to it, and it is also erroneous to think that the balance of power is no longer fundamentally influenced by internal or external factors. Even within the range of statistical error, nevertheless, Maia Sandu’s rating has already decreased by several percentage points. In order to prevent further decline, her PR managers have shielded their client from public debates. This suggests that the president’s entourage is quite reasonably concerned about the so-called “Biden effect”, when, due to a sequence of problems and scandals, Sandu will not be able to withstand the pressure and will withdraw from the race, wishing to remain in the history of Moldova as a politician who achieved the status of a European candidate and the opening of negotiations with the EU.