Who Will Be Responsible for the Failed EU Referendum?

Victor ENI

The authorities made a big mistake when they decided to exploit the referendum on EU accession as an electoral weapon. In case of its failure, the ruling party and Maia Sandu personally should be held accountable for such a strong defamation of the country’s European path

For more than half a year, Maia Sandu has been travelling around the country and abroad with her pro-European referendum. Addressing target groups, she is trying to achieve maximum mobilization of the Moldovan electorate, which, in her opinion, is wholeheartedly devoted to the European integration ideals and therefore must necessarily “favor” the constitutional change in October. The only thing Sandu has to do is to promote herself as a presidential candidate and secure re-election for a second term. Prominent representatives of civil society and loyal media outlets have been assigned to fulfill this task. At the same time, everyone related to the pro-European vector is forced to play along with the head of state’s electoral headquarters and participate in promoting the referendum, even though they may be rather unhappy with the idea of keeping Sandu in office. In fact, many pro-European forces and opinion leaders found themselves in a kind of trap, having to choose between two lame options – either support the plebiscite and thus Maia Sandu, or oppose it, risking accusations of working for the Kremlin. Nevertheless, given the ingenuity of the electoral strategy, things do not seem to be going smoothly for Sandu’s advisers. For some reason, after six months of active campaigning, things haven’t changed at all. People are not very enthusiastic about the European integration “successes” of the authorities, and even less so about the authorities themselves. Even open sociological surveys show a rather moderate advantage of the European idea over others. And closed polls reveal an even more dismal picture, which is unlikely to change significantly over the next two and a half months. This state of affairs causes deep frustration in Maia Sandu’s entourage, prompting them to act recklessly and emotionally. There is no longer any attempt to (re)persuade people with positive arguments, but instead outright pressure and blackmail are involved. There is no other way to describe it when you hear court speakers saying that in case of the referendum failure Moldova will face another wave of population exodus, as well as slowing down the speed of negotiations with Brussels for decades. As if people will stop leaving the country even if Sandu is elected for a third term. The statements of the agriculture minister Vladimir Bolea can be used to confirm the reigning confusion and disappointment in the heads of not only the political technologists, but even the government members. It seems as if he was holding on to the last, but nevertheless started to lose his temper. Last week, talking to the heads of district agricultural departments, the official heard farmers demanding hectare subsidies from the state. In response, Bolea said that the country does not have such money and suggested mass support for the idea of joining the EU in a referendum to open up the possibility of receiving European subsidies. A brilliant example of one solution for all problems from the relevant minister. Due to the dreary state of despair and weakness, such statements are likely to appear every week. We cannot rule out that soon the rhetoric of the pro-governmental officials will intensify, as will their desire to press public opinion and to place the entire responsibility for the possible referendum fiasco solely on the citizens. The grievances of these well-fed experts and analysts are understandable: their personal prospects are at stake, not just further integration into the European Union, since they are unlikely to enter the team of new rulers. And there are indeed enough reasons to worry. On a national scale, society and political forces are divided into several groups that have polarized views on the upcoming referendum. And the very fact that there is no unity in the state around the path to Europe suggests that initially this whole idea of “popular approval” was semi-adventurous. It now has every chance of turning into a major failure with corresponding domestic and foreign policy effects. Opposition forces disapprove of the referendum: either because of their Eurosceptic views (pro-Russian parties) or because of its use as an electoral booster for Maia Sandu’s election campaign (pro-European parties). Each group presents a different set of arguments, ranging from the untimeliness of such an event to the illegality and illegitimacy when only 33% of the total number of voters who cast a ballot is sufficient for validation. At the same time, no one has any clearly formulated strategy to counteract the attempts of the authorities to pass amendments to the Constitution through a plebiscite. In general, opposition leaders act alone, without initiative and sometimes quite inconsistently, adjusting their rhetoric to the socio-political background and the mood of the electorate. It is worth noting that one of the key factors that was considered by Maia Sandu’s staff as a tool to methodically warm up the citizens’ interest in the referendum was its geopolitical aspect. But the situation changed after Igor Dodon’s withdrawal from the electoral race which was based on the concept of Moldova’s “historical and momentous geopolitical choice”. As a result, the electorate no longer sees any electoral value or a fundamental turning point for the country’s future in the October vote. With the reduced acuteness of the geopolitical choice, citizens will inevitably focus on the socio-economic record when they go to the polls on 20 October. The growing risks of a poor outcome make some experts seriously discuss the scenario of abandoning the constitutional referendum in order not to compromise the idea of a European Moldova. If we draw a parallel, for example, with Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the election race, which seemed so improbable back in June, it did not deal a crushing blow to the US Democratic Party, but just the opposite. However, in our case, such a decision would surely be a fatal step for Maia Sandu and PAS, so the probability of cancellation or postponement is close to zero. Obviously, it was a major blunder of the president’s entourage, including her foreign advisers, who underestimated how unpredictable Moldovans can be. Except for the political elites and a certain part of the business community that has got used to European markets, the majority of people have not really felt the help from the European Union to consider it an unequivocal choice. Be that as it may, citizens should not be pressurized and their emotions should not be manipulated just because some experts have miscalculated and are very anxious about their future. The referendum will take place one way or another, and even if it does not fail, the results will be extremely discouraging. This means that the main damage will be caused to the pro-European concept of Moldova’s development. At the same time, the current regime and its lackeys should bear all the responsibility for its discrediting.