Is Sandu’s Entourage Prepping a “Plan B” in Case of Defeat?

Sergiu CEBAN

The presidential race is turning increasingly unpredictable and risks going completely beyond the planned scenario of the incumbent president’s headquarters

Our voter has not yet got a feel that the presidential race has been officially launched. Public politicians and MPs decided to take a good rest and rejuvenate before the autumn battles, and most candidates by inertia are not hurrying up their campaign activity. Therefore, experts no longer expect any sudden turns or unforeseen situations before the end of summer. Even the regular congress of the Victory bloc held in Moscow did not become something extraordinary failing to arouse much interest among the public. As before, the election headquarters of Maia Sandu, as well as their colleagues from the opposition, are trying to tackle a number of electoral dilemmas, the solution to which has not yet been found. We cannot rule out that everyone will enter the final stage without major changes, and the fate of the presidential chair will be determined in the second round in a fair fight. However, judging by restlessness of the presidential strategists, such unpredictability and uncertainty in voting results is extremely frightening for them. Indeed, Sadu’s office has not ensured an increase in her rating. To retain at least what she has, the president is carefully protected from any adverse factors. This is apparently the reason why Sandu’s participation in public debates is out of the question, and the voter will not be able to find out her views on certain pressing topics. And we are all invited to vote for a colorful media image who delivers prepared speeches written by political consultants. As for the rival flank, the oppositional electoral groups were so carefully dispersed that even the main favorites with good chances of getting into the second round do not have clear confidence in their prospects. It is possible that such a deliberate scattering of voters is someone’s tactic to further complicate the task of Maia Sandu’s entourage. After all, preparing five different strategies for each of the potential rivals in the second round is, to put it mildly, a challenging task. In order to somehow boost the ratings of the head of state and instill deeper conviction in the population that Maia Sandu has no alternative, European leaders will actively visit Moldova in the coming weeks and months for vivid joint photos and promising statements about new aid packages. As they say, if it is impossible to offer the voter a specific encouraging reform program, then you can use the old proven methods with PR integrations of the EU leaders. For instance, in a couple of days, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit Moldova, and on Independence Day the presidents of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will “pamper” us with their presence. It is reported that the leaders of the Baltic Tigers will arrive to demonstrate solidarity and support for Moldova’s European path. Well, our citizens will at least learn who are the current leaders of these influential EU countries. Meanwhile, the closer the presidential elections, the more active the debates about the fate of the ruling party become, whose chances of repeating the result of 2021 are frankly much smaller than those of Maia Sandu to be re-elected for a second term. After all, PAS is a reliable rear and a “tool box” for Sandu. So the party’s probable loss of its current monopoly position may put the head of state in a very poor position, like that of Dodon. In fact, according to most experts, preparations for the 2025 parliamentary campaign began in the president’s office ahead of time, almost immediately after last year’s local elections. And we have already seen a whole range of political projects, such as “Impreuna/Together”, “For Europe pact”, etc. But, apparently, something went wrong as usual – political production has collapsed, the blocs are disintegrating, and Maia Sandu’s advisers are hastily changing their strategy. The main reason for this, as it seems, is the continuing (and perhaps even increasing) high risk of Sandu’s defeat in the second round. As a matter of fact, all the project efforts of the first six months of the year were designed to ensure her victory, but by the mid-year one has felt a persistent smell of defeat in the air. The original plan started to fall apart, and therefore, those in the corridors of power began to allow for a possible unpleasant outcome of the autumn elections, while still piously believing in the victory of the incumbent president. In order to preserve Maia Sandu and a group of “successful leaders” in Moldovan politics, narratives about the impending launch of new pro-European political formations began to pop up in the information field. These projects should serve the following purposes – distancing the head of state from PAS which itself is losing ratings and dragging down those of Sandu; absorbing the disappointed pro-European voter; entering parliament and forming as many pro-Western factions as possible. Former foreign minister Nicu Popescu, the frontman of the Citizens for Europe political movement, is among the new potential leaders. Besides him, there is a rumor that another structure will be headed by energy minister Viсtor Parlicov. Despite the fact that the expert community is invited to actively comment on these rumors, we still think that such a leak is intentional. It may well be that the legend about Popescu and Parlicov is just a decoy, and real alternative projects will be nurtured and promoted in completely different ways and, most likely, on the central segment of the political spectrum. Moreover, these parties should not be associated with the current regime in any way but rather offer a balanced domestic/foreign policy message, which is increasingly in demand among voters. We shall remind you that at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the main party-building intrigue revolved around the possible integration of Ion Ceban’s political formation with Moldovan and Romanian Social Democrats, who were supposed to enter the political system of Moldova “without a hitch”. As a result, the alliance was never born, and the threat for the PAS was neutralized. Most likely, not only the ruling party had the finger in this pie, but also external partners who have a decisive influence on politicians in Bucharest. In general, there are obvious signs that there will be no linear scenario in the current presidential elections. Apparently, Sandu’s entourage is not expecting it either, so they are expanding the stock of possible options and a package of tasks that need to be urgently solved in the time remaining before the vote. There is actually a lot of work, but so far preparations are underway for a conditional “Plan B” in case of Sandu’s defeat in the second round. However, in the coming months, domestic and international life may turn out to be so intense and entail such unexpected turns that it will be necessary to prepare a Plan B, Plan D and so on.