Moldova’s Energy Reform: Is Success Guaranteed?

After the heating season, the country’s energy sector has entered a phase of radical transformation. The adopted laws, new administrative reforms, and international agreements outline a long-term course to minimize reliance on Russian resources, deepen ties with Romania, and align with the European Union’s energy framework

A milestone on this path was reached at the end of April, when the parliament approved in the first reading a series of legislative initiatives that radically change the country’s energy policy. These involve amendments to the regulatory framework in the fields of electricity and natural gas, aimed at integrating Moldova’s energy networks with those of the EU, as well as accelerating strategic projects in this area. Significant changes are also taking place in the sector’s governance. In particular, the Ministry of Energy has completed the selection process for appointing new members to the Board of Directors of the state-owned enterprise Moldelectrica. One of the winners was Romanian citizen Corina Popescu, who previously served as CEO of Electrica SA, the largest electricity provider in the neighboring country. This personnel decision points to the further involvement of Romanian management in overseeing key assets of our country. Meanwhile, starting August 1, Energocom will become the sole supplier and billing operator for natural gas for all households in Moldova. This decision was made by the National Agency for Energy Regulation (ANRE) for a period of three years. Prime Minister Dorin Recean emphasized that this step signifies the transfer of gas infrastructure under state control. This fundamental decision undeniably carries political and electoral overtones. However, to be fair, it became possible after Gazprom had ceased gas deliveries to Moldova as of January 1, effectively freeing Chisinau’s hands to swiftly sever energy ties with Russia. Therefore, the acceleration of reforms and the appointment of Energocom as the main supplier in place of Moldovagaz represent a logical step in redirecting Moldova’s energy development strategy. Nevertheless, even under the influence of political factors, the process of replacing the supplier will not be swift. Moldovagaz will continue to serve customers for at least another year while Energocom establishes its own consumer support system. As for the gas distribution companies that remain on Moldovagaz’s balance sheet, they will continue to provide services on behalf of Energocom for the time being. However, the overall trajectory of the authorities’ actions is fairly clear – the marginalization of Moldovagaz and the establishment of full control over energy assets, which will be gradually integrated into the Romanian and EU energy sectors under the close supervision of Romanian management. It is quite possible that the Moldovan market is already undergoing redistribution. It is no coincidence that Romgaz, the largest producer and storage operator of natural gas in Romania, has expressed its intention to cover up to 30% of Moldova’s gas needs. To this end, the company plans to establish a trading subsidiary in Moldova. Meanwhile, Minister of Energy Dorin Junghietu, discussing final tariffs for consumers, noted that it would be unwise to base pricing on TTF exchange rates, as gas transportation from the Netherlands is too costly. Instead, he suggested relying on prices from Romanian exchanges, where nearly all the volumes required by Moldova can be sourced. The price at which gas will be purchased this year and how this will affect consumer tariffs is expected to become one of the key uncertainties of the upcoming election campaign. For now, the public remains in the dark, as the authorities cite commercial confidentiality surrounding these procurement deals, thus, already raising concerns. Additionally, in preparation for the 2025–2026 winter season, the government has approved an increase in the minimum strategic gas reserve from 47.1 to 50 million cubic meters. This volume corresponds to approximately ten days of consumption and is to be stored exclusively for emergency situations, with the authority to release it resting solely with the Emergency Situations Commission. In other words, the government does not rule out the possibility that the upcoming winter may bring further unpleasant surprises, especially on the left bank of the Dniester. One of the key elements of Moldova’s energy dependence on Russia remains the Moldavskaya GRES power plant. However, according to the government’s plans, its influence is expected to gradually diminish. Phasing the plant out of the equation has become almost inevitable following political signals from Brussels in the context of the start of EU accession negotiations. Moreover, a definitive halt to electricity imports from MGRES is being considered a strategic objective, especially in the run-up to elections, where the issue of energy independence from Moscow is likely to become one of the ruling party’s main campaign slogans. In this context, the completion of the high-voltage power line project between Vulcanesti and Chisinau, which was recently visited by Maia Sandu, takes on special significance for the PAS government. According to available information, 120 kilometers of the line have already been built, with 163 towers and 373 foundations installed. Meanwhile, work continues at the Chisinau substation, where metal structures are being assembled to support the installation of electrical equipment. The commissioning of this line, expected by the end of 2025, is projected to ensure a stable and independent energy supply, without relying on the MGRES. At the same time, one of the functional roles of the MGRES is to provide balancing (maneuverable) electricity. Consequently, phasing out the station’s capacities will necessitate alternative technical solutions. To address this, the government plans to include battery energy storage systems with long-duration storage capabilities in upcoming tenders for power plant construction. Naturally, this type of solution cannot quickly resolve the issue of balancing electricity supply. Therefore, in the near future, it is likely that Moldova will rely on Ukraine to cover peak deficits at an affordable price, especially since Ukraine tends to experience electricity surpluses during the summer months. To that end, it is likely that Moldelectrica and Ukrenergo signed a package of documents paving the way for the launch of intraday electricity auctions at the Moldova-Ukraine border. These auctions will allow producers to buy and sell electricity nearly in real-time. Moreover, this will primarily encourage Moldovan businesses to invest in battery storage systems to mitigate price fluctuations and manage seasonal peak consumption. A series of events in recent weeks has demonstrated that Moldova’s energy sector continues along the path of profound restructuring. At the same time, it is worth reiterating that a clear course has been set: rejecting Russian resources, restoring state control over key assets, and rapidly integrating into the EU energy infrastructure with the support of Romania and Ukraine. Nevertheless, the process is far from complete, as it will require not only substantial resources and expertise, but also a relatively stable regional environment, given Moldova’s interconnections with neighboring countries. Forecasting the development paths of the energy system in the coming years is extremely difficult and requires consideration of numerous factors and variables. Today’s reality has undergone significant changes due to reforms initiated by PAS, which have already passed several critical thresholds, making a return to the previous state nearly impossible. However, achieving the stated goals is by no means guaranteed, as the future energy configuration may be heavily influenced by both internal and external factors. Internal factors include institutional and political changes, as well as socio-economic developments in the region. External ones, in turn, encompass global trends in energy policy, climate change, geopolitical dynamics, and international economic conditions, which, notably, are rather unpredictable.