“Moldova on High Alert”

Anton ŠVEC

The country is plunging into a debt trap, facing record levels of poverty, a decline in trade turnover, and energy problems. The ruling regime routinely blames adverse external environment for the situation at home

Minister of Infrastructure Vladimir Bolea, commenting on the recent collapse of the information systems at the capital’s airport, was quick to identify the usual culprit for Moldova’s political elite – Russia. Specifically, the Russian drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian territory, which triggered widespread power outages. Due to the interconnectedness of the energy infrastructure, part of the airport’s equipment was damaged. According to Bolea, only the completion of the Chisinau–Vulcanesti power line, scheduled for the end of the year, will ensure energy independence and prevent such incidents in the future. In fact, achieving this goal will be difficult, as Moldova is now more dependent than ever on electricity imports (over 70% of its demand following the shutdown of cogeneration operations at thermal power plants). The MoldGRES, which remains under the control of the Transnistrian authorities and Moscow, continues to play a key role in balancing the energy system. However, the station’s future operations remain uncertain amid unclear gas supply prospects and the halt in electricity deliveries to the right bank. This hampers the system’s balance and leads to the deterioration of the industrial facility, which cannot be repaired using revenue from the local market. Moreover, there is little reason to believe that attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure will cease, given the limited progress in the Istanbul negotiations and the new phase of conflict escalation. Moldova is unlikely to get the necessary respite to complete the Vulcanesti power line without disruptions, especially amid cuts to energy projects previously funded by Washington. Meanwhile, official Chisinau has never voiced support for the Istanbul process, nor has it publicly emphasized the importance of a moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure, violated primarily by Kyiv. In other words, Moldova has failed to use its own, albeit limited, diplomatic tools to help stabilize the situation along its borders. On the contrary, the PAS regime often finds it convenient to point to external factors to explain the government’s current flaws. Despite existing coordination, Ukraine not only contributes to infrastructure issues, increases pressure on the agricultural sector, and fuels a state of hybrid confrontation between Chisinau and Moscow, but also periodically becomes a source of more routine problems – migration risks, rising crime rates, including various fraud schemes. In any case, such a neighborhood serves as a convenient argument for the ruling party, which constantly invokes the theme of a brutal war and Russia’s unlawful invasion. However, these threats are sometimes amplified and exaggerated by the Moldovan leadership itself. For example, Prime Minister Dorin Recean, in a recent interview with a Western outlet, claimed that Russia plans to deploy 10,000 troops to Transnistria. Chisinau’s bet on the Romanian presidential election paid off. The elected President of Romania expressed gratitude to the Moldovan authorities, although the opposing candidate, George Simion, is already calling to “take revenge on Sandu” in the upcoming parliamentary elections in September. Nevertheless, the situation in Bucharest is far from ideal for its neighbors across the Prut. Coalition talks have failed, ministerial posts remain unallocated, and there is no consensus on austerity measures or tax hikes. The current trajectory suggests that Romania, despite being Moldova’s key partner, may itself face economic and political instability, along with growing public unrest. This, in turn, could objectively reduce its focus and capacity to support the PAS regime in Chisinau. Meanwhile, Romania is expected to play a leading role in strengthening Moldova’s energy independence from Moscow and integrating it into the ENTSO-E power grid. Vlad Filat, the former prime minister who continues to harshly criticize the current authorities and the president personally in the media, has calculated that every child born last year (along with the rest of the country’s citizens) is already burdened with a debt of 36,500 lei. The total debt has doubled over the past five years, and the grants and loans being attracted are no longer sufficient to service previously incurred obligations. Notably, this mounting debt has done little to stimulate economic growth: GDP is stagnating, industrial and agricultural production as well as exports have declined, while the government refuses to address sectoral issues. Instead, it has focused all efforts on running an information and propaganda campaign under the slogan “Moldova Can”, once again funded by taxpayers. In a bid to fill budget gaps, the PAS regime is auctioning off the country’s remaining assets, but investors have shown genuine interest only in commercially viable enterprises (such as the Purcari winery, for example). As for transport infrastructure, efforts to sell it off have been far less successful. The government is currently attempting to improve the situation at the state-owned enterprise Moldova Railway by selling it to Polish buyers, while tenders and passenger conditions at Chisinau Airport have turned into a saga with a predictably disappointing ending. The dismantling of Moldovagaz and the resale of its assets may yield short-term financial benefits, but those gains are likely to primarily serve individuals with direct control over the state-owned Energocom company. The country lacks money, people, jobs, and infrastructure, all while being burdened by high prices, constant man-made disasters, and political scandals. Yet the PAS authorities never admit that all these problems are the result of their inefficient, authoritarian, and corrupt governance. There are always excuses blaming unfavorable external circumstances. Especially since Ukraine and Romania provide such pretexts, effectively preserving the anti-democratic bankrupt regime built by Maia Sandu and supported by Brussels.